Well, I think it's possible that the NWC gold cart could reach $50k one day. Out of everything in the world that has the Nintendo name on it, it would be the first to see that amount. There were only, what, 26 of these ever made? I think it's possible if 1)Nintendo continues to roll on strong as a company, 2) the demand is there for the item, and 3) there is more than one person with deep pocketbooks with that demand.
You guys sound shocked about the NWC, but a gold one sold for $15,000 and a freaking Neo Geo game sold years ago For $17,000+, so you severely underestimate the power of collectors and their wallets as they get older.
No, not shocked, dumbfounded is more like it. I sure don't see buyers hitting that $15,000-$17,000 range on a regular basis. I'm dumbfounded that collectors take the notion that their individual collection is worth money to any other collector. I'm dumbfounded that a few collectors have $ signs in their eyes, thinking one day their gonna cash in big like a lotto. I'm dumbfounded that a collector thinks at any given time of their choosing that they'll realize their investment. I'm dumbfounded that collectors who view this as investing don't realize their money is tied up until someone chooses to buy their investment.
I'll never realize the true worth of my collection due to the fact that the time I have invested is worth far more than the money I have spent.
I think the point should not be what you think they are worth...they are only worth what someone is willing to pay for them.
I for one wouldn't be saving up to spend $50,000 on a game that only a few others would spend that much money on. Who cares if someone paid that much for one today even, it doesn't make yours worth that much until someone paid x amount of dollars for yours.
There is no way that my 10-year-old nephew would even be vaguely interested in hardcore NES collecting...he's into the Wii...period.
EDIT - I wonder what would happen if all of the owners of the Gold NWC put their copy up on eBay...would they all sell...would they all sell for $15,000? I seriously doubt it...how many would sell though? Would the ones that didn't sell mean that theirs are worth $15,000...no. Why? Becasue nobody bought them.
I guess it will all depend on Someone extreemly rich being intrested in nintendo years from now.Video games at this point in time dont hold a candle to the history of baseball cards and comic books. The upper crust of society has no intrest in video games. they want the paintings, cars, funiture, etc.
EDIT - I wonder what would happen if all of the owners of the Gold NWC put their copy up on eBay...would they all sell...would they all sell for $15,000? I seriously doubt it...how many would sell though? Would the ones that didn't sell mean that theirs are worth $15,000...no. Why? Becasue nobody bought them.
They would sell but the price would drop considerably. Even on this site there are only a very few people willing to spend over a thousand for a game. The way I look at it is. If you have your home paid for, car paid for, have plenty of money to live on, have money set aside for things that might come up, then you still have the money to shell out for a game. go for it. If you go in debt your a idiot. Gambling on the price of video games holding there value or going up in my opinion is not a very smart idea. I know I could at this time get a fair amout out of my collection but I veiw it as money spent ill never get back.
The way I look at it is. If you have your home paid for, car paid for, have plenty of money to live on, have money set aside for things that might come up, then you still have the money to shell out for a game. go for it. If you go in debt your a idiot. Gambling on the price of video games holding there value or going up in my opinion is not a very smart idea. I know I could at this time get a fair amout out of my collection but I veiw it as money spent ill never get back.
LOL at people not interested in this stuff. Atari is still a generation ahead, and the rares if they ever show up, still sell for thousands, so that's doubtful.
About baseball cards, newer cards were easier to find in abundance. Can't compare apples to oranges here. The NES is still the single most important console made today, and with the Wii shoving NES games down the throats of people now, a whole NEW generation for the next 20-30 years will be spoonfed on Super Mario Bros all over again.
You guys sound shocked about the NWC, but a gold one sold for $15,000 and a freaking Neo Geo game sold years ago For $17,000+, so you severely underestimate the power of collectors and their wallets as they get older.
Yes right now they sold for 15K and 17K respectively. Let's see what happens 3-4 generations from now like Baseball cards.
Baseball cards didn't die because of the abundance, they died because kids got involved in other things; other trading cards even. Yu-Gi-Oh, Pokemon, etc.
My kids' kids (my grandkids) won't give a crap about NES. And if they do, I'll bet they won't be dropping 50K on a game.
Video Games as a whole aren't as widely an accepted collectors item as say art, cars, etc.
Let's take Baseball cards again as an example. I have 3-4 duplicates of Hank Aaron cards from the mid 1950's. All graded at 8+.
Beckett says they should have been worth a few hundred each. I took them to several baseball card shops and shows to sell some of the duplicates and they weren't even willing to offer me more than 1/4 what it was worth. Reason they all said? Baseball card collectors were a dying breed and they'd have a VERY hard time making any money back on them. Had I sold them 10-12 years ago though, I could have made a good bit of money.
Another example of this would be my cousins on my mother's side of the family. My mom has 9 brothers and sisters and therefore I have like 30 cousins, 98% of which are younger than me.
Most are between the ages of 10 and 16 now (14-20 years younger than I). They know what the NES is, hell a few of them used to play mine when they came over or I babysat them.
I can tell you right now they don't care about NES. All they care about is PS2, PS3, Xbox360. They care about graphics and new gen technology. Their kids are going to have an even LESS interest. And their grandkids won't even know what the NES is.
ANYONE banking that Video Games will make them some huge profit 20+ years from now is outright not very smart.
