The future of retro collecting....
Maybe this thread has been discussed but, here goes....
No one wants to see their passion fall by the wayside or their prized collection plummet in value. However, history has shown many of the collecting "fads" that were mainstream seem to dwindle down to just a few. With it many of the saught after items seemed to fall in value. Just look at baseball cards, toys, comics. Not to mention a few others in the recent past like POGS, Pokeymon cards, and Beanie Babies.
I remember not too long ago when the comic rage hit. The market was flooded with collectors editions and new spin offs to make as many first editions as possible. Now today we see the value of said comics are less than half of their cover price. Don't get me wrong I'm not putting Superman vol.1 in the same class by no means. But, I'm sure even the value of that single issue has fallen some. If only for the sheer drop in numbers of people looking for it.
It makes me wonder if once the fad wears off if our passion might suffer the same fate. And, yes I am a new comer to retro games but the more I'm around it the more I love it!!
Comments
I think video game collecting as a whole will live on forever, although I think it'll go through generation fads. NES is the hot item now, SNES has picked up steam and will probably be the hot item in 3-5 years, and PSX will shortly follow.
I think popular games, like Marios / Mega Mans / etc. will never go down in value. However, I think some of the rare stuff that serves no playable purpose will peak eventually at some point. That's about as much as I'll say for now.
This has been discussed a million times and it turns into a war since there are a lot of people on both sides of the fence: i.e some think they'll go up forever and some think NES is approaching it's peak.
I think video game collecting as a whole will live on forever, although I think it'll go through generation fads. NES is the hot item now, SNES has picked up steam and will probably be the hot item in 3-5 years, and PSX will shortly follow.
I think popular games, like Marios / Mega Mans / etc. will never go down in value. However, I think some of the rare stuff that serves no playable purpose will peak eventually at some point. That's about as much as I'll say for now.
From an investment standpoint VERY few games actually hold their value in real dollars, and even fewer appreciate in value. People pursuing the hobby for financial gain (with a buy-and-hold mentality vs. resellers who turn an immediate profit) would be better off actually investing in other things. The collectibles market is way too fickle, in my opinion, and unlike the stock market (where companies have real earnings potential and true value) collectibles truly require a "greater fool" for you to profit from.
Just look at baseball cards, toys, comics. Not to mention a few others in the recent past like POGS, Pokeymon cards, and Beanie Babies.
I remember not too long ago when the comic rage hit. The market was flooded with collectors editions and new spin offs to make as many first editions as possible.
I don't think you can compare any of those to retro games. Cards (for the most part), comics (for the most part), beanie babies and pogs were being collected while they were still being produced in massive quantities.
Retro games have not been produced, or had 'new first editions' produced for over 20 years.
The only one that would kind of compare would be certain collectible toys.
Just my .02
No one wants to see their passion fall by the wayside or their prized collection plummet in value.
I kind of do. I have a lot more games to play
From an investment standpoint VERY few games actually hold their value in real dollars, and even fewer appreciate in value. People pursuing the hobby for financial gain (with a buy-and-hold mentality vs. resellers who turn an immediate profit) would be better off actually investing in other things. The collectibles market is way too fickle, in my opinion, and unlike the stock market (where companies have real earnings potential and true value) collectibles truly require a "greater fool" for you to profit from.
Couple quick points.
1) Usually you'd be right, but in this economy there isn't anything stable to invest in IMO. Stocks are all over the place, and the stock market is ignorant to the real news behind the scenes. We have banks reporting "profits" that were really just taxpayer bailout money from the Government laundered through AIG. Shit will hit the fan at some point and I don't want a single cent invested there...
2) Gold is all over the place too, not a stable investment either.
3) It doesn't matter if the game holds it's value from when it came out (i.e. $60 brand new), it matters if it holds its value from the moment you acquired it. If you buy a $5 game and sell it for $10, it still "gained value" to you even if it was really down 80% from it's initial sticker price. I know you have to consider inflation if you hold the game for a long time, but this doesn't matter on quick turns.
I would just say on point #1 Jone that there is always money to be made even when times are shitty in the stock market bro. SETH back me up here man. Personally I dollar cost averaged into WFC in the $20's and $30's and sold all my shares (about 2,000 at the time) at $44.56 and put that money into a money market account, didn't make much but didn't lose. Then it plummeted down to the $7 range per share and I bought it again at around $10. Well I just sold the shares today at $25.86 ahead of tomorrow's bank stress test. Buy on the rumor/sell on the news baby! There is always money to be made my man!
Oh I agree there's always money to be made somewhere, but I'm speaking as to the average person. I consider myself an "average person" who isn't knowledgable enough in the stock market to know the diamonds in the rough to turn at a profit.
You can just as easily make profit by reselling retro video games, as well as having an entertaining hobby. Look at all of the resellers on this site who can testify to this. You don't have to necessarily buy games as investments, but rather you just have to know the ins and outs of a system and grab auctions that go below market value. Then you turn around a quick profit go back and do it again.
