For the first time, Chrono Trigger is heading to Europe, on DS. Chrono was on FIRST PAGE in our biggest newspaper, "Verdens Gang". Do people actually think retro stuff, nes in perticular, wont last for generations and generations? There's somthing about the looks of 8 and 16 bit that always will have a appeal. People also love history. Nes was the beginning to what we have today. Americans have nothing to be afraid of. Scandinavians, a little maybe. I don't see a scandinavian game released in several other countries reach american sums of money, or maybe? I DON'T think we will LOOSE money however.
I think in perticular Dream TR is going to be a very rich man He already is, but I don't see his merch get's worth any less. Im a bit uncertain when it comes to samples and prototypes though. Magazine samples of a finished game will never reach insane amounts of money, but I think prototypes with big changes that has HISTORY OF SIGNIFICANCE will be worth insane amounts of money. I can se my Dr.Mario proto be worth a lot, since it has another name that was not known to public until recently, it's working title (Virus), and major graphic and animation differences.
NES is going uphill, so do SNES. You can't go wrong buying stuff branded Nintendo (for most parts).
I don't doubt that there will ALWAYS be SOMEBODY that collects this stuff...but I've got to agree with Jonas, that there will be much FEWER people a decade or two into the future interested in this particular system than there are today.
Even the current short term demand will collapse within a year, or so. Anyone that thinks otherwise has an inadequate understanding of the world economy. As far as stable employment...according to most stats, the age groups most nostalgic about cartridge based systems are the most likely to become unemployed.
I don't doubt that items could hit 50k...but I think that's far more likely to happen due to monetary inflation rather than an actual increase in value of the collectible.
its no different than nick jr having a cousin with a virtual console today (shrug) and playing SMB with that cousin
Sure there is. They MAY have an interest in the game, but I'll bet they WON'T be buying the cartridges.
we can discuss that point all day, but like jonebone said that kind of thinking doesn't applying when you're talking about some of the best items in the hobby. your loose gray brick or average CIB isn't going to be worth anything or go up any IMO but the best stuff will keep on climbin'.
you seem to think 50k is impossible but that's only implying a tripling in value in 11 years. 30k in six years (the other half the prediction and maybe the half we should focus on since you seem to be throwing up blinders at the idea of 50k) is saying the nwc gold will go up 3k a year. Again, not exactly an earth shattering prognostication. A year is a long time.
the gold nwc has doubled in the EIGHTEEN MONTHS and yet a prediction of it doubling again in six years is somehow crazy? the 30k/50k is actually predicting a SLOWDOWN in the rate of appreciation
Doubled in 18 months? GREAT!! This is while the market is probably at its peak.
The rate of appreciation won't always be this high and I am willing to bet it won't ever hit 50k.
its no different than nick jr having a cousin with a virtual console today (shrug) and playing SMB with that cousin
Sure there is. They MAY have an interest in the game, but I'll bet they WON'T be buying the cartridges.
we can discuss that point all day, but like jonebone said that kind of thinking doesn't applying when you're talking about some of the best items in the hobby. your loose gray brick or average CIB isn't going to be worth anything or go up any IMO but the best stuff will keep on climbin'.
you seem to think 50k is impossible but that's only implying a tripling in value in 11 years. 30k in six years (the other half the prediction and maybe the half we should focus on since you seem to be throwing up blinders at the idea of 50k) is saying the nwc gold will go up 3k a year. Again, not exactly an earth shattering prognostication. A year is a long time.
the gold nwc has doubled in the EIGHTEEN MONTHS and yet a prediction of it doubling again in six years is somehow crazy? the 30k/50k is actually predicting a SLOWDOWN in the rate of appreciation
Doubled in 18 months? GREAT!! This is while the market is probably at its peak.
The rate of appreciation won't always be this high and I am willing to bet it won't ever hit 50k.
2020 is too far out, but how about we bet $50 on its 2015 price. I say at least one 30k cash sale (time payment sales count) by that time. you take the opposite position. loser pays up on Dec 31 2015.
I foresee game collecting going the same route as music collecting in the very long run. With each passing generation, you will have less and less familiar with the old formats, and most will ignore it all together, which will lessen the potential collector pool year after year. How many younger kids (and adults) even know that records exist, let alone care? Of course, you'll always have the very small minority who dig deep and discover the old media, but why buy a bulky record (and now CD) when you can download 10,000 song to a small portable player?
The same shift is happening to gaming. Virtual console games, emulators/roms, purchasing digital downloads - this is already upon us, and not only with gaming, but with all media/entertainment. Twenty years from now, you may not even be able to physically buy new software anymore... just pay and it's on your PC/gaming console instantly.
Ckendal's hit the nail right on the head. People may always want to PLAY old games (and music), but that does not mean they will want to OWN the old games in their original format. How many people who download old songs also feel the need to go out and buy the original record albums? Those who were around back when the song first aired or owned the album are the prime candidates, not 20 year old kids who download "Hey Jude" to their Ipods.
What one does have to keep in mind though is the small minority who does decided to collect 20,30,50 years down the line are still going to be paying top dollar...Watch like 200 years from now assuming earth is still around people will be flipping through there TV that is mounted in there retinas and they will hit the "antique roadshow". "What you have here is one of the first games ever produced by a company known as Nintendo it was called Donkey Kong. I'm really glad you brought this in. Do you have any idea how much its worth?"
its no different than nick jr having a cousin with a virtual console today (shrug) and playing SMB with that cousin
Sure there is. They MAY have an interest in the game, but I'll bet they WON'T be buying the cartridges.
we can discuss that point all day, but like jonebone said that kind of thinking doesn't applying when you're talking about some of the best items in the hobby. your loose gray brick or average CIB isn't going to be worth anything or go up any IMO but the best stuff will keep on climbin'.
you seem to think 50k is impossible but that's only implying a tripling in value in 11 years. 30k in six years (the other half the prediction and maybe the half we should focus on since you seem to be throwing up blinders at the idea of 50k) is saying the nwc gold will go up 3k a year. Again, not exactly an earth shattering prognostication. A year is a long time.
the gold nwc has doubled in the EIGHTEEN MONTHS and yet a prediction of it doubling again in six years is somehow crazy? the 30k/50k is actually predicting a SLOWDOWN in the rate of appreciation
Doubled in 18 months? GREAT!! This is while the market is probably at its peak.