Another totally different aspect is the recently discussed topic of degredation of data on the NES carts. I wonder what a NWC cart is worth with corrupt data 50 years from now?
I don't think the nwc gold will be the #1 item long term but I do think it will appreciate nicely. You guys make it sound like game collecting is about to die when it hasn't even started yet. The user base of ps2 was what like 100 million? Only the tiniest percentage of those people need to become game collectors for the hobby to grow in leaps and bounds.
Based on the current popularity of video games, even if the medium died out tomorrow there's another 30 - 50 years of gas in the tank. VG collecting may become something completely different than what you/we expect it to become, but it sure as hell isn't dying any time soon. Just about every boy in the freakin' industrialized world is hooked on games right now, today.
For all intents and purposes comics stopped being read (in a big way) in the early 90s... and while the hobby is massively different today from what anyone could have predicted then, its still going strong. For how long... who knows. They DO have a problem because comics haven't been relevant in at least 15 years. But games are not only relevant today they are they are dominating in terms of a pastime for kids.
I don't think the nwc gold will be the #1 item long term but I do think it will appreciate nicely. You guys make it sound like game collecting is about to die when it hasn't even started yet. The user base of ps2 was what like 100 million? Only the tiniest percentage of those people need to become game collectors for the hobby to grow in leaps and bounds.
I actually said that the market was hot right now.
We also aren't talking about the video game market as a whole, we are talking about just NES. And those PS2 people, will want to go back and play PS2, not the NES.
But people banking on their collections making them rich 20+ years from now, just puts a little chuckle inside me.
I think a few people who don't realize this are just trying to rationalize to themselves that the many thousands they spent was a good idea. When in the long run, it probably won't be.
On the other hand, if you bought all this to enjoy it and you appreciate it, more power to you.
wii? Ds? virtual console? constant releases like the gba nes classics, chrono trigger and dw 4 for ds, revamps of old franchises like bionic commando.... I think you sorely underestimate the interest in the old games.
I don't think the nwc gold will be the #1 item long term but I do think it will appreciate nicely. You guys make it sound like game collecting is about to die when it hasn't even started yet. The user base of ps2 was what like 100 million? Only the tiniest percentage of those people need to become game collectors for the hobby to grow in leaps and bounds.
I actually said that the market was hot right now.
We also aren't talking about the video game market as a whole, we are talking about just NES. And those PS2 people, will want to go back and play PS2, not the NES.
But people banking on their collections making them rich 20+ years from now, just puts a little chuckle inside me.
Certainly trying to get rich off it is a bad idea... if nothing else there's no way to know what collectors 20 years from now will be into... one thing's for sure... it won't be the same stuff collectors today desire. But there's nothing wrong with having a collection that one both enjoys and hopes will appreciate a little too.
wii? Ds? virtual console? constant releases like the gba nes classics, chrono trigger and dw 4 for ds, revamps of old franchises like bionic commando.... I think you sorely underestimate the interest in the old games.
And I am willing to bet they have not sold and will never sell as well as the originals.
I am also not talking about NOW (as in this day and age), the argument was 15-25+ years from now (at a minimum 2+ generations).
I am also willing to wager that the majority of those that are buying those games ARE the people who grew up with them, who don't have a NES or Genesis, etc anymore. The sales probably aren't driven by 8-12 year olds because they are now interested in the NES.
I don't think the nwc gold will be the #1 item long term but I do think it will appreciate nicely. You guys make it sound like game collecting is about to die when it hasn't even started yet. The user base of ps2 was what like 100 million? Only the tiniest percentage of those people need to become game collectors for the hobby to grow in leaps and bounds.
I actually said that the market was hot right now.
We also aren't talking about the video game market as a whole, we are talking about just NES. And those PS2 people, will want to go back and play PS2, not the NES.
But people banking on their collections making them rich 20+ years from now, just puts a little chuckle inside me.
Certainly trying to get rich off it is a bad idea... if nothing else there's no way to know what collectors 20 years from now will be into... one thing's for sure... it won't be the same stuff collectors today desire. But there's nothing wrong with having a collection that one both enjoys and hopes will appreciate a little too.
Enjoyment and appreciation are one thing, but people who do it to SOLELY profit many years from now just isn't smart.
wii? Ds? virtual console? constant releases like the gba nes classics, chrono trigger and dw 4 for ds, revamps of old franchises like bionic commando.... I think you sorely underestimate the interest in the old games.
And I a willing to bet they have not sold and will never sell as well as the originals.
I am also not talking about NOW (as in this day and age), the argument was 15-25+ years from now (at a minimum 2+ generations).
sorry, misunderstood you. 20 years is a long way out to predict, but I think there's a lot more gas in the tank than that SO LONG AS nintendo is still making games. If they go the way of atari all bets are off
Anybody collecting games to cash in is collecting for the wrong reasons all together, but I couldn't agree more with everything that Bronty has said so far. Almost half of America plays video games. The industry is hotter than ever right now, and with Nintendo constantly shoving classic games down peoples throats, i believe that people will always have an appreciation for the classics. Even if .01% of gamers now become collectors it still means the collecting hobby is going to grow immensely from what it is now.
