Is collecting going to reach a cap at some point?
I'm not trying to make this a bubble burst thread... just curious if/when there will ever be a cap on the rarest of games. It would make sense that any game released in this day and age will never be as sought after or go as much as the rare NES carts or even some SNES. I just sold a CIB SNES game for a very high amount of money and am curious if there will be a point where people will refuse to pay a certain amount for a game regardless of rarity etc. Hell, I wasn't even that interested to sell, but it was one of those offers that was too good to refuse. Not that I'll ever regret selling, but it got me thinking, will this game be worth significantly more in 20 years or will it be roughly the same with the biggest increase already far behind us.
I know there has been talk about the latest NWC that popped up and SE seemly cooling a bit from its previous sales, so are these beginning to cap? Will the games that now go for $1000+ eventually climb above $5000? $10000? What do you think SE or NWC will be worth in 10, 30, or 50 years from now?
I know there has been talk about the latest NWC that popped up and SE seemly cooling a bit from its previous sales, so are these beginning to cap? Will the games that now go for $1000+ eventually climb above $5000? $10000? What do you think SE or NWC will be worth in 10, 30, or 50 years from now?
Comments
My question is: What future system will not be expensive to collect for? Like will we have a system that the rarest game has like 10,000 copies and is not hard to find? I guess only time will tell.
My bet would be on Xbox 360, but I'm not sure about the 10,000 figure.
I'm not trying to make this a bubble burst thread... just curious if/when there will ever be a cap on the rarest of games. It would make sense that any game released in this day and age will never be as sought after or go as much as the rare NES carts or even some SNES. I just sold a CIB SNES game for a very high amount of money and am curious if there will be a point where people will refuse to pay a certain amount for a game regardless of rarity etc. Hell, I wasn't even that interested to sell, but it was one of those offers that was too good to refuse. Not that I'll ever regret selling, but it got me thinking, will this game be worth significantly more in 20 years or will it be roughly the same with the biggest increase already far behind us.
I know there has been talk about the latest NWC that popped up and SE seemly cooling a bit from its previous sales, so are these beginning to cap? Will the games that now go for $1000+ eventually climb above $5000? $10000? What do you think SE or NWC will be worth in 10, 30, or 50 years from now?
Price caps are only in one's mind.
Barry Beck was one of the biggest early comic collectors and his thought in the 70s was that Action 1, detective 27 etc could never be worth "more than a good reliable used car" because at that price point "real life" things can be done with the money.
Well, there is no cap, Barry. Those comics soared past the cost of a used car because the buyers became people who did not need cars. Prices depend on two things: supply and demand. Nothing else. Now the mind has a natural tendency to want to benchmark and its for that reason that people lose their shit over new prices.
But the benchmarks are constructs in your mind and not reflective of the market because new buyers enter the market with no such preconstructed benchmarks.
They are a blank slate and the new guy will cheerily pay what to the old guy seems like an outrageous price.
My question is: What future system will not be expensive to collect for? Like will we have a system that the rarest game has like 10,000 copies and is not hard to find? I guess only time will tell.
My bet would be on Xbox 360, but I'm not sure about the 10,000 figure.
I was thinking the same as well. I was just guesing on the number but I would like to hope that in the future we wont have consoles that have only 200 or so production runs of games.
I'm not trying to make this a bubble burst thread... just curious if/when there will ever be a cap on the rarest of games. It would make sense that any game released in this day and age will never be as sought after or go as much as the rare NES carts or even some SNES. I just sold a CIB SNES game for a very high amount of money and am curious if there will be a point where people will refuse to pay a certain amount for a game regardless of rarity etc. Hell, I wasn't even that interested to sell, but it was one of those offers that was too good to refuse. Not that I'll ever regret selling, but it got me thinking, will this game be worth significantly more in 20 years or will it be roughly the same with the biggest increase already far behind us.
I know there has been talk about the latest NWC that popped up and SE seemly cooling a bit from its previous sales, so are these beginning to cap? Will the games that now go for $1000+ eventually climb above $5000? $10000? What do you think SE or NWC will be worth in 10, 30, or 50 years from now?
