Inflated Sealed Prices due to Mario $100k sale?
Anyone else feel like the going rate for NES sealed cart prices are over-inflated? Is this just due to people trying to capture the potential influx of non-lifelong collectors sparking interest in the hobby since news of this SMB $100k sale?
All the historical prices on Game Value Now are a lot lower than what i'm seeing on Ebay etc....even on recent sales pre-May 2019.
All the historical prices on Game Value Now are a lot lower than what i'm seeing on Ebay etc....even on recent sales pre-May 2019.
Comments
Only thing ive noticed trend down are common popular titles that were on the nes snd snes classic. So i dont really agree with the above. Cib sqoons and bubble bobble 2s dont sell publicly enough to get a reliable average. One sale influences the avg quite a bit. Condition isnt factored on gvn so a trash cib of a sqoon ends way low and you could have a plummeting avg. dont put so much faith in website niche rare cib avgs.
My theory: It won't hold up for long.
Comic collectors will get bored fairly quick when they realize that the only truly rare and significant items in this hobby are really not plentiful...in sheer terms of amount of "grails" anyway.
NES - We've got 30 black boxes (not all of which are rare sealed), two competition cartridges, some dozen or so hard to find first print AAA fan favorites, and a dozen or so rare for rarity sake titles.
SNES - we've got four competition carts...two of which only matter, a few more than NES hard to find first print AAA fan favorites, and again a dozen or so rare for rarity sake titles.
N64 - has one kinda rare manual, and some NFRs, and some variant boxes I guess.
Gamecube - Pokémon Box?
SMS - Sonic stickers, and a fighting game
Genesis - Outback Joey, Sonic, couple fan favorites.....and of course Mega Drive Tetris.
32X - all the rarest titles are grails for these guys so hats off to them for this baby library.
Sega CD & Saturn I know little about...but Silvergun, Panzer Dragoon saga, Kieo, Snatcher, and Daytona are the big guns I think.
Atari / Odyssey / Coleco / Intellivision are mostly forgotten by now and I think very few people even care that these systems even exist anymore despite the high priced items traded amongst a select few diehard enthusiasts (pssst: that's our fate with NES/SNES/GB)
Neo Geo - tons of fun stuff here...but so limited that the market might not even notice a price change.
TG16 - finally the people holding onto the dozens of sealed Magical Chases out there will let them go. But that's it for super rares.
CD-I / 3DO - these are also mostly forgotten libraries.
Post-millennium consoles: Fan favorites and that's it.
There's probably 100-150 titles out of the 35000+ console & handheld games that exist that actually might pique the interest of the new collectors.
Anything beyond fan favorites, pure rarity collectors items, or crossover mass media titles are just not going to be on the radar for these guys.
Combination of things. New collectors, new interest, new venue (heritage), new grading co, but also: high end sealed stuff had been pretty stable for a good five years without a lot of upward movement. Busting through to a new plateau was kind of overdue.
No, this is all your fault!
Combination of things. New collectors, new interest, new venue (heritage), new grading co, but also: high end sealed stuff had been pretty stable for a good five years without a lot of upward movement. Busting through to a new plateau was kind of overdue.
No, this is all your fault!
Funny, but this question/topic has been similar for my ten years on the site. Prices haven't really done much but rise (quite a bit actually) for the most part. A few stalls over the years, but that's about it. Which is a win win for the hobby.
Probably not as much of a win for the people looking to jump into it.
Do you.....
1. Wait and hope they come down?
2. Offer a deal somewhere in the middle?
3. Generally accept that prices have moved up and accept the new market reality?
I guess, because of little experience that I have, it's hard for me to know what a fair market value is on some of these auctions when the delta between the last historical deal price is so far away from what's being currently offered.....
Thanks, as always.
Potentially stupid question.....what would some of the more experienced folks here do if....you saw auctions that were priced well above any historical prices you can find on the internet?
Do you.....
1. Wait and hope they come down?
2. Offer a deal somewhere in the middle?
3. Generally accept that prices have moved up and accept the new market reality?
I guess, because of little experience that I have, it's hard for me to know what a fair market value is on some of these auctions when the delta between the last historical deal price is so far away from what's being currently offered.....
Thanks, as always.
Desireable sealed games will likely never come down in price. Ever. I always offer prices, and I don't think I've ever paid record prices on anything sealed I own/have owned. I do accept that the market has changed.
That being said, I'm still cautious whenever there's a paradigm shift. So I'm being even more conservative than normal about my purchases. For example: I turned away from a sealed Mario 1 oval seal for $2000 because I have no faith at all in the price, and I DONT want it for that price.
Potentially stupid question.....what would some of the more experienced folks here do if....you saw auctions that were priced well above any historical prices you can find on the internet?
Do you.....
1. Wait and hope they come down?
2. Offer a deal somewhere in the middle?
3. Generally accept that prices have moved up and accept the new market reality?
I guess, because of little experience that I have, it's hard for me to know what a fair market value is on some of these auctions when the delta between the last historical deal price is so far away from what's being currently offered.....