Who knows. Maybe the hobby is going to die in a few years, there really is no way of ever knowing. I know I didn't drop $5.3k on a Myriad to make money from it. I think that a 5.3k Myriad could possibly be the most that anybody will ever pay for that game, but nobody can know for sure. But a Myriad is in NO WAY comparable to a NWC. NWC is the holy grail. End of story.
Anybody collecting games to cash in is collecting for the wrong reasons all together, but I couldn't agree more with everything that Bronty has said so far. Almost half of America plays video games. The industry is hotter than ever right now, and with Nintendo constantly shoving classic games down peoples throats, i believe that people will always have an appreciation for the classics. Even if .01% of gamers now become collectors it still means the collecting hobby is going to grow immensely from what it is now.
Who knows. Maybe the hobby is going to die in a few years, there really is no way of ever knowing. I know I didn't drop $5.3k on a Myriad to make money from it. I think that a 5.3k Myriad could possibly be the most that anybody will ever pay for that game, but nobody can know for sure. But a Myriad is in NO WAY comparable to a NWC. NWC is the holy grail. End of story.
I don't think you understand really. No one is talking about now. The fact that the market is hot right now has been stated by many, including myself.
The point is, that the people EATING up the classics right now, are they people that grew up with them (who are now 20-35+ years old). Not 8-12 year olds who have never touched a NES or didn't grow up with a NES.
Those same people and THEIR kids are the ones that will be collecting NES in 20+ years? The ones that you(general for people) hope to get big $$ from? NO WAY!
Anybody collecting games to cash in is collecting for the wrong reasons all together, but I couldn't agree more with everything that Bronty has said so far. Almost half of America plays video games. The industry is hotter than ever right now, and with Nintendo constantly shoving classic games down peoples throats, i believe that people will always have an appreciation for the classics. Even if .01% of gamers now become collectors it still means the collecting hobby is going to grow immensely from what it is now.
Who knows. Maybe the hobby is going to die in a few years, there really is no way of ever knowing. I know I didn't drop $5.3k on a Myriad to make money from it. I think that a 5.3k Myriad could possibly be the most that anybody will ever pay for that game, but nobody can know for sure. But a Myriad is in NO WAY comparable to a NWC. NWC is the holy grail. End of story.
I don't think you understand really. No one is talking about now. The fact that the market is hot right now has been stated by many, including myself.
The point is, that the people EATING up the classics right now, are they people that grew up with them (who are now 20-35+ years old). Not 8-12 year olds who have never touched a NES or didn't grow up with a NES.
Those same people and THEIR kids are the ones that will be collecting NES in 20+ years? The ones that you(general for people) hope to get big $$ from? NO WAY!
but look at nick for a case study. the guy is 21 years old. He wasn't BORN YET (!!) when the nes was released. There will be some collectors who go backwards in terms of what they collect if there is a tie to the current material.
When I was 12 I was collecting iron man comics published before I was born, because I bought #226 off the stands and decided to collect the rest. same principle.
Anybody collecting games to cash in is collecting for the wrong reasons all together, but I couldn't agree more with everything that Bronty has said so far. Almost half of America plays video games. The industry is hotter than ever right now, and with Nintendo constantly shoving classic games down peoples throats, i believe that people will always have an appreciation for the classics. Even if .01% of gamers now become collectors it still means the collecting hobby is going to grow immensely from what it is now.
Who knows. Maybe the hobby is going to die in a few years, there really is no way of ever knowing. I know I didn't drop $5.3k on a Myriad to make money from it. I think that a 5.3k Myriad could possibly be the most that anybody will ever pay for that game, but nobody can know for sure. But a Myriad is in NO WAY comparable to a NWC. NWC is the holy grail. End of story.
I don't think you understand really. No one is talking about now. The fact that the market is hot right now has been stated by many, including myself.
The point is, that the people EATING up the classics right now, are they people that grew up with them (who are now 20-35+ years old). Not 8-12 year olds who have never touched a NES or didn't grow up with a NES.
Those same people and THEIR kids are the ones that will be collecting NES in 20+ years? The ones that you(general for people) hope to get big $$ from? NO WAY!
but look at nick for a case study. the guy is 21 years old. He wasn't BORN YET (!!) when the nes was released. There will be some collectors who go backwards in terms of what they collect if there is a tie to the current material.
When I was 12 I was collecting iron man comics published before I was born, because I bought #226 off the stands and decided to collect the rest. same principle.
But by the time he was 3-4 the NES was just on its way out with the SNES coming.
He probably had siblings or cousins with the system. Therefore he was, more than likely, exposed during the same generation.
I also bet those Ironman comics didn't cost a 12 year old 5-50K.
its no different than nick jr having a cousin with a virtual console today (shrug) and playing SMB with that cousin
the ironman comics didn't cost that much, but they were still a challenge for me to acquire at the time. I made $30/mth back then, but still managed to find a way to acquire a suspense #39 for the then princely cash/trade price of $400
5-50k isn't that much. its a lot for regular guys like you and me but its squat for people with money
its no different than nick jr having a cousin with a virtual console today (shrug) and playing SMB with that cousin
Sure there is. They MAY have an interest in the game, but I'll bet they WON'T be buying the cartridges. They'll go home and bug Mom and Dad to get them a Wii so they can download it themselves.