Also, Jonas, all your point does is reinforce what I said about resellers being the only ones who will consistently make a profit (because you're buying cheap stuff, in bulk, with the purpose of immediately churning for a profit). If instead you held onto ALL of that stuff, you would have almost certainly profited more from other investments.
To me, gold is just an apocalypse hedge. I don't keep much metals around, but I keep enough that I'm covered if all the fiat currencies fail (I also keep enough bullets and canned goods for this situation as well...which will arguably be more valuable in the short term of such a scenario).
Jonas, I don't care if you agree with me and Erik on the markets right now, or not...but if you aren't buying in because you're afraid of the short-term volatility, you will look back 10 years from now and regret it.
I would just say on point #1 Jone that there is always money to be made even when times are shitty in the stock market bro. SETH back me up here man. Personally I dollar cost averaged into WFC in the $20's and $30's and sold all my shares (about 2,000 at the time) at $44.56 and put that money into a money market account, didn't make much but didn't lose. Then it plummeted down to the $7 range per share and I bought it again at around $10. Well I just sold the shares today at $25.86 ahead of tomorrow's bank stress test. Buy on the rumor/sell on the news baby! There is always money to be made my man!
DAMN BRO!!!!!!! I should have become a banker.
I would just say on point #1 Jone that there is always money to be made even when times are shitty in the stock market bro. There is always money to be made my man!
Same goes for real estate. Everyone talks about how horrible the stock market and real estate are, absolutely not true for the opportunistic individual.
resellers... video games...
I wonder how diluted the market is by resellers. How many purchases wouldn't exist without the expectation that you could turn around and sell to someone else. What percentage of all purchases are by sellers.
Please note the lack of question marks.
resellers... video games...
I wonder how diluted the market is by resellers. How many purchases wouldn't exist without the expectation that you could turn around and sell to someone else. What percentage of all purchases are by sellers.
Please note the lack of question marks.
Thanks for letting us know that it was rhetorical
resellers... video games...
I wonder how diluted the market is by resellers. How many purchases wouldn't exist without the expectation that you could turn around and sell to someone else. What percentage of all purchases are by sellers.
Please note the lack of question marks.
No one should buy to resell anything. There should be no economy.
Nathan, I meant that I didn't make much on the dollars that I put into the money market account but I didn't lose either. The WFC trade is only a part of my investments/401K/IRA/Esop/Options stuff... I just meant that the money was safe and didn't fluctuate in the money market account while the rest of my stuff was going down with the broader market. Now the tides are rising and bringing all ships back up which is why I am long the market and don't look at the short term volatility. I would think everyone here should be long and not sweat the short term. The profit I locked in today and the profit I made before were both of course Very Nice!
I know what you mean. But the way the sentence was written cracked me up.
Beanie Babies, Pogs, Pokemon Cards etc etc, they were all mass produced in one go to forfill a current fad. However, Video Games are something that will constantly be updated. Newer machines, newer games, it wont end.
You say its reaching its peak right now, however youre failing to see the truth behind it. Or at least the truth I believe...
I wouldnt say its a peak, but more a beginning.
Lets think about it. Im gonna take a wild guess that the majority of NES gamers were between the ages 5-16 when it came out.
So fast forward to now, twenty years on, we have 25ish+ year olds who have just finished University, settling down in a career and maybe in a nice small place to live with a partner. Bills paid for each month, but a nice little chunk of the wage left over. With nothing else to spend it on, current gaming getting boring and a sudden rush of nostalgia, you have a new retro gaming fan born.
Its a very generalised idea, but hear me out...
A few years back, retro gaming really wasnt that big. Alot of the rares could be had alot cheaper as not many people knew they were that rare, nor was there much demand for them. However now, we have a vast array of retro gaming information, everybodys blogs, video blogs, gaming reviews, news and so on. Retro gaming is something mentioned constantly and growing in force, you cant avoid it.
Reto Gaming Comps for modern consoles. Even stuff liek the Retro Duo being released. Everyone is constantly being reminded of the gaming past and pushed towards starting it up again...
What will also push the value up on these games is the fact that there are only so many of them.
How many of you have thrown a NES game out thats broken or damaged? Im sure a few of you have.
Now multiply that by thousands to cover all the games that have been stood on, smashed etc. Now take into consideration the parents clearing out kids rooms once they move out and dumping it all.
As sad as it is to say, im positive a large amount of NES games get thrown away every day. This will only make the value rise.
Another factor to take into consideration is us. Most of these new comers will have very little knowledge. Us lot however, well there are threads saying 'We have these games' full of the Bubble Bath Babes sort and NWC carts etc.
Lets be honest, these games are never gonna leave your palms unless youre six feet under. So, once again another factor that will then make the value rise. If all but one of the NTSC Stadium Events existing are locked away in NA members collections, I think silly money will be paid for the last one left.
So remembering what I said about the young people (like me and you) who
have this little bit extra disposable income, they begin fighting over
the rares and in demand titles.