The rate of appreciation won't always be this high and I am willing to bet it won't ever hit 50k.
2020 is too far out, but how about we bet $50 on its 2015 price. I say at least one 30k cash sale (time payment sales count) by that time. you take the opposite position. loser pays up on Dec 31 2015.
If you are saying 30k in 2009 dollars then I'll take that bet. If you're saying 30k in 2015 dollars...again, be careful what you wish for.
ckendall: you just aren't seeing the whole picture. You keep comparing video games to baseball cards and comic books and such. Video games are not even CLOSELY related to the two, and if you check/follow Atari 2600, they are a generation AHEAD of us, and the boxed games hit infinitely more money when they come up.
Sure, there are minute amounts of collectors, but as you say with baseball cards and comic books "dying", the higher end items hit hundreds of thousands of dollars so your argument is completely blown apart in any aspect right now.
No one is "banking" on selling their collection as a whole, everyone usually pieces them out, but Atari boxed/CIB games are where the money is. I think that those prices will eventually drop because well, Atari does not really exist anymore, so if ANYTHING, Atari boxed games 30 years from now might be a bit cheaper because no one cares/knows anything about them, but Nintendo is too smart of a company to fall this way, and their popularity with Mario is going to go on for decades at least. They still EXIST, that being the main thing.
I just think you aren't seeing the whole picture.
joneboro: There aren't even close to 1,000 Wii games right now unless you are counting Virtual Console, which does not count. If you were saying DS, then you might be close, but Wii? Not a chance.
Arguments about people spending XXXX dollars on such and such game when they could "spend it on other things" like home, car, bills, etc needs to stay out of this conversation. Everyone is posting on a site that has the most hype for pricing in Nintendo related items I have ever seen. If 1-2 people want something on here and post about, many others flock to it like sheep (and I don't mean anything negative by that remark), so I'm not too sure what the cause is of anyone denying things like the NWC being this high.
I was ridiculed because people thought I was "asking too much" for the gray NWC last year at less than $2500 and now look at the price? Sometimes I wonder about people's way of thinking.
wrldstrman: No one would put their gold NWC in their right mind on eBay. I've posted many times that the cartridge sells better PRIVATELY. Same goes with Stadium Events. Supply and demand and not putting the item on eBay on items where less than 5-10 are around will keep the price steady. No one WANTS to sell their gold NWC right now. The people I know with it? No one is even considering. I tried to sell one for less than $10,000 a year ago, no buyers. Then THREE of them sell for $12K-15K in a year. You gotta love buyers that miss out on things like this when I am trying to sell something. Now the gold NWC I can get won't be sold for anything LESS than $25K because of that. Most of the big money for sales on higher end items just ends up being better sold privately. You can hype it on eBay, but private deals are the best for that sort of thing.
Funny how long these threads get. I know it doesnt matter what I think ,things wont change unless the economy collapases, but from a viewpoint of a normal everyday person its a shame everything has to come down to greed more or less. Just like baseball cards. when I was a kid a pack of baseball cards were 5 cents for a pack of 10 cards, gum and usally a sticker. Which was something fun for kids to do. You could buy a pack, trade with your buddies, you just threw them in a shoe box and had fun. But then all the sudden adults get involved. So the hobby turns from kids having fun to a bunch of grown men buying up cards at prices no kid could ever hope to pay. then the card companies see that these grown men are willing to pay a ton for cards so the price goes from 5 cents to 5.00 dollars a pack. which eleminates the average kid from stopping at the local store to buy a pack of cards. But people will look at it as oh well who cares about the kids. Even if the card companies decided to come out with cheap cards again just for kids the adults would still grab them up and ruin it for the kids again.
Granted video games are a little different at this point in time most kids under 18 have no intrest in the older video games. But im all about the free market. Meaning something is only worth what someone is willing to pay. The myriad Nick bought is a good example ,he was willing to pay 5 thousand dollars for it. So to Nick its worth 5 grand, but that doesnt mean the myriad is worth 5 grand, but now anyone with a sealed copy will automatically say well come the end of the world I ll never sell my copy for less than 5 thousand dollars. But that auction actually was pleasant to see because it started at 99 cents and ran the course of the auction. If all auctions ran there courses I wouldnt have any problem with what they sell for. the thing that gets in my crawl about video games is all the set price auctions that i feel ruin the fun of collecting. Yes there is not a darn thing I can do about it but I also dont have to agree with it.
Im not saying there is anything wrong with someone putting a one of a kind or ultra rare piece on ebay for a price to see if there is any intrest. I just hate seeing it trickle down to the semi rare or uncommon stuff that ruins it for the casual collector. Heck I watch the Barret car auction and ive seen many cars sell for way under what they wanted for it but they put it up for auction and let it fly. Free market. I think pretty much all of the long time members are well aware of my stance on this conversation. Items are only worth what someone is willing to pay for them. actually I would like to see all the serious guys hang... onto there stuff as that is the main goal of collecting I really dont have a beef with any of the serious collectors. I just get upset with people like nofriendo who drive up the price on things. come on here and brag like having a certian item makes you better than anyone esle. then turning around and put the item on ebay for more than they paid. So the guys that are genuinly into collecting end up not getting items for their collections because some bragger just had to have the item so they can run on here and say look what i got. but hey what do I know
I've often thought about this too and fully agree. Look at the guys collecting original NES and SNES stuff. It's the ones who were bottle fed on Atarti and NES. Today and future gamers who have entered the video game world in the time of GameCube and Playstation 2 could give a rat's ass about collecting every NES game made. Much like I could give a rat's ass about Odyssey, Commodore, etc.
As the years pass, it should come as no suprise that there will be fewer of us hardcore old-school NES collectors...not more.
Investing in video games for a long-term is pretty 'stoopid'...there is a 401(k) for that. Twenty years form now your 'pool' of investors is going to be much smaller than today.