The reason most of us collect NES or other systems is nostalgia. Today young kids or their kids won't have that same feeling towards the NES.
Geez I go to bed, wake-up and this thread doubled. No need for me to repeat the same stuff, but collecting boils down to one simple thing:
Amount of collector's coming in vs. Amount of collector's leaving
Right now, NES is HOT because new people are coming in much faster than people are leaving. I owned exactly ZERO NES items as recently as July 2008, now I have shelves and bookcases full of crap. The demand continues to grow, and thus the prices shoot up. "Rarity" of an item only indirectly drives the price, it is the DEMAND that drives the price. Rarity increases demand, which increases price. The rarest item in the world isn't worth a nickel unless the demand is there as well.
Having said this, do you guys honestly believe the 20 years from now there will be new collectors coming in faster than people leave? If the answer is yes, then prices go up. If the answer is no, then prices go down. It really is that simple.
Let's look at an example, even if the numbers aren't accurate.
Let's say 1% of collectors stop collecting every year.... could be laid off and need money, could lose interest, could start collecting something else, etc.
Now if you have 1,000 NES collectors today, that means 10 quit every year and sell off. But right now we also have much more than 10 people entering collecting, so the prices are going up aburdly.
Let's fast forward to 20 years from now, maybe we'll have 100,000 NES collectors by then. If 1% quit, that's 1,000 NES collectors that leave the game. That means you'd have to have at least 1,000 NEW collectors just to keep the prices stable, and you seriously can't expect the game to be "HOTTER" in 20 years than it is now?
One last thing, I know the response will be "Well there's only 26 Gold NWCs in existence, so they don't apply to this type of thinking". I'll give you that argument, NWC could be an exception to the rule (as long as the demand is there). However, I think NES collecting as a whole will lose steam in the long term.
(And in the short term it could as well, unemployment continues to skyrocket and this will 1. Potentially force people to sell , 2. Discourage new collectors and 3. Cause current collectors to spend wisely)
NES is hot right now because the people that enjoyed it as kids now have money. Most are in their mid-20's to early 30's. Have somewhat stable income.
And now they want to relive some of that nostalgia.
This won't hold true for the next generation, even moreso the one after that, etc.
2+ generations removed from now, "your" collection will be worthless.
If you collect to relive some of the nostalgia and it brings some enjoyment, great, but if you collect solely to eventually profit from it (banking a NWC gold will hit 50k+ -- chuckle), you're not be very smart with your money.
For the record I hope NES prices drop drastically in the next 20 years... then it would make it feasible for me to collect everything! However, I don't think they will for this simple reason... there is always going to be those guys out there willing to pay a ridiculous price for a very rare game and the people that have that game won't sell unless they are offered an amount they can't refuse. You guys don't think that the kids today aren't going to go back further once they collect every Wii game made? They are going to want to get the actual game cartridge of the NES/SNES/N64 game they grew up playing on the virtual console. No doubt there will be less people collecting in 20+ years but during that span NES games are going to become more rare. The few that have the determination will pay any price to attempt to complete a set. I collect games that I never played as a kid as well as games I did, just like kids (future collector's) today will start out collecting the actual NES games they played and then go after the ones they didn't. But I hope you guys are right and I hope all game prices go through the floor! I guess time will only tell!
However, I don't think they will for this simple reason... there is always going to be those guys out there willing to pay a ridiculous price for a very rare game and the people that have that game won't sell unless they are offered an amount they can't refuse. You guys don't think that the kids today aren't going to go back further once they collect every Wii game made? They are going to want to get the actual game cartridge of the NES/SNES/N64 game they grew up playing on the virtual console. No doubt there will be less people collecting in 20+ years but during that span NES games are going to become more rare. The few that have the determination will pay any price to attempt to complete a set.
Well collecting every Wii game is going to be insane considering the library is over 1,000 games already and the console hasn't even "peaked" yet in terms of popularity. The Wii library will be at least twice as large as NES, if not much more.
Also, if people want to go back and get the NES/SNES/N64 game, we are talking about "populars" such as Metroid, Mario, Starfox, Mario Kart, Donkey Kong, Zelda, etc. Popular games will always hold value no matter what... but where does the 50k NWC factor into that?
Also, 50k today isn't 50k 20 years from now. I'm curious to see how the economy will turn out, but it is quite feasible that severe inflation could occur after this. 50k in 20 years could be worth 40k today, or 30k today, etc. It's impossible to tell and speculating is entertaining but all just a matter of opinion...
its no different than nick jr having a cousin with a virtual console today (shrug) and playing SMB with that cousin
Sure there is. They MAY have an interest in the game, but I'll bet they WON'T be buying the cartridges.
we can discuss that point all day, but like jonebone said that kind of thinking doesn't applying when you're talking about some of the best items in the hobby. your loose gray brick or average CIB isn't going to be worth anything or go up any IMO but the best stuff will keep on climbin'.
you seem to think 50k is impossible but that's only implying a tripling in value in 11 years. 30k in six years (the other half the prediction and maybe the half we should focus on since you seem to be throwing up blinders at the idea of 50k) is saying the nwc gold will go up 3k a year. Again, not exactly an earth shattering prognostication. A year is a long time.
the gold nwc has doubled in the EIGHTEEN MONTHS and yet a prediction of it doubling again in six years is somehow crazy? the 30k/50k is actually predicting a SLOWDOWN in the rate of appreciation
i personally believe collecting NES games will go downhill. There are very few NES collectors out there right now. Maybe what, a few hundred serious ones? Maybe a thousand? We grow up. We move on. Sure, it will still mean something to us, but no one younger than our generation really cares. I tell a kid that I collect old-school Nintendo games - they ask about N64 games :-\. Many of them don't even know what NES was/is. There might be a few die hard collectors born, but we are probably the majority right now.