Price caps are only in one's mind.
Barry Beck was one of the biggest early comic collectors and his thought in the 70s was that Action 1, detective 27 etc could never be worth "more than a good reliable used car" because at that price point "real life" things can be done with the money.
Well, there is no cap, Barry. Those comics soared past the cost of a used car because the buyers became people who did not need cars. Prices depend on two things: supply and demand. Nothing else. Now the mind has a natural tendency to want to benchmark and its for that reason that people lose their shit over new prices.
But the benchmarks are constructs in your mind and not reflective of the market because new buyers enter the market with no such preconstructed benchmarks.
They are a blank slate and the new guy will cheerily pay what to the old guy seems like an outrageous price.
So you think the same will apply to video games? Comic books are quite a bit older. I agree that caps are relative to each person, but is there a point where it just becomes unrealistic for everyone except the very few who have infinite money? What do you think a CIB SE would be worth in 50 years?
I'm not trying to make this a bubble burst thread... just curious if/when there will ever be a cap on the rarest of games. It would make sense that any game released in this day and age will never be as sought after or go as much as the rare NES carts or even some SNES. I just sold a CIB SNES game for a very high amount of money and am curious if there will be a point where people will refuse to pay a certain amount for a game regardless of rarity etc. Hell, I wasn't even that interested to sell, but it was one of those offers that was too good to refuse. Not that I'll ever regret selling, but it got me thinking, will this game be worth significantly more in 20 years or will it be roughly the same with the biggest increase already far behind us.
I know there has been talk about the latest NWC that popped up and SE seemly cooling a bit from its previous sales, so are these beginning to cap? Will the games that now go for $1000+ eventually climb above $5000? $10000? What do you think SE or NWC will be worth in 10, 30, or 50 years from now?
Price caps are only in one's mind.
Barry Beck was one of the biggest early comic collectors and his thought in the 70s was that Action 1, detective 27 etc could never be worth "more than a good reliable used car" because at that price point "real life" things can be done with the money.
Well, there is no cap, Barry. Those comics soared past the cost of a used car because the buyers became people who did not need cars. Prices depend on two things: supply and demand. Nothing else. Now the mind has a natural tendency to want to benchmark and its for that reason that people lose their shit over new prices.
But the benchmarks are constructs in your mind and not reflective of the market because new buyers enter the market with no such preconstructed benchmarks.
They are a blank slate and the new guy will cheerily pay what to the old guy seems like an outrageous price.
So you think the same will apply to video games? Comic books are quite a bit older. I agree that caps are relative to each person, but is there a point where it just becomes unrealistic for everyone except the very few who have infinite money? What do you think a CIB SE would be worth in 50 years?
I'm not making predictions necessarily, I'm just saying anything is possible if people continue to want the stuff. 50 years out is just way too long for me to even guess though
I'm not trying to make this a bubble burst thread... just curious if/when there will ever be a cap on the rarest of games. It would make sense that any game released in this day and age will never be as sought after or go as much as the rare NES carts or even some SNES. I just sold a CIB SNES game for a very high amount of money and am curious if there will be a point where people will refuse to pay a certain amount for a game regardless of rarity etc. Hell, I wasn't even that interested to sell, but it was one of those offers that was too good to refuse. Not that I'll ever regret selling, but it got me thinking, will this game be worth significantly more in 20 years or will it be roughly the same with the biggest increase already far behind us.
I know there has been talk about the latest NWC that popped up and SE seemly cooling a bit from its previous sales, so are these beginning to cap? Will the games that now go for $1000+ eventually climb above $5000? $10000? What do you think SE or NWC will be worth in 10, 30, or 50 years from now?
Price caps are only in one's mind.
Barry Beck was one of the biggest early comic collectors and his thought in the 70s was that Action 1, detective 27 etc could never be worth "more than a good reliable used car" because at that price point "real life" things can be done with the money.
Well, there is no cap, Barry. Those comics soared past the cost of a used car because the buyers became people who did not need cars. Prices depend on two things: supply and demand. Nothing else. Now the mind has a natural tendency to want to benchmark and its for that reason that people lose their shit over new prices.