Well, I never had an NES or SNES growing up, and now NES is my favorite system . Also there are a few younger members here who do appreciate the NES. I fully agree tho that the number of collectors in my generation and younger is very few, and I'm sure many wont be willing to pay the kind of prices for this stuff that people pay now. Basically, if you collect, collect because you enjoy the games and collecting them, and not because you want to profit from them in the future.
Now, for higher end I tems, I do think that they will continue to rise over time, however there is as point where they will eventually loose interest. Once the generation that played NES as kids grows old, it is very likely that prices will go down for high end suff. I highly doubt that the average 12 year old now even knows what an NES is, and they likely wont care enough to spend big money on them in the future.
Although, we are all just guessing here, nobody knows where the market will take the hobby in the furture.
muthafodder: Tell that 401K comment to the people who were about to retire this year. My grandfather tried to get me to sell all my games to invest in mortgage and 401K. Would have been real fun losing all my stuff to the economy. Everything is risky any way you look at it, but the value in my games the past 10 years has been safe for me, and I enjoy them. It's one of the few aspects of the economy that has NOT changed as much, used resale value on most of the stuff..
wrldstrman: NoFriendo would yell if people sold things high, then he sold things high himself sometimes, but everyone wants money. People always try to sell their high end stuff whether it be protos, rare carts, etc, so you can tell who the collectors really are based on what they sell and how soon they sell it after they acquire it.
I want to hear more input on the degradation of the NES cartridges. Baseball cards aren't going to lose data in the long run...you can't really compare the two. NES carts are never going to be on the antique roadshow...but next they have one it would be neat to bring some to see the puzzled looks on their faces and maybe get on TV. "....but it's Stadium Events."
Think of the stock market and your 401(k) as one big sponge...now think of balling that sponge up into a small ball in the palm of your hands (stock crash)...the complete sponge is still there nontheless. Only the folks who sold pieces of their sponge at reduced prices after balling it up and out of fear due to the stock crash will be hurting. The others will still have their complete sponge when water saturates it once again.
Anyone with great financial insight didn't sale anything...even if they were retiring this year.
EDIT - Now is the time to buy into the stock market, 401(k), or other form of deferred compensation. I'd much rather buy a balled up sponge as it can only be a much bigger sponge later.
I want to hear more input on the degradation of the NES cartridges. Baseball cards aren't going to lose data in the long run...you can't really compare the two. NES carts are never going to be on the antique roadshow...but next they have one it would be neat to bring some to see the puzzled looks on their faces and maybe get on TV. "....but it's Stadium Events."
Licensed production carts won't lose data either. The mask ROMs in Stadium Events will still work long after the label has decomposed. Like baseball cards a big factor will be fading and damage to the labels. For the people who love to display their collections the fading from sunlight will become more of a problem. So far it looks like the glue and inks hold up very well. Cabinets with UV blocking glass will be a good idea.
Anything with EPROMs will eventually be a problem, which does include the NWC. It may not matter by then, just as the natural degradation of the gray NWC labels does not affect prices too much. Once most carts are dead (like most grays now have brown/yellow label edges) it will just be accepted. Then you get into the debates over cart restoration by reburning the EPROMs. All classic cars have rust, just depends if you accept it or restore.
Dream - MF has the right idea about investing. You're also making the faulty assumption that a 401k has to be fully invested in equities. There are ways to put it into stable dividend producing investments or even CD's if your risk tolerance is that low. Also, your investment horizon is WAY out there, so the ability to reap gains by buying during this time period will benefit our generation considerably. Anybody that was all in equities and was about to retire had a really stupid asset allocation anyway. You shouldn't think that it will happen to you if your portfolio is balanced correctly.
Think of the stock market and your 401(k) as one big sponge...now think of balling that sponge up into a small ball in the palm of your hands (stock crash)...the complete sponge is still there nontheless. Only the folks who sold pieces of their sponge at reduced prices after balling it up and out of fear due to the stock crash will be hurting. The others will still have their complete sponge when water saturates it once again.
Anyone with great financial insight didn't sale anything...even if they were retiring this year.
Well some stocks will NEVER recover. Some companies went under.
Some 90's cards will be worth more as recycled paper.
If you buy the best you usually can't go wrong. Today kids don't play with baseball cards like they did in the 60's and 70's and even in the 80's. Starting in 1981 other companies besides Topps were allowed to sell cards provided they not include chewing gum in the packages. A huge build up occured and cards were selling for multiples of guide and increased in value almost every month. When it burst only the older cards retained any real % of the their value.
Kids weren't buying them and they were just overproduced. However the old school collectors knew better than to stock pile cases of 90's Donruss cards and they came out of it more or less intact. Today the tobacco card collectors see appreciation on the cards they kept.
As long as kids are playing Nintendo games they will look back to older generations of Nintendo and there will be new collectors. You need new blood to keep any hobby alive. We are getting some now from card and comic collectors. Once kids stop playing videogames you can start counting down to when the market will implode.
arch angel/muthafodder: Even if the stocks "recover" it's going to take quite a bit of time, but companies at an alarming rate go under. Sure, it's a "great" time to buy if you are patient enough to wait 3-4 years for the market to sort of get back resembling what it used to, which puts us off 6-8 years with inflation as it is. Everyone is an expert, but the only people I know that did well on retirement either didn't spend much and put it all into their 401K, but retirees NOW still lost money. If you ARE retiring and are at age 68 or so and just lost money from 401ks which DID take significant hits, you can't expect them to "wait around" for market conditions to come back up.
You know how many investment bankers are getting sued, fleeing the country, or committing suicide because of this depression we're in?
Buyatari is right though, video games as long as people play them, are doing fine, and you're talking about the number 1 entertainment value at this point? Are people going to stop collecting old movie memorabilia ever? Of course not.
I don't know, a lot of people assume things about my financial situation, but I have a house, I own a business, and I've got a pretty good collection of games, and I have NEVER made over $50,000 in a year, so I must be doing something right if all the money I put into the stuff is NOT taking a hit. If/when I decide to sell it all (and it will take about 2 years) I am sure I will be making a hell of a lot more than I put into the stuff.