If you look at it like a normal bell curve, we are probably getting close to reaching the peak right now, which will shortly fall into a gradual decline. There will be some stragglers, but it will become even more of a niche thing than it is now. That doesn't mean the rare games will get cheap. It just means less people will be willing to pay 10k+ for a game.
Just my thoughts. Could be wrong. I know everyone believes what they want to believe.
Comments
You guys sound shocked about the NWC, but a gold one sold for $15,000 and a freaking Neo Geo game sold years ago For $17,000+, so you severely underestimate the power of collectors and their wallets as they get older.
No, not shocked, dumbfounded is more like it. I sure don't see buyers hitting that $15,000-$17,000 range on a regular basis. I'm dumbfounded that collectors take the notion that their individual collection is worth money to any other collector. I'm dumbfounded that a few collectors have $ signs in their eyes, thinking one day their gonna cash in big like a lotto. I'm dumbfounded that a collector thinks at any given time of their choosing that they'll realize their investment. I'm dumbfounded that collectors who view this as investing don't realize their money is tied up until someone chooses to buy their investment.
I'll never realize the true worth of my collection due to the fact that the time I have invested is worth far more than the money I have spent.
I think the point should not be what you think they are worth...they are only worth what someone is willing to pay for them.
I for one wouldn't be saving up to spend $50,000 on a game that only a few others would spend that much money on. Who cares if someone paid that much for one today even, it doesn't make yours worth that much until someone paid x amount of dollars for yours.
There is no way that my 10-year-old nephew would even be vaguely interested in hardcore NES collecting...he's into the Wii...period.
EDIT - I wonder what would happen if all of the owners of the Gold NWC put their copy up on eBay...would they all sell...would they all sell for $15,000? I seriously doubt it...how many would sell though? Would the ones that didn't sell mean that theirs are worth $15,000...no. Why? Becasue nobody bought them.
I guess it will all depend on Someone extreemly rich being intrested in nintendo years from now.Video games at this point in time dont hold a candle to the history of baseball cards and comic books. The upper crust of society has no intrest in video games. they want the paintings, cars, funiture, etc.
EDIT - I wonder what would happen if all of the owners of the Gold NWC put their copy up on eBay...would they all sell...would they all sell for $15,000? I seriously doubt it...how many would sell though? Would the ones that didn't sell mean that theirs are worth $15,000...no. Why? Becasue nobody bought them.
They would sell but the price would drop considerably. Even on this site there are only a very few people willing to spend over a thousand for a game. The way I look at it is. If you have your home paid for, car paid for, have plenty of money to live on, have money set aside for things that might come up, then you still have the money to shell out for a game. go for it. If you go in debt your a idiot. Gambling on the price of video games holding there value or going up in my opinion is not a very smart idea. I know I could at this time get a fair amout out of my collection but I veiw it as money spent ill never get back.
The way I look at it is. If you have your home paid for, car paid for, have plenty of money to live on, have money set aside for things that might come up, then you still have the money to shell out for a game. go for it. If you go in debt your a idiot. Gambling on the price of video games holding there value or going up in my opinion is not a very smart idea. I know I could at this time get a fair amout out of my collection but I veiw it as money spent ill never get back.
Very wise advice
LOL at people not interested in this stuff. Atari is still a generation ahead, and the rares if they ever show up, still sell for thousands, so that's doubtful.
About baseball cards, newer cards were easier to find in abundance. Can't compare apples to oranges here. The NES is still the single most important console made today, and with the Wii shoving NES games down the throats of people now, a whole NEW generation for the next 20-30 years will be spoonfed on Super Mario Bros all over again.
You guys sound shocked about the NWC, but a gold one sold for $15,000 and a freaking Neo Geo game sold years ago For $17,000+, so you severely underestimate the power of collectors and their wallets as they get older.
Yes right now they sold for 15K and 17K respectively. Let's see what happens 3-4 generations from now like Baseball cards.
Baseball cards didn't die because of the abundance, they died because kids got involved in other things; other trading cards even. Yu-Gi-Oh, Pokemon, etc.
My kids' kids (my grandkids) won't give a crap about NES. And if they do, I'll bet they won't be dropping 50K on a game.
Video Games as a whole aren't as widely an accepted collectors item as say art, cars, etc.
Let's take Baseball cards again as an example. I have 3-4 duplicates of Hank Aaron cards from the mid 1950's. All graded at 8+.
Beckett says they should have been worth a few hundred each. I took them to several baseball card shops and shows to sell some of the duplicates and they weren't even willing to offer me more than 1/4 what it was worth. Reason they all said? Baseball card collectors were a dying breed and they'd have a VERY hard time making any money back on them. Had I sold them 10-12 years ago though, I could have made a good bit of money.