But the benchmarks are constructs in your mind and not reflective of the market because new buyers enter the market with no such preconstructed benchmarks.
They are a blank slate and the new guy will cheerily pay what to the old guy seems like an outrageous price.
the comic book guy had a decent idea. but if there is only 500 se carts and 30,000 people want one and out of the 30,000 that want one 1,000 of them are so rich they dont know what physical money looks like... 29,000 people wont even be close to being able to pay what the 1,000 fighting for one will be willing to.... is that even a real thing or did i just make that up?
im actually kinda surprised the hobby doesn't have any guys that are rich rich as of now. There are well off guys but the wall st hedge fund manager or the stinking rich (9 figure net worth) businessman who is a real collector ? Don't see em. As high as those numbers are, other hobbies have those guys. Maybe there needs to be more expensive stuff to buy for those guys to even bother
Then again, digital comics and trade paperbacks hardly destroyed vintage comics, and most pirates were never going to pay for the authentic experience anyway.
you're exactly right on that. And the numbers don't have to be so large! Same result if ten make it to market a year, and 12 guys with money want one every year.
im actually kinda surprised the hobby doesn't have any guys that are rich rich as of now. There are well off guys but the wall st hedge fund manager or the stinking rich (9 figure net worth) businessman who is a real collector ? Don't see em. As high as those numbers are, other hobbies have those guys. Maybe there needs to be more expensive stuff to buy for those guys to even bother
Only one i know of is the guy that founded occulus. Hes a bajillionare collector.
It's similar to something like vinyl. There was a huge boom in vinyl, 10-15 years ago because all of the people who grew up with it wanted their collections back. A lot of records which actually sold a lot of copies and had plenty of them manufactured were selling for pretty decent money, despite being extremely common. Now, you can walk into any vinyl store and buy 90% of their titles for a fraction of what they were selling for 10+ years ago, unless it's something really, really rare. Of course, there are still people interested in vinyl, but like any hobby, when the age range of people who grew up with it start to finish their collections, get their fix, or get out of collecting and decide they don't care anymore, prices stabilize and or drop a bit. I'm not psychic, so I can't say what's going to happen with video games, but I can't see it rising and staying hot forever. Same thing happened with baseball cards and comics. They were huge through the 60's, 70's and most of the 80's, so then, a lot of people gobbled up comics and baseball cards all through the 90's and then those markets just crashed. And now days, those hobbies aren't anything like they were 20-30+ years ago. Sure, there's still interest, but nothing like there used to be.
I only see video games sliding down, other than those ultra-rare titles. Especially, as we move further with technology. A majority of people would rather emulate or own games on the virtual consoles or buy crap like the NES mini and such. People like us at NintendoAge are the minority. Most people aren't keeping multiple retro consoles around with a CRT or Framemeister for HDTVs. And even if Joe Six-Pack decides to get ambitious and hook his old consoles up to his HDTV, he's probably going to decide it looks like complete ass and will probably just go the emulation route anyway. So will games and the hobby always hold value to us and the community here? Of course. But, there's still plenty of casuals and tourists out there buying retro because it's hot right now and that's keeping prices steady. Give it a few years and those suckers will get weeded out and the fire will die down a bit. I'm, by no means, saying everything is gonna come crashing down and we'll be buying 99 cent NES carts again. But, it's not gonna ride this high wave forever. It's just not. No market does.
Also people will lose interest like anything else. Truly rare games will hold value because there are enough of us that will stick around for a while and still want those games.
What used to happen:
Rare titles went through droughts, were listed higher and higher at increasing BINs and typically bought. Prices climbed. There was legitimate pent up demand for many titles.
What is happening now:
Rare titles are sitting at BINs and stagnating. People aren't buying them, they are waiting for auctions. You can find practically any game you want available somewhere... for the right price. The sheer fact of it being available cause people to lose interest and not believe something is as rare people say it is.
I'm not speculating on price but I do think that supply has caught up to demand for the most part. There's a lot of people who want to be sellers now at current values and some of these buyers may be left with hot potatoes....
http://nextshark.com/someone-actually-paid-15000-mcdonalds-mulan-szechuan-sauce-ebay/
The rare games are still expensive, and rightfully so, but most others aren't worth that much anymore.