Thanks, as always.
You wait. Enjoy the games you've picked up at a fair price and wait for the unfair offers to be replaced by fair ones. For example, I have been trying to pick up Gaiares for about 3 months. It had many recent loose sales at $27-$30. I haven't seen a loose copy under $55-$60 since I began looking. At the same time my Mega SG and 15 other games arrived. Why should I pay up when I am enhoying myself. The game will be there in the future.
Prices have gone up and are likely to continue doing so for now.
One thing I would point out is on a case-by-case basis, the asking price all by itself is meaningless. There's listings of SMB/DH for $100, that doesn't mean anybody is going to pay that. If it's not an auction with valid bids, the seller could well be dreaming, or fishing.
Potentially stupid question.....what would some of the more experienced folks here do if....you saw auctions that were priced well above any historical prices you can find on the internet?
Do you.....
1. Wait and hope they come down?
2. Offer a deal somewhere in the middle?
3. Generally accept that prices have moved up and accept the new market reality?
I guess, because of little experience that I have, it's hard for me to know what a fair market value is on some of these auctions when the delta between the last historical deal price is so far away from what's being currently offered.....
Thanks, as always.
There are no guarantees, but quality material has always seemed expensive and will always seem expensive.
I suspect quality material won't be getting cheaper any time soo
Potentially stupid question.....what would some of the more experienced folks here do if....you saw auctions that were priced well above any historical prices you can find on the internet?
Do you.....
1. Wait and hope they come down?
2. Offer a deal somewhere in the middle?
3. Generally accept that prices have moved up and accept the new market reality?
I guess, because of little experience that I have, it's hard for me to know what a fair market value is on some of these auctions when the delta between the last historical deal price is so far away from what's being currently offered.....
Thanks, as always.
You wait. Enjoy the games you've picked up at a fair price and wait for the unfair offers to be replaced by fair ones. For example, I have been trying to pick up Gaiares for about 3 months. It had many recent loose sales at $27-$30. I haven't seen a loose copy under $55-$60 since I began looking. At the same time my Mega SG and 15 other games arrived. Why should I pay up when I am enhoying myself. The game will be there in the future.
On loose copies that's very much it, you can sit back and wait.
On sealed stuff, waiting bites you in the ass, generally speaking. That game you thought would always be there for 1 grand is 5 grand one day, without warning, without time for you to adjust.
Potentially stupid question.....what would some of the more experienced folks here do if....you saw auctions that were priced well above any historical prices you can find on the internet?
Do you.....
1. Wait and hope they come down?
2. Offer a deal somewhere in the middle?
3. Generally accept that prices have moved up and accept the new market reality?
I guess, because of little experience that I have, it's hard for me to know what a fair market value is on some of these auctions when the delta between the last historical deal price is so far away from what's being currently offered.....
Thanks, as always.
There are no guarantees, but quality material has always seemed expensive and will always seem expensive.
I suspect quality material won't be getting cheaper any time soo
If we can agree that the economy is declining then i think the conversation would be a little more interesting. I think that some luxury goods still did well during the great recession including some art. But to me it seems like sealed games as art is still in the intoductory phase of the product development cycle. If sealed games as art were further along the life cycle and in the hands o only people with excess disposable income, I think you might be right that it could hold value during a downturn. But I think sealed games are still going to get lumped together with video games and whether the price drops will be determined by how much the people who own sealed games need money. I mean you had/have a nearly omplete sealed nes collection right? So you should be okay for cash. But how many sealed game collectors aren't as comfortable?
And if we are veiwing sealed games as art we also have to look at them as an investment. If we are going into a recession shouldn't better opportunites for investment become available. I'd also say that the previous owner if this site sold his sealed collection. Whether that was essential to the sale of Nintendoage or because he didn't have confidence in the sealed prices to go up is anybodys guess.
Potentially stupid question.....what would some of the more experienced folks here do if....you saw auctions that were priced well above any historical prices you can find on the internet?
Do you.....
1. Wait and hope they come down?
2. Offer a deal somewhere in the middle?
3. Generally accept that prices have moved up and accept the new market reality?
I guess, because of little experience that I have, it's hard for me to know what a fair market value is on some of these auctions when the delta between the last historical deal price is so far away from what's being currently offered.....
Thanks, as always.
If it's too high for my blood, I'm out. I only buy things if I can get them for lower than the current going rate, or I'll trade games of a similar value or in favor of the person I'm trading with (especially if I'm trading for a rarer/more expensive piece). If something has spiked seemingly overnight, I admit defeat and wait. Prices almost always come down at least a little bit after a sudden spike. Look at Flintstones surprise at dinosaur peak. That's a great example. Or any 3ds collectors edition system.
You can find a fair market value pretty easily by looking through eBay auctions and seeing what they sold for recently and compare those prices to current listings. Or check out pricecharting.com. you can also compare to Amazon prices but Amazon's prices are often inflated due to sellers losing 20% ish in fees (among other reasons).