Another example of this would be my cousins on my mother's side of the family. My mom has 9 brothers and sisters and therefore I have like 30 cousins, 98% of which are younger than me.
Most are between the ages of 10 and 16 now (14-20 years younger than I). They know what the NES is, hell a few of them used to play mine when they came over or I babysat them.
I can tell you right now they don't care about NES. All they care about is PS2, PS3, Xbox360. They care about graphics and new gen technology. Their kids are going to have an even LESS interest. And their grandkids won't even know what the NES is.
ANYONE banking that Video Games will make them some huge profit 20+ years from now is outright not very smart.
50 years from now NWC = Honus Wagner
Not even close.
I don't think the nwc gold will be the #1 item long term but I do think it will appreciate nicely. You guys make it sound like game collecting is about to die when it hasn't even started yet. The user base of ps2 was what like 100 million? Only the tiniest percentage of those people need to become game collectors for the hobby to grow in leaps and bounds.
Based on the current popularity of video games, even if the medium died out tomorrow there's another 30 - 50 years of gas in the tank. VG collecting may become something completely different than what you/we expect it to become, but it sure as hell isn't dying any time soon. Just about every boy in the freakin' industrialized world is hooked on games right now, today.
For all intents and purposes comics stopped being read (in a big way) in the early 90s... and while the hobby is massively different today from what anyone could have predicted then, its still going strong. For how long... who knows. They DO have a problem because comics haven't been relevant in at least 15 years. But games are not only relevant today they are they are dominating in terms of a pastime for kids.
I don't think the nwc gold will be the #1 item long term but I do think it will appreciate nicely. You guys make it sound like game collecting is about to die when it hasn't even started yet. The user base of ps2 was what like 100 million? Only the tiniest percentage of those people need to become game collectors for the hobby to grow in leaps and bounds.
I actually said that the market was hot right now.
We also aren't talking about the video game market as a whole, we are talking about just NES. And those PS2 people, will want to go back and play PS2, not the NES.
But people banking on their collections making them rich 20+ years from now, just puts a little chuckle inside me.
I think a few people who don't realize this are just trying to rationalize to themselves that the many thousands they spent was a good idea. When in the long run, it probably won't be.
On the other hand, if you bought all this to enjoy it and you appreciate it, more power to you.
today's big franchises started on the NES. so there will always be some interest
Dwindling with each passing day...
I don't think the nwc gold will be the #1 item long term but I do think it will appreciate nicely. You guys make it sound like game collecting is about to die when it hasn't even started yet. The user base of ps2 was what like 100 million? Only the tiniest percentage of those people need to become game collectors for the hobby to grow in leaps and bounds.
I actually said that the market was hot right now.
We also aren't talking about the video game market as a whole, we are talking about just NES. And those PS2 people, will want to go back and play PS2, not the NES.
But people banking on their collections making them rich 20+ years from now, just puts a little chuckle inside me.
Certainly trying to get rich off it is a bad idea... if nothing else there's no way to know what collectors 20 years from now will be into... one thing's for sure... it won't be the same stuff collectors today desire. But there's nothing wrong with having a collection that one both enjoys and hopes will appreciate a little too.
wii? Ds? virtual console? constant releases like the gba nes classics, chrono trigger and dw 4 for ds, revamps of old franchises like bionic commando.... I think you sorely underestimate the interest in the old games.
And I am willing to bet they have not sold and will never sell as well as the originals.
I am also not talking about NOW (as in this day and age), the argument was 15-25+ years from now (at a minimum 2+ generations).
I am also willing to wager that the majority of those that are buying those games ARE the people who grew up with them, who don't have a NES or Genesis, etc anymore. The sales probably aren't driven by 8-12 year olds because they are now interested in the NES.
I don't think the nwc gold will be the #1 item long term but I do think it will appreciate nicely. You guys make it sound like game collecting is about to die when it hasn't even started yet. The user base of ps2 was what like 100 million? Only the tiniest percentage of those people need to become game collectors for the hobby to grow in leaps and bounds.
I actually said that the market was hot right now.
We also aren't talking about the video game market as a whole, we are talking about just NES. And those PS2 people, will want to go back and play PS2, not the NES.
But people banking on their collections making them rich 20+ years from now, just puts a little chuckle inside me.
Certainly trying to get rich off it is a bad idea... if nothing else there's no way to know what collectors 20 years from now will be into... one thing's for sure... it won't be the same stuff collectors today desire. But there's nothing wrong with having a collection that one both enjoys and hopes will appreciate a little too.
Enjoyment and appreciation are one thing, but people who do it to SOLELY profit many years from now just isn't smart.
wii? Ds? virtual console? constant releases like the gba nes classics, chrono trigger and dw 4 for ds, revamps of old franchises like bionic commando.... I think you sorely underestimate the interest in the old games.
And I a willing to bet they have not sold and will never sell as well as the originals.