DreanTR & wrldstrman - You both have excellent points.
Arch 8ngle- I don't mean to be rude but it seems that almost every post I ever see you make is about the impending doom of the economy. I dont understand why you are so pessimistic about the economic situation. This happens almost every 10 years. People get hurt from it but on the whole the world pulls through. There may be some hard times ahead but nothing we as humans cant handle. Eventually everything will find an equilibrium.
People will always collect video games the question is how many people will? For the same reason that people will collect small model cars, glass unicorns, clowns, Disney memorabilia, vases, paintings, Movie posters, comic books, collectible cards, Movies...The list can go on. People always will collect video games. Humans are prone to collecting objects of interest no different then animals (such as birds and shiny objects) For some it helps us fill a void of nostalgia. For others they just want to learn about the history of a topic they currently find interesting. For my self I am an atheist so I figure I might as well use my money when I can enjoy it. That being said why does it matter whether or not your game is worth $5 or $500. All that matters is if you are happy with it. If you are looking to make a living off of video games your no different then a ticket scalper in my opinion (Unless you are making money by producing your own games).
It was said perfectly once already. Something is worth only as much as someone will pay for it. This is the basic law of supply and demand. Even if demand goes down for vintage video games there is only two options for the supply. It can stay the same (In which case the value of games will go down) Or the more likely outcome is that the supply of video games will fall as well. Since the games are no longer being produced it is almost impossible to increase the supply on a economical scale. So unless everyone dies or decides to sell their games all at once the market for old games will remain relatively unchanged.
Another thing to keep in mind is fashion, trends and fads. All of these things go full circle and the same can be said for video games. When you look at the very first video games what did they use for controllers? A joystick. Now look at the most successful system on the market. The Nintendo Wii's "Wiimote" is essentially a glorified joystick that is no longer wired. All that has changed is the way we waggle the stick.
With the new information regarding to the profit accumulated by Megaman 9 it only makes sense that companies will start side projects with a more retro feel. As they are easy to make, cost less to produce and take less time to make. Yet they still can yield an amazing profit if done properly. That being said I severely doubt that video games will stop being a hobby or collection. At the very least not Nintendo games.
LostEyeball - Suggesting that high inflation is probable after pumping trillions of dollars into the system is REALISTIC, not PESSIMISTIC. I fully believe that things will recover, the question is how many bumps in the road you can stomach. If you want to call out a pessimist, go bark up Jonas' or Doug's trees.
Also, drops in the market of this magnitude, coupled with the current world situation DOES NOT happen every 10 years. More like every 80.
Dream - a 401k is a type of account, it's designation has absolutely nothing to do with the types of underlying assets. There are plenty of people that had 401k's where the money either sat in cash (liquid funds) or CD's. There are investments for all levels of risk tolerance...even now.
Arch 8ngle- I don't mean to be rude but it seems that almost every post I ever see you make is about the impending doom of the economy. I dont understand why you are so pessimistic about the economic situation. This happens almost every 10 years. People get hurt from it but on the whole the world pulls through. There may be some hard times ahead but nothing we as humans cant handle. Eventually everything will find an equilibrium.
Wow. I would love to be so naive and just go day by day thinking everything will be okay and we'll just rebound. And a Candian giving advice on the American economy???
Apparently the US Auto Makers routinely go bankrupt every 10 years and banks fall every 10 years or so as well. Oh yeah, and unemployment (7.2% as of December, it'll be over 8 by the end of Jan) hasn't seen double digits since the Great Depression era. Let's not forget the huge wave of foreclosure that routinely happens every 10 years too. It's okay though, just wait until summer when unemployment is over 10%, maybe you won't be so optimistic then.
Believe whatever you want man, I'm not going to try and convince you otherwise. But don't make ignorant statements like "This happens every 10 years". Go do your own research on what's happening if you honestly believe we'll just wake up one day and snap out of this.
arch angel: I know what a 401K is, and even you put it in safety stuff what kind of percentage are you getting? It's LOWER THAN THE INFLATION RATE NOWADAYS. Most people have some type of semi aggressive portfolio and they lost with stocks. Money Market? I don't even want to go there with that. A lot of people lost a lot of money, simple as that.
Lost Eyeball, I'm not sure you know this, but businesses are declaring bankruptcy and closing left and right here. Small and large, this is NOT something that happens "every 10 years", this basically is a depression. Unemployment is silly, big businesses are going out, banks are under, houses are under, you think that's going to rebound to the levels they were 1.5 years ago anytime soon? It's going to take at least 4 years for the economy to be somewhat stable, this is going to take a long time for everyone to get out of. If you lived here, you'd really see how bad it is. People aren't going out and buying things, they buy them online save money. Brick and mortar is in trouble everywhere. Job situation is so bleak people can't get jobs at Wal-Mart out here....30%-40% drop on housing out in a lot of places? It's bad.
The 401k is should not be looked at as short-term money, it is a long term investment. One interesting fact to note is that in any given 10 year span, the stock market has always gone up. Yes, even including the GD, or including any 10 consecutive years you would like since it's inception.
The only retirees who lost money were those who wanted to gamble. It's no secret that you should invest in high risk high yield stocks when you are 20+ years from retirement, and should switch to low risk low return bonds and dividends when you are nearing retirement. Anyone who lost lots of money only lost money because they didn't manage their funds appropriately....
Arch 8ngle- I don't mean to be rude but it seems that almost every post I ever see you make is about the impending doom of the economy. I dont understand why you are so pessimistic about the economic situation. This happens almost every 10 years. People get hurt from it but on the whole the world pulls through. There may be some hard times ahead but nothing we as humans cant handle. Eventually everything will find an equilibrium.
Wow. I would love to be so naive and just go day by day thinking everything will be okay and we'll just rebound. And a Candian giving advice on the American economy???
Why not?????????? (just had to make sure I had a shit load of question marks like you)
I cannot speak for Losteyeball, but we are all interconnected and we follow the US closer than most Americans. Our banking/financial sector is not in shambles like yours either. Somaybe he is seeing a more positive outlook on this side of the border.