What percentage of the collecting community is even into sealed games? I don't personally know any sealed collectors. I have to imagine the market is small enough that the numbers are always in flux. Something that's $10k today could be $3k tomorrow if the seller is desperate.
I would imagine it's very low, or people do what I do and only get sealed copies for their favorite games. I don't think too many of us make nearly enough to be able to go for a full sealed set for any system.
Those who can play.... play..... those who can't sit on the side and watch. No different that comics, cards, art or any other mainstream collectible.
What percentage of the collecting community is even into sealed games? I don't personally know any sealed collectors. I have to imagine the market is small enough that the numbers are always in flux. Something that's $10k today could be $3k tomorrow if the seller is desperate.
Low, but climbing some.
I tend to agree with the bolded, but I think it's fair to say there's value as a sealed collector in protecting a price, if that makes any sense. Say the market price for a sealed Silent Service is 10k, and you have one you picked up for 5k before the latest price spike, if another seller becomes desperate and drops the price by 7 thousand, it's probably in your interests to contact them and nab it before it's out there too long, you can relist your extra back for the market rate and you're into two copies for less than the going rate of one.
I'm a couch sitter for sure, I have a few factory sealed games, I had more but I wanted to play them so I opened them. Also, bear in mind that what I just said is 1000% speculation on my part, and I'm just a random dude on the internet with pretty much zero experience in the high end sealed gaming community. Your milage may vary.
Nintendo based games/collecting is starting to pick up on the higher end items (surprised it took this long) I will say this is old news for Neo Geo AES collecting. 89 games that make up the US set are well over 100k combined..... the rarest games haven't sniffed eBay in years.
Those who can play.... play..... those who can't sit on the side and watch. No different that comics, cards, art or any other mainstream collectible.
AES since it’s inception was always “that expensive system” it’s like LaserActive but fun.
Nintendo was always...well Nintendo. Approachable, friendly, your common childhood memory.....and cheap.
Im willing to bet that some AES games have never dipped below retail price.
I think this is all just beginning and video games have been relatively underpriced for a very long time. Might slow down for a bit after a hot start, but the line will keen pointing up at a 45 degree angle.
I agree for most top franchises like Zelda, Mario and Sonic. I don’t know about 45 degree shit I can’t say items aren’t already there with hertiage sales lol
It's also simple supply demand. The new buyer demand is outpacing supply. Eventually that supply starts to build up when people list at high BINs / OBOs and that hurts interest or makes rare items look not so rare. Supply always catches up except on the top 1% of the truly rare / mint stuff and prices will subside. Longterm trend still gradually up but the jumping by leaps and bounds stuff will come back to reality.
Examples. NWC going from $6.5k to $15-$17.5k and back to $10-$12k (it's way beyond that now), SE going from $7.5k to $10k to $13k back to $8k, both of those were 2014-2015ish. You could cite similar things in sealed too, I remember some titles jumping from $1500 to $2500 and back to the $1800-$2000 range too. Trend still goes up over time but people that buy at the peak get hurt if they decide to sell quickly. DreamTR also has sold NWCs and bought back (from his buyer) at fractions of what they paid.
Best advice I can give, don't chase what's hot. Chase what you like that is still fairly priced and let the hot stuff cool off. For example, if you made your favorite 10 games of all time then sure Mario or Zelda may make that list but you probably have some oddballs too. Get the oddballs to fuel your passion and start in the hobby that way.
Eh I agree that the longterm trend is always slightly up but this near term spike won't hold outside of really rare / mint / key titles.
I'd say that there's new interest, with money, but its not necessarily smart money yet. It values things in the way its used to in its own backyard, doesn't always understand rarity, condition rarity for the title, variant rarity in condition etc etc etc.
As a result, I think that looking at it as a tide, as a lift to all prices that will eventually come down on all or almost all prices is not really the right way to look at it. Some stuff is just flat going for too much right now, but some stuff will look cheap in the future. There will be a long term trend that pulls out of what's happening now, but it won't just be "everything's up" or even "everything's down". In other words while there may be ebbs and flows to the overall market there will also be a long term reallocation of emphasis.
That already happens in the long term - for example, the slide unlicensed has been on the last 10 years. That process of shaking the wheat from the chaff will be exacerberated with new collectors and new money pressurizing and expediating the process. They will leave their stamp on values going forward but they will also pick up information from us and adapt their viewpoints as they become smarter.
I came from comics 17 years ago. When I started, I hadn't heard of Little Samson, let alone did I give AF about it. I learned more about games and grew to appreciate the title immensely, but I also came in with my own value biases from my experiences in comics in the past which favored going after best possible condition. I voted that way with my money when I went to the marketplace to collect. So too will they vote with their dollars the way that makes sense to them. It WILL pull or speed up a trend out of all of this. There will also be overall market ups and downs as per normal at the same time.