As they rise up the career ladder, they have more money to battle for
the rares with. Until, before you know it, the value on alot of these
has really risen up.
Im sure as well that most of you would happily live off baken beans if it meant you could snag another rare for the collection, I know I would.
A good example in my eyes would be comics. Im pretty sure the same thing happened with Spiderman #1. Think about it, it came out around the sixties and most of the people who are after it now are from that era or new comers to the scene.
So in my opinion. Dont leave it too late to get thoses rares youve been after.
No one should buy to resell anything. There should be no economy.
I guess that's exactly what I'm saying.
I suppose if someone wants to be a part of the kind of economy that's propped up by selling to sellers, there's nothing stopping them.
No one should buy to resell anything. There should be no economy.
I guess that's exactly what I'm saying.
I suppose if someone wants to be a part of the kind of economy that's propped up by selling to sellers, there's nothing stopping them.
the sellers eventually find an end user. what's the problem there?
edit:spelling
The value of games will only go up and up in my opinion.
So fast forward to now, twenty years on, we have 25ish+ year olds who have just finished University, settling down in a career and maybe in a nice small place to live with a partner. Bills paid for each month, but a nice little chunk of the wage left over. With nothing else to spend it on, current gaming getting boring and a sudden rush of nostalgia, you have a new retro gaming fan born.
I'm fairly certain that by the time MOST of the NES generation is in their 40's, they will have many other priorities that take precedence over collecting high dollar NES games. Yes there will still be a few die-hards, but I'm pretty sure their numbers will be fewer than today, and the "new" die-hards will be chasing systems/games that most of us couldn't care less about.
I think that this thread has lost it's purpose. Back on track...I really collect because I like it, if all you sons-a-bitches sell out in a couple years, I'm sure that there will still be plenty of us to pick up the pieces. As long as video games are made, there will be collectors. And they will all want a piece of the best!
Amen to that one
I'm fairly certain that by the time MOST of the NES generation is in their 40's, they will have many other priorities that take precedence over collecting high dollar NES games. Yes there will still be a few die-hards, but I'm pretty sure their numbers will be fewer than today, and the "new" die-hards will be chasing systems/games that most of us couldn't care less about.
I am fairly certain by the time I am in my forties I will have all the high dollar nes games I want. A lot of people will have that stuff already as well. That is where it gets tricky.
What will also push the value up on these games is the fact that there are only so many of them. How many of you have thrown a NES game out thats broken or damaged? Im sure a few of you have. Now multiply that by thousands to cover all the games that have been stood on, smashed etc. Now take into consideration the parents clearing out kids rooms once they move out and dumping it all.
As sad as it is to say, im positive a large amount of NES games get thrown away every day. This will only make the value rise.
Wrong, it makes the supply diminish which indirectly impacts value. Value is a combination of supply/demand. If the supply diminishes but the demand does as well, there is no value increase. Very important to understand this, otherwise a NES hands-free accessory would be worth thousands and thousands of dollars because many of them have long been thrown out and they very seldom pop up. But there's no demand, so there's no crazy price tag associated with it.
Another factor to take into consideration is us. Most of these new comers will have very little knowledge. Us lot however, well there are threads saying 'We have these games' full of the Bubble Bath Babes sort and NWC carts etc.
Lets be honest, these games are never gonna leave your palms unless youre six feet under. So, once again another factor that will then make the value rise. If all but one of the NTSC Stadium Events existing are locked away in NA members collections, I think silly money will be paid for the last one left.
I guess you haven't noticed, but there's a LOT of turn-over in this hobby (see Jaredk's thread). People come and go ALL the time, so Panesians and SEs always change hands. A few might "take them to the grave" as you suggest, but many will change hands, especially since money talks.
So remembering what I said about the young people (like me and you) who
have this little bit extra disposable income, they begin fighting over
the rares and in demand titles. As they rise up the career ladder, they have more money to battle for
the rares with. Until, before you know it, the value on alot of these
has really risen up.
Im sure as well that most of you would happily live off baken beans if it meant you could snag another rare for the collection, I know I would.
As people grow up, they have more responsibilities. The 20-30 age group is made up of lots of young single successful people with loads of money to spend. 30+ is made up of lots of married people who probably would rather spend money improving the quality of their children's life rather than pursuing a collection. Not to say that ALL people think like this, but I bet the average one does. Just ask a married man how many hobbies he's given up as he ages, whether it be sports / collecting / working on cars / etc. People just become too busy with responsibilities to keep doing all of the things they enjoyed as a kid.
Put my comments in bold.
It doesn't get tricky at all. If everybody who really cares about that stuff already has it, then there is no demand and no way to recapture your "investment".
Agreed, but the good news is I only have $500 and time invested in this hobby for around 1200 games. Buying in lots and re selling the extras after that initial investment. So the time I wouldn't get back anyway (of course it could have been used for working or what not) Maybe I will cash out the $500 this month