Its not 10 years, its not 80 years, it 40 years.
I just hope everyone on here is smart enough to capitalize on the US situation.
Hmmm well I don't know much about you guys but here in Canada at least Vancouver there is very little problems. One of our newspapers just did a poll and something like only 18% of people in B.C.? (Maybe Canada but doubt it.) Feel threatened by the economy. Maybe its because we have a strong banking system I dont know. What I do know is my mother manages RBC (Royal Bank of Canada) #1 bank in Canada and Most recognized brand name in Canada. So if I was to choose anyone to trust it would be her. (Again I may be wrong and she may be wrong but there is no need to make unnecessary comments.)
I currently work in Sales and sure I am making a bit less this year then I did last year. But I think the last company to go out of business around here was linens and things which is an American company isn't it? (Correct me if im wrong other Vancoverites.) I don't mean to insult people and there is really no need to put me down as that is offensive. As for the whole 10 years thing... there is always some kind of economical situation for every decade and people pull through thats all I was trying to say. If you guys are so pessimistic about the economy why are you spending money on luxuries like video games? Wouldn't it make more sense to invest it in gold and what not before hyperinflation sets in?
If Americans are truly as screwed as you play it to be then i'm truly sorry and you have my sympathy. But if thats the case my advice would be to not buy games in general until you are able to get through the storm.
On one side note...to everyone who truly feels that there life is terrible because of the economy it could be worse...you could be in Zimbabwe with a >%1,000,000 inflation.
If you guys are so pessimistic about the economy why are you spending money on luxuries like video games? Wouldn't it make more sense to invest it in gold and what not before hyperinflation sets in?
If Americans are truly as screwed as you play it to be then i'm truly sorry and you have my sympathy. But if thats the case my advice would be to not buy games in general until you are able to get through the storm.
On one side note...to everyone who truly feels that there life is terrible because of the economy it could be worse...you could be in Zimbabwe with a >%1,000,000 inflation.
Oh I got my finances in check, I'm saving about $2,500 a month (I live at home yay!) and only spend a little bit on video games. Not to mention I resell too, so video game collecting really doesn't cost me much money at all.
And I don't think buying gold is a good investment. Sure people are buying it now, but who the hell is going to buy it when shit hits the fan? No one, everyone will be looking to sell then, i.e. the gold market will crash too. If anything, you should stock up on food, water and ammo because that's stuff that you could actually use.
However, I do agree with arch that before America falls, a lot of other counties will fall first. Almost unbelievably, our dollar keeps gaining against many European currencies like the British pound. All that means is that they are in a much worse position than we are...
Comments
I think in perticular Dream TR is going to be a very rich man
NES is going uphill, so do SNES. You can't go wrong buying stuff branded Nintendo (for most parts).
Even the current short term demand will collapse within a year, or so. Anyone that thinks otherwise has an inadequate understanding of the world economy. As far as stable employment...according to most stats, the age groups most nostalgic about cartridge based systems are the most likely to become unemployed.
I don't doubt that items could hit 50k...but I think that's far more likely to happen due to monetary inflation rather than an actual increase in value of the collectible.
Be careful what you wish for.
its no different than nick jr having a cousin with a virtual console today (shrug) and playing SMB with that cousin
Sure there is. They MAY have an interest in the game, but I'll bet they WON'T be buying the cartridges.
we can discuss that point all day, but like jonebone said that kind of thinking doesn't applying when you're talking about some of the best items in the hobby. your loose gray brick or average CIB isn't going to be worth anything or go up any IMO but the best stuff will keep on climbin'.
you seem to think 50k is impossible but that's only implying a tripling in value in 11 years. 30k in six years (the other half the prediction and maybe the half we should focus on since you seem to be throwing up blinders at the idea of 50k) is saying the nwc gold will go up 3k a year. Again, not exactly an earth shattering prognostication. A year is a long time.
the gold nwc has doubled in the EIGHTEEN MONTHS and yet a prediction of it doubling again in six years is somehow crazy? the 30k/50k is actually predicting a SLOWDOWN in the rate of appreciation
Doubled in 18 months? GREAT!! This is while the market is probably at its peak.
The rate of appreciation won't always be this high and I am willing to bet it won't ever hit 50k.
its no different than nick jr having a cousin with a virtual console today (shrug) and playing SMB with that cousin
Sure there is. They MAY have an interest in the game, but I'll bet they WON'T be buying the cartridges.
we can discuss that point all day, but like jonebone said that kind of thinking doesn't applying when you're talking about some of the best items in the hobby. your loose gray brick or average CIB isn't going to be worth anything or go up any IMO but the best stuff will keep on climbin'.
you seem to think 50k is impossible but that's only implying a tripling in value in 11 years. 30k in six years (the other half the prediction and maybe the half we should focus on since you seem to be throwing up blinders at the idea of 50k) is saying the nwc gold will go up 3k a year. Again, not exactly an earth shattering prognostication. A year is a long time.
the gold nwc has doubled in the EIGHTEEN MONTHS and yet a prediction of it doubling again in six years is somehow crazy? the 30k/50k is actually predicting a SLOWDOWN in the rate of appreciation
Doubled in 18 months? GREAT!! This is while the market is probably at its peak.
The rate of appreciation won't always be this high and I am willing to bet it won't ever hit 50k.
2020 is too far out, but how about we bet $50 on its 2015 price. I say at least one 30k cash sale (time payment sales count) by that time. you take the opposite position. loser pays up on Dec 31 2015.
The same shift is happening to gaming. Virtual console games, emulators/roms, purchasing digital downloads - this is already upon us, and not only with gaming, but with all media/entertainment. Twenty years from now, you may not even be able to physically buy new software anymore... just pay and it's on your PC/gaming console instantly.