I don't collect NES or SNES or keep up with their prices, so what would I know..?
I'm not trying to make this a bubble burst thread... just curious if/when there will ever be a cap on the rarest of games. It would make sense that any game released in this day and age will never be as sought after or go as much as the rare NES carts or even some SNES. I just sold a CIB SNES game for a very high amount of money and am curious if there will be a point where people will refuse to pay a certain amount for a game regardless of rarity etc. Hell, I wasn't even that interested to sell, but it was one of those offers that was too good to refuse. Not that I'll ever regret selling, but it got me thinking, will this game be worth significantly more in 20 years or will it be roughly the same with the biggest increase already far behind us.
I know there has been talk about the latest NWC that popped up and SE seemly cooling a bit from its previous sales, so are these beginning to cap? Will the games that now go for $1000+ eventually climb above $5000? $10000? What do you think SE or NWC will be worth in 10, 30, or 50 years from now?
Price caps are only in one's mind.
Barry Beck was one of the biggest early comic collectors and his thought in the 70s was that Action 1, detective 27 etc could never be worth "more than a good reliable used car" because at that price point "real life" things can be done with the money.
Well, there is no cap, Barry. Those comics soared past the cost of a used car because the buyers became people who did not need cars. Prices depend on two things: supply and demand. Nothing else. Now the mind has a natural tendency to want to benchmark and its for that reason that people lose their shit over new prices.
But the benchmarks are constructs in your mind and not reflective of the market because new buyers enter the market with no such preconstructed benchmarks.
They are a blank slate and the new guy will cheerily pay what to the old guy seems like an outrageous price.
This
The prices for N64 games is a good example here. The prices have ballooned up ridiculous in the last 2 years, with $50 CIB titles now being hundreds. Look at Worms Armageddon, Clay Fighter Sculptor's Cut, and even Rat Attack for a good example (Rat Attack is still relatively cheap cart only at $20~, but it's well over $100 CIB now). The market keeps going up because people are getting newly interested in the scene, and feel that if they don't scoop the game they desire at the price they see now, that they'll never find it that cheap again. I'm uncomfortable with it, but I know that the prices I've paid accumulating my SNES collection on a lot of games would be considered outrageous to some, but I also collected quite a bit in the mid 2000s so I do know what they once were (and what I paid for a good amount of them too).
The prices for N64 games is a good example here. The prices have ballooned up ridiculous in the last 2 years, with $50 CIB titles now being hundreds. Look at Worms Armageddon, Clay Fighter Sculptor's Cut, and even Rat Attack for a good example (Rat Attack is still relatively cheap cart only at $20~, but it's well over $100 CIB now). The market keeps going up because people are getting newly interested in the scene, and feel that if they don't scoop the game they desire at the price they see now, that they'll never find it that cheap again. I'm uncomfortable with it, but I know that the prices I've paid accumulating my SNES collection on a lot of games would be considered outrageous to some, but I also collected quite a bit in the mid 2000s so I do know what they once were (and what I paid for a good amount of them too).
Not to get too OT, but even N64 already had their rapid growth period... maybe 2012-2014 is when some titles really started tripling overnight.
Rat Attack for example, it was a $25-$50 CIB / Sealed title up until about 2011-2012. I noticed it was in a drought so I tried to flipped my dupe CIB for a high price and it did go for $279.99 on 6-16-13, looks like it is still the highest recorded sale on Pricecharting actually...
https://www.pricecharting.com/game/nintendo-64/rat-attack#completed-auctions-cib
Now what you see as rapid growth from $75-$200 is really still under the highs this game set 3 years ago. Personally feels like that game is meant to be around $100-$150 IMO, depending on condition and if poster is included.
Anyways, this does all tie back to the initial point of the thread. The rapid growth periods for ALL of the retro systems are already behind us. Maybe a title here or there balloons up on a Youtube hype video but that's it. From here on out you expect slow growth at best, tapering off at worst. The rarest of the rare may be exceptions but everything else will follow the trend.