I am also not talking about NOW (as in this day and age), the argument was 15-25+ years from now (at a minimum 2+ generations).
sorry, misunderstood you. 20 years is a long way out to predict, but I think there's a lot more gas in the tank than that SO LONG AS nintendo is still making games. If they go the way of atari all bets are off
Who knows. Maybe the hobby is going to die in a few years, there really is no way of ever knowing. I know I didn't drop $5.3k on a Myriad to make money from it. I think that a 5.3k Myriad could possibly be the most that anybody will ever pay for that game, but nobody can know for sure. But a Myriad is in NO WAY comparable to a NWC. NWC is the holy grail. End of story.
Anybody collecting games to cash in is collecting for the wrong reasons all together, but I couldn't agree more with everything that Bronty has said so far. Almost half of America plays video games. The industry is hotter than ever right now, and with Nintendo constantly shoving classic games down peoples throats, i believe that people will always have an appreciation for the classics. Even if .01% of gamers now become collectors it still means the collecting hobby is going to grow immensely from what it is now.
Who knows. Maybe the hobby is going to die in a few years, there really is no way of ever knowing. I know I didn't drop $5.3k on a Myriad to make money from it. I think that a 5.3k Myriad could possibly be the most that anybody will ever pay for that game, but nobody can know for sure. But a Myriad is in NO WAY comparable to a NWC. NWC is the holy grail. End of story.
I don't think you understand really. No one is talking about now. The fact that the market is hot right now has been stated by many, including myself.
The point is, that the people EATING up the classics right now, are they people that grew up with them (who are now 20-35+ years old). Not 8-12 year olds who have never touched a NES or didn't grow up with a NES.
Those same people and THEIR kids are the ones that will be collecting NES in 20+ years? The ones that you(general for people) hope to get big $$ from? NO WAY!
Anybody collecting games to cash in is collecting for the wrong reasons all together, but I couldn't agree more with everything that Bronty has said so far. Almost half of America plays video games. The industry is hotter than ever right now, and with Nintendo constantly shoving classic games down peoples throats, i believe that people will always have an appreciation for the classics. Even if .01% of gamers now become collectors it still means the collecting hobby is going to grow immensely from what it is now.
Who knows. Maybe the hobby is going to die in a few years, there really is no way of ever knowing. I know I didn't drop $5.3k on a Myriad to make money from it. I think that a 5.3k Myriad could possibly be the most that anybody will ever pay for that game, but nobody can know for sure. But a Myriad is in NO WAY comparable to a NWC. NWC is the holy grail. End of story.
I don't think you understand really. No one is talking about now. The fact that the market is hot right now has been stated by many, including myself.
The point is, that the people EATING up the classics right now, are they people that grew up with them (who are now 20-35+ years old). Not 8-12 year olds who have never touched a NES or didn't grow up with a NES.
Those same people and THEIR kids are the ones that will be collecting NES in 20+ years? The ones that you(general for people) hope to get big $$ from? NO WAY!
but look at nick for a case study. the guy is 21 years old. He wasn't BORN YET (!!) when the nes was released. There will be some collectors who go backwards in terms of what they collect if there is a tie to the current material.
When I was 12 I was collecting iron man comics published before I was born, because I bought #226 off the stands and decided to collect the rest. same principle.
Anybody collecting games to cash in is collecting for the wrong reasons all together, but I couldn't agree more with everything that Bronty has said so far. Almost half of America plays video games. The industry is hotter than ever right now, and with Nintendo constantly shoving classic games down peoples throats, i believe that people will always have an appreciation for the classics. Even if .01% of gamers now become collectors it still means the collecting hobby is going to grow immensely from what it is now.
Who knows. Maybe the hobby is going to die in a few years, there really is no way of ever knowing. I know I didn't drop $5.3k on a Myriad to make money from it. I think that a 5.3k Myriad could possibly be the most that anybody will ever pay for that game, but nobody can know for sure. But a Myriad is in NO WAY comparable to a NWC. NWC is the holy grail. End of story.
I don't think you understand really. No one is talking about now. The fact that the market is hot right now has been stated by many, including myself.
The point is, that the people EATING up the classics right now, are they people that grew up with them (who are now 20-35+ years old). Not 8-12 year olds who have never touched a NES or didn't grow up with a NES.
Those same people and THEIR kids are the ones that will be collecting NES in 20+ years? The ones that you(general for people) hope to get big $$ from? NO WAY!
but look at nick for a case study. the guy is 21 years old. He wasn't BORN YET (!!) when the nes was released. There will be some collectors who go backwards in terms of what they collect if there is a tie to the current material.
When I was 12 I was collecting iron man comics published before I was born, because I bought #226 off the stands and decided to collect the rest. same principle.
But by the time he was 3-4 the NES was just on its way out with the SNES coming.
He probably had siblings or cousins with the system. Therefore he was, more than likely, exposed during the same generation.
I also bet those Ironman comics didn't cost a 12 year old 5-50K.
the ironman comics didn't cost that much, but they were still a challenge for me to acquire at the time. I made $30/mth back then, but still managed to find a way to acquire a suspense #39 for the then princely cash/trade price of $400
5-50k isn't that much. its a lot for regular guys like you and me but its squat for people with money
its no different than nick jr having a cousin with a virtual console today (shrug) and playing SMB with that cousin
Sure there is. They MAY have an interest in the game, but I'll bet they WON'T be buying the cartridges. They'll go home and bug Mom and Dad to get them a Wii so they can download it themselves.