Ckendal's hit the nail right on the head. People may always want to PLAY old games (and music), but that does not mean they will want to OWN the old games in their original format. How many people who download old songs also feel the need to go out and buy the original record albums? Those who were around back when the song first aired or owned the album are the prime candidates, not 20 year old kids who download "Hey Jude" to their Ipods.
its no different than nick jr having a cousin with a virtual console today (shrug) and playing SMB with that cousin
Sure there is. They MAY have an interest in the game, but I'll bet they WON'T be buying the cartridges.
we can discuss that point all day, but like jonebone said that kind of thinking doesn't applying when you're talking about some of the best items in the hobby. your loose gray brick or average CIB isn't going to be worth anything or go up any IMO but the best stuff will keep on climbin'.
you seem to think 50k is impossible but that's only implying a tripling in value in 11 years. 30k in six years (the other half the prediction and maybe the half we should focus on since you seem to be throwing up blinders at the idea of 50k) is saying the nwc gold will go up 3k a year. Again, not exactly an earth shattering prognostication. A year is a long time.
the gold nwc has doubled in the EIGHTEEN MONTHS and yet a prediction of it doubling again in six years is somehow crazy? the 30k/50k is actually predicting a SLOWDOWN in the rate of appreciation
Doubled in 18 months? GREAT!! This is while the market is probably at its peak.
The rate of appreciation won't always be this high and I am willing to bet it won't ever hit 50k.
2020 is too far out, but how about we bet $50 on its 2015 price. I say at least one 30k cash sale (time payment sales count) by that time. you take the opposite position. loser pays up on Dec 31 2015.
If you are saying 30k in 2009 dollars then I'll take that bet. If you're saying 30k in 2015 dollars...again, be careful what you wish for.
Sure, there are minute amounts of collectors, but as you say with baseball cards and comic books "dying", the higher end items hit hundreds of thousands of dollars so your argument is completely blown apart in any aspect right now.
No one is "banking" on selling their collection as a whole, everyone usually pieces them out, but Atari boxed/CIB games are where the money is. I think that those prices will eventually drop because well, Atari does not really exist anymore, so if ANYTHING, Atari boxed games 30 years from now might be a bit cheaper because no one cares/knows anything about them, but Nintendo is too smart of a company to fall this way, and their popularity with Mario is going to go on for decades at least. They still EXIST, that being the main thing.
I just think you aren't seeing the whole picture.
joneboro: There aren't even close to 1,000 Wii games right now unless you are counting Virtual Console, which does not count. If you were saying DS, then you might be close, but Wii? Not a chance.
Arguments about people spending XXXX dollars on such and such game when they could "spend it on other things" like home, car, bills, etc needs to stay out of this conversation. Everyone is posting on a site that has the most hype for pricing in Nintendo related items I have ever seen. If 1-2 people want something on here and post about, many others flock to it like sheep (and I don't mean anything negative by that remark), so I'm not too sure what the cause is of anyone denying things like the NWC being this high.
I was ridiculed because people thought I was "asking too much" for the gray NWC last year at less than $2500 and now look at the price? Sometimes I wonder about people's way of thinking.
wrldstrman: No one would put their gold NWC in their right mind on eBay. I've posted many times that the cartridge sells better PRIVATELY. Same goes with Stadium Events. Supply and demand and not putting the item on eBay on items where less than 5-10 are around will keep the price steady. No one WANTS to sell their gold NWC right now. The people I know with it? No one is even considering. I tried to sell one for less than $10,000 a year ago, no buyers. Then THREE of them sell for $12K-15K in a year. You gotta love buyers that miss out on things like this when I am trying to sell something. Now the gold NWC I can get won't be sold for anything LESS than $25K because of that. Most of the big money for sales on higher end items just ends up being better sold privately. You can hype it on eBay, but private deals are the best for that sort of thing.
Funny how long these threads get. I know it doesnt matter what I think ,things wont change unless the economy collapases, but from a viewpoint of a normal everyday person its a shame everything has to come down to greed more or less. Just like baseball cards. when I was a kid a pack of baseball cards were 5 cents for a pack of 10 cards, gum and usally a sticker. Which was something fun for kids to do. You could buy a pack, trade with your buddies, you just threw them in a shoe box and had fun. But then all the sudden adults get involved. So the hobby turns from kids having fun to a bunch of grown men buying up cards at prices no kid could ever hope to pay. then the card companies see that these grown men are willing to pay a ton for cards so the price goes from 5 cents to 5.00 dollars a pack. which eleminates the average kid from stopping at the local store to buy a pack of cards. But people will look at it as oh well who cares about the kids. Even if the card companies decided to come out with cheap cards again just for kids the adults would still grab them up and ruin it for the kids again.
Granted video games are a little different at this point in time most kids under 18 have no intrest in the older video games. But im all about the free market. Meaning something is only worth what someone is willing to pay. The myriad Nick bought is a good example ,he was willing to pay 5 thousand dollars for it. So to Nick its worth 5 grand, but that doesnt mean the myriad is worth 5 grand, but now anyone with a sealed copy will automatically say well come the end of the world I ll never sell my copy for less than 5 thousand dollars. But that auction actually was pleasant to see because it started at 99 cents and ran the course of the auction. If all auctions ran there courses I wouldnt have any problem with what they sell for. the thing that gets in my crawl about video games is all the set price auctions that i feel ruin the fun of collecting. Yes there is not a darn thing I can do about it but I also dont have to agree with it.
Im not saying there is anything wrong with someone putting a one of a kind or ultra rare piece on ebay for a price to see if there is any intrest. I just hate seeing it trickle down to the semi rare or uncommon stuff that ruins it for the casual collector. Heck I watch the Barret car auction and ive seen many cars sell for way under what they wanted for it but they put it up for auction and let it fly. Free market. I think pretty much all of the long time members are well aware of my stance on this conversation. Items are only worth what someone is willing to pay for them. actually I would like to see all the serious guys hang... onto there stuff as that is the main goal of collecting I really dont have a beef with any of the serious collectors. I just get upset with people like nofriendo who drive up the price on things. come on here and brag like having a certian item makes you better than anyone esle. then turning around and put the item on ebay for more than they paid. So the guys that are genuinly into collecting end up not getting items for their collections because some bragger just had to have the item so they can run on here and say look what i got. but hey what do I know
I've often thought about this too and fully agree. Look at the guys collecting original NES and SNES stuff. It's the ones who were bottle fed on Atarti and NES. Today and future gamers who have entered the video game world in the time of GameCube and Playstation 2 could give a rat's ass about collecting every NES game made. Much like I could give a rat's ass about Odyssey, Commodore, etc.