The reason most of us collect NES or other systems is nostalgia. Today young kids or their kids won't have that same feeling towards the NES.
Amount of collector's coming in vs. Amount of collector's leaving
Right now, NES is HOT because new people are coming in much faster than people are leaving. I owned exactly ZERO NES items as recently as July 2008, now I have shelves and bookcases full of crap. The demand continues to grow, and thus the prices shoot up. "Rarity" of an item only indirectly drives the price, it is the DEMAND that drives the price. Rarity increases demand, which increases price. The rarest item in the world isn't worth a nickel unless the demand is there as well.
Having said this, do you guys honestly believe the 20 years from now there will be new collectors coming in faster than people leave? If the answer is yes, then prices go up. If the answer is no, then prices go down. It really is that simple.
Let's look at an example, even if the numbers aren't accurate.
Let's say 1% of collectors stop collecting every year.... could be laid off and need money, could lose interest, could start collecting something else, etc.
Now if you have 1,000 NES collectors today, that means 10 quit every year and sell off. But right now we also have much more than 10 people entering collecting, so the prices are going up aburdly.
Let's fast forward to 20 years from now, maybe we'll have 100,000 NES collectors by then. If 1% quit, that's 1,000 NES collectors that leave the game. That means you'd have to have at least 1,000 NEW collectors just to keep the prices stable, and you seriously can't expect the game to be "HOTTER" in 20 years than it is now?
One last thing, I know the response will be "Well there's only 26 Gold NWCs in existence, so they don't apply to this type of thinking". I'll give you that argument, NWC could be an exception to the rule (as long as the demand is there). However, I think NES collecting as a whole will lose steam in the long term.
(And in the short term it could as well, unemployment continues to skyrocket and this will 1. Potentially force people to sell , 2. Discourage new collectors and 3. Cause current collectors to spend wisely)
And now they want to relive some of that nostalgia.
This won't hold true for the next generation, even moreso the one after that, etc.
2+ generations removed from now, "your" collection will be worthless.
If you collect to relive some of the nostalgia and it brings some enjoyment, great, but if you collect solely to eventually profit from it (banking a NWC gold will hit 50k+ -- chuckle), you're not be very smart with your money.
NES is hot right now because the people that enjoyed it as kids now have money. Most are in their mid-20's to early 30's. Have somewhat stable income.
There almost is no such thing as stable income in an economy like this...
However, I don't think they will for this simple reason... there is always going to be those guys out there willing to pay a ridiculous price for a very rare game and the people that have that game won't sell unless they are offered an amount they can't refuse. You guys don't think that the kids today aren't going to go back further once they collect every Wii game made? They are going to want to get the actual game cartridge of the NES/SNES/N64 game they grew up playing on the virtual console. No doubt there will be less people collecting in 20+ years but during that span NES games are going to become more rare. The few that have the determination will pay any price to attempt to complete a set.
Well collecting every Wii game is going to be insane considering the library is over 1,000 games already and the console hasn't even "peaked" yet in terms of popularity. The Wii library will be at least twice as large as NES, if not much more.
Also, if people want to go back and get the NES/SNES/N64 game, we are talking about "populars" such as Metroid, Mario, Starfox, Mario Kart, Donkey Kong, Zelda, etc. Popular games will always hold value no matter what... but where does the 50k NWC factor into that?
Also, 50k today isn't 50k 20 years from now. I'm curious to see how the economy will turn out, but it is quite feasible that severe inflation could occur after this. 50k in 20 years could be worth 40k today, or 30k today, etc. It's impossible to tell and speculating is entertaining but all just a matter of opinion...
its no different than nick jr having a cousin with a virtual console today (shrug) and playing SMB with that cousin
Sure there is. They MAY have an interest in the game, but I'll bet they WON'T be buying the cartridges.
we can discuss that point all day, but like jonebone said that kind of thinking doesn't applying when you're talking about some of the best items in the hobby. your loose gray brick or average CIB isn't going to be worth anything or go up any IMO but the best stuff will keep on climbin'.
you seem to think 50k is impossible but that's only implying a tripling in value in 11 years. 30k in six years (the other half the prediction and maybe the half we should focus on since you seem to be throwing up blinders at the idea of 50k) is saying the nwc gold will go up 3k a year. Again, not exactly an earth shattering prognostication. A year is a long time.
the gold nwc has doubled in the EIGHTEEN MONTHS and yet a prediction of it doubling again in six years is somehow crazy? the 30k/50k is actually predicting a SLOWDOWN in the rate of appreciation
i personally believe collecting NES games will go downhill. There are very few NES collectors out there right now. Maybe what, a few hundred serious ones? Maybe a thousand? We grow up. We move on. Sure, it will still mean something to us, but no one younger than our generation really cares. I tell a kid that I collect old-school Nintendo games - they ask about N64 games :-\. Many of them don't even know what NES was/is. There might be a few die hard collectors born, but we are probably the majority right now.
If you look at it like a normal bell curve, we are probably getting close to reaching the peak right now, which will shortly fall into a gradual decline. There will be some stragglers, but it will become even more of a niche thing than it is now. That doesn't mean the rare games will get cheap. It just means less people will be willing to pay 10k+ for a game.
Just my thoughts. Could be wrong. I know everyone believes what they want to believe.