As the years pass, it should come as no suprise that there will be fewer of us hardcore old-school NES collectors...not more.
Investing in video games for a long-term is pretty 'stoopid'...there is a 401(k) for that. Twenty years form now your 'pool' of investors is going to be much smaller than today.
Well, I never had an NES or SNES growing up, and now NES is my favorite system
Now, for higher end I tems, I do think that they will continue to rise over time, however there is as point where they will eventually loose interest. Once the generation that played NES as kids grows old, it is very likely that prices will go down for high end suff. I highly doubt that the average 12 year old now even knows what an NES is, and they likely wont care enough to spend big money on them in the future.
Although, we are all just guessing here, nobody knows where the market will take the hobby in the furture.
wrldstrman: NoFriendo would yell if people sold things high, then he sold things high himself sometimes, but everyone wants money. People always try to sell their high end stuff whether it be protos, rare carts, etc, so you can tell who the collectors really are based on what they sell and how soon they sell it after they acquire it.
Think of the stock market and your 401(k) as one big sponge...now think of balling that sponge up into a small ball in the palm of your hands (stock crash)...the complete sponge is still there nontheless. Only the folks who sold pieces of their sponge at reduced prices after balling it up and out of fear due to the stock crash will be hurting. The others will still have their complete sponge when water saturates it once again.
Anyone with great financial insight didn't sale anything...even if they were retiring this year.
EDIT - Now is the time to buy into the stock market, 401(k), or other form of deferred compensation. I'd much rather buy a balled up sponge as it can only be a much bigger sponge later.
I want to hear more input on the degradation of the NES cartridges. Baseball cards aren't going to lose data in the long run...you can't really compare the two. NES carts are never going to be on the antique roadshow...but next they have one it would be neat to bring some to see the puzzled looks on their faces and maybe get on TV.
Licensed production carts won't lose data either. The mask ROMs in Stadium Events will still work long after the label has decomposed. Like baseball cards a big factor will be fading and damage to the labels. For the people who love to display their collections the fading from sunlight will become more of a problem. So far it looks like the glue and inks hold up very well. Cabinets with UV blocking glass will be a good idea.
Dream - MF has the right idea about investing. You're also making the faulty assumption that a 401k has to be fully invested in equities. There are ways to put it into stable dividend producing investments or even CD's if your risk tolerance is that low. Also, your investment horizon is WAY out there, so the ability to reap gains by buying during this time period will benefit our generation considerably. Anybody that was all in equities and was about to retire had a really stupid asset allocation anyway. You shouldn't think that it will happen to you if your portfolio is balanced correctly.
Think of the stock market and your 401(k) as one big sponge...now think of balling that sponge up into a small ball in the palm of your hands (stock crash)...the complete sponge is still there nontheless. Only the folks who sold pieces of their sponge at reduced prices after balling it up and out of fear due to the stock crash will be hurting. The others will still have their complete sponge when water saturates it once again.
Anyone with great financial insight didn't sale anything...even if they were retiring this year.
Well some stocks will NEVER recover. Some companies went under.
Some 90's cards will be worth more as recycled paper.
If you buy the best you usually can't go wrong. Today kids don't play with baseball cards like they did in the 60's and 70's and even in the 80's. Starting in 1981 other companies besides Topps were allowed to sell cards provided they not include chewing gum in the packages. A huge build up occured and cards were selling for multiples of guide and increased in value almost every month. When it burst only the older cards retained any real % of the their value.
Kids weren't buying them and they were just overproduced. However the old school collectors knew better than to stock pile cases of 90's Donruss cards and they came out of it more or less intact. Today the tobacco card collectors see appreciation on the cards they kept.
As long as kids are playing Nintendo games they will look back to older generations of Nintendo and there will be new collectors. You need new blood to keep any hobby alive. We are getting some now from card and comic collectors. Once kids stop playing videogames you can start counting down to when the market will implode.
You know how many investment bankers are getting sued, fleeing the country, or committing suicide because of this depression we're in?
Buyatari is right though, video games as long as people play them, are doing fine, and you're talking about the number 1 entertainment value at this point? Are people going to stop collecting old movie memorabilia ever? Of course not.
I don't know, a lot of people assume things about my financial situation, but I have a house, I own a business, and I've got a pretty good collection of games, and I have NEVER made over $50,000 in a year, so I must be doing something right if all the money I put into the stuff is NOT taking a hit. If/when I decide to sell it all (and it will take about 2 years) I am sure I will be making a hell of a lot more than I put into the stuff.
DreanTR & wrldstrman - You both have excellent points.
Arch 8ngle- I don't mean to be rude but it seems that almost every post I ever see you make is about the impending doom of the economy. I dont understand why you are so pessimistic about the economic situation. This happens almost every 10 years. People get hurt from it but on the whole the world pulls through. There may be some hard times ahead but nothing we as humans cant handle. Eventually everything will find an equilibrium.
People will always collect video games the question is how many people will? For the same reason that people will collect small model cars, glass unicorns, clowns, Disney memorabilia, vases, paintings, Movie posters, comic books, collectible cards, Movies...The list can go on. People always will collect video games. Humans are prone to collecting objects of interest no different then animals (such as birds and shiny objects) For some it helps us fill a void of nostalgia. For others they just want to learn about the history of a topic they currently find interesting. For my self I am an atheist so I figure I might as well use my money when I can enjoy it. That being said why does it matter whether or not your game is worth $5 or $500. All that matters is if you are happy with it. If you are looking to make a living off of video games your no different then a ticket scalper in my opinion (Unless you are making money by producing your own games).
It was said perfectly once already. Something is worth only as much as someone will pay for it. This is the basic law of supply and demand. Even if demand goes down for vintage video games there is only two options for the supply. It can stay the same (In which case the value of games will go down) Or the more likely outcome is that the supply of video games will fall as well. Since the games are no longer being produced it is almost impossible to increase the supply on a economical scale. So unless everyone dies or decides to sell their games all at once the market for old games will remain relatively unchanged.
Another thing to keep in mind is fashion, trends and fads. All of these things go full circle and the same can be said for video games. When you look at the very first video games what did they use for controllers? A joystick. Now look at the most successful system on the market. The Nintendo Wii's "Wiimote" is essentially a glorified joystick that is no longer wired. All that has changed is the way we waggle the stick.
With the new information regarding to the profit accumulated by Megaman 9 it only makes sense that companies will start side projects with a more retro feel. As they are easy to make, cost less to produce and take less time to make. Yet they still can yield an amazing profit if done properly. That being said I severely doubt that video games will stop being a hobby or collection. At the very least not Nintendo games.
Also, drops in the market of this magnitude, coupled with the current world situation DOES NOT happen every 10 years. More like every 80.
Dream - a 401k is a type of account, it's designation has absolutely nothing to do with the types of underlying assets. There are plenty of people that had 401k's where the money either sat in cash (liquid funds) or CD's. There are investments for all levels of risk tolerance...even now.
Is this thread still about Stadium Events?
nope
Arch 8ngle- I don't mean to be rude but it seems that almost every post I ever see you make is about the impending doom of the economy. I dont understand why you are so pessimistic about the economic situation. This happens almost every 10 years. People get hurt from it but on the whole the world pulls through. There may be some hard times ahead but nothing we as humans cant handle. Eventually everything will find an equilibrium.
Wow. I would love to be so naive and just go day by day thinking everything will be okay and we'll just rebound. And a Candian giving advice on the American economy???
Apparently the US Auto Makers routinely go bankrupt every 10 years and banks fall every 10 years or so as well. Oh yeah, and unemployment (7.2% as of December, it'll be over 8 by the end of Jan) hasn't seen double digits since the Great Depression era. Let's not forget the huge wave of foreclosure that routinely happens every 10 years too. It's okay though, just wait until summer when unemployment is over 10%, maybe you won't be so optimistic then.
Believe whatever you want man, I'm not going to try and convince you otherwise. But don't make ignorant statements like "This happens every 10 years". Go do your own research on what's happening if you honestly believe we'll just wake up one day and snap out of this.
Lost Eyeball, I'm not sure you know this, but businesses are declaring bankruptcy and closing left and right here. Small and large, this is NOT something that happens "every 10 years", this basically is a depression. Unemployment is silly, big businesses are going out, banks are under, houses are under, you think that's going to rebound to the levels they were 1.5 years ago anytime soon? It's going to take at least 4 years for the economy to be somewhat stable, this is going to take a long time for everyone to get out of. If you lived here, you'd really see how bad it is. People aren't going out and buying things, they buy them online save money. Brick and mortar is in trouble everywhere. Job situation is so bleak people can't get jobs at Wal-Mart out here....30%-40% drop on housing out in a lot of places? It's bad.
The 401k is should not be looked at as short-term money, it is a long term investment. One interesting fact to note is that in any given 10 year span, the stock market has always gone up. Yes, even including the GD, or including any 10 consecutive years you would like since it's inception.
The only retirees who lost money were those who wanted to gamble. It's no secret that you should invest in high risk high yield stocks when you are 20+ years from retirement, and should switch to low risk low return bonds and dividends when you are nearing retirement. Anyone who lost lots of money only lost money because they didn't manage their funds appropriately....
Arch 8ngle- I don't mean to be rude but it seems that almost every post I ever see you make is about the impending doom of the economy. I dont understand why you are so pessimistic about the economic situation. This happens almost every 10 years. People get hurt from it but on the whole the world pulls through. There may be some hard times ahead but nothing we as humans cant handle. Eventually everything will find an equilibrium.
Wow. I would love to be so naive and just go day by day thinking everything will be okay and we'll just rebound. And a Candian giving advice on the American economy???
Why not?????????? (just had to make sure I had a shit load of question marks like you)
I cannot speak for Losteyeball, but we are all interconnected and we follow the US closer than most Americans. Our banking/financial sector is not in shambles like yours either. Somaybe he is seeing a more positive outlook on this side of the border.
Its not 10 years, its not 80 years, it 40 years.
I just hope everyone on here is smart enough to capitalize on the US situation.
I currently work in Sales and sure I am making a bit less this year then I did last year. But I think the last company to go out of business around here was linens and things which is an American company isn't it? (Correct me if im wrong other Vancoverites.) I don't mean to insult people and there is really no need to put me down as that is offensive. As for the whole 10 years thing... there is always some kind of economical situation for every decade and people pull through thats all I was trying to say. If you guys are so pessimistic about the economy why are you spending money on luxuries like video games? Wouldn't it make more sense to invest it in gold and what not before hyperinflation sets in?
If Americans are truly as screwed as you play it to be then i'm truly sorry and you have my sympathy. But if thats the case my advice would be to not buy games in general until you are able to get through the storm.
On one side note...to everyone who truly feels that there life is terrible because of the economy it could be worse...you could be in Zimbabwe with a >%1,000,000 inflation.
If you guys are so pessimistic about the economy why are you spending money on luxuries like video games? Wouldn't it make more sense to invest it in gold and what not before hyperinflation sets in?
If Americans are truly as screwed as you play it to be then i'm truly sorry and you have my sympathy. But if thats the case my advice would be to not buy games in general until you are able to get through the storm.
On one side note...to everyone who truly feels that there life is terrible because of the economy it could be worse...you could be in Zimbabwe with a >%1,000,000 inflation.
Oh I got my finances in check, I'm saving about $2,500 a month (I live at home yay!) and only spend a little bit on video games. Not to mention I resell too, so video game collecting really doesn't cost me much money at all.
And I don't think buying gold is a good investment. Sure people are buying it now, but who the hell is going to buy it when shit hits the fan? No one, everyone will be looking to sell then, i.e. the gold market will crash too. If anything, you should stock up on food, water and ammo because that's stuff that you could actually use.
However, I do agree with arch that before America falls, a lot of other counties will fall first. Almost unbelievably, our dollar keeps gaining against many European currencies like the British pound. All that means is that they are in a much worse position than we are...