Responsibility.
I've thrown around this Idea quite a bit. I won't likely change how I collect and sell. Do we have a responsibility to keep Video Game collecting from bombing like It did with Baseball Cards and Comics in the mid 90s.
Comments
We don't have to worry about that. Even if 20 video game console companies came out of nowhere, it would only crash the market at that generation, i.e. if it happened in the year 2015 then games in 2015 would probably have little collectible value. Even original Topps baseball cards are still worth a bit of money, and the original NES games will always be worth money as well (assuming Nintendo never goes bankrupt).
Agreed, very good points, jonebone.
(ASSUMING you mean classic system video game collecting)
Not going to happen. There's too many places online for collectors to converge nowadays for that to happen. You have to remember that in the mid 90s, the internet wasn't like it is now. Case in point: Baseball Card and Comic collecting have both made a big comeback since then, because of places like this forum where people can meet and trade and keep things interesting.
Now, when everyone that is old enough to get nostalgic about these things is dead, then the collecting will stop. That is, unless our kids also play the classic systems and get nostalgia, then the cycle starts all over again ... Except with Robots.
I wonder if Atari and Sega going bankrupt had anything to do with their values? I know the Jag and SMS have their gems. However, the Genesis and 2600 are almost a dime a dozen for the more common games.
I can't give the Astrocade away we have. LOL From a retail standpoint the "Atari" gen games and systems just sit there. By that I mean the Intellivision, Oddsey, and the Astrocade. The only time one of those go out of the store is when a collector comes in. And, they mostly want CIB or the more uncommon games.
Only time will tell if the NES and others will hold on to the collector value. On another note, I never thought the "disk" games would ever be sought after. But, what ya know the PS1 stuff has been flying off the shelf. Even then it is mainly black label RPGs.
1). Huge production numbers. Games now a days are so cheap to produce that they ARE produces in vastly larger numbers than games in past generations. Even so called PS1 games had print runs in the 50k range if not more.
2)Todays generation is much more into digital downloads. Combine this with companies willingness to re-release most of their blockbuster titles on downloadable services, such as xboxLive, PSN network , and wii ware, and you'll see less of a demand for the real thing. Now, I perfer to play Castlevania SotN on my ps1, but there's plenty of people willing to settle for a $10 download on PSN. This trend has grown over the past couple years and I believe it will continue to grow with the generation of people who have grown up in the age of bit torrent, and itunes.
I think the older stuff will always retain SOME value. It's mostly dependent and proportinal on the generation that grew up with said system and how popular said system was. Atari games for the most intensive purposes has already peaked and it did so in the last 90's early 2000's. The super rare, "Collectible" games will hold their value, and may very well continue to increase in value, but the majority of mid-rares and commons have already crashed. I think Nes stuff has largely hit it's peak in the last year or 2 and that prices are leveling out and that mid-rares and commons are starting to fall, much like Atari did. Likewise, I expect the super rare nes titles to retain their value and most likely increase in value over time. Things like SE, F2, Myraid, etc.
Furthermore, I used to think that the genesis had potential to increase, but I've start to re-evaluate that idea. Unlike Nintendo, Sega does not have a current gen system, and really hasn't had new retail exposure since the early 2000's with the Dreamcast's demise. Although the genesis had a strong following back in the day, it's popularity was eclipsed by the snes before the end of that console generation, and without a modern retail face, the nostagia just isn't there except for the true sega fans. Not saying the genesis won't rebound, but just that it has some things against it.
That being said, I think the Super Nes still has good potential to become a major collector's system, as it had the large user base in it's lifetime, and still has a retail face. I think the N64, with larger production numbers, weaker, smaller library, and lower market share during it's retail lifespan will not fair as well.
As for Disc based stuff, I think PS1 may have some real potential, as it had a large retail install base, the production numbers while higher are no where near PS2 numbers, and time has shown that condition may play a roll. Not sure if PS1 will take off, but there is potential there. I kinda feel the same way with dreamcast as it had a cult like following, but it also has the fact that it had a smaller install base and no current retail face working against it.
PS2-current gen----here we've reached , for the most part, huge production numbers and moving into the generation of digital download. There are so called "rare" ps2 games, but really none of them can really hold a value so far. there's just too many copies out there. Also, you have GQD re-printing a lot of the games that became rare and making them not so rare. I think that like the current gen of video game systems that we'll see digital download of any ps2, xbox, GC games that have enough demand, available for download on future consoles. This combine with a willingness to accept these downloads, the original gamess, while holding some value, will not reach any crazy prices, as the digital download will fill the nostalgic need of the gamers who grew up with these games.
For the Future...I've said this some other places before, but I'll say it here. I truly believe that we're getting closer everyday to 100% digital download. With the success of xboxlive, wii ware, and PSN, game companies are starting to extend the digital distribution buisness model. See the Nintendo DSI, and upcoming PSP without a UMD reader that will have downloadable games only. There are already games that are exclusively downloads, and as time goes forward I believe the industry will transition completely to downloads. It saves them tons of money in manufacturing, distribution, etc. Also, they can monitor their systems with updates and such to combat piracy more easily. I for one prefer a physical copy with art work and such, but as I stated before I believe I may be in a generation gap. Today's gamer is much more concerned with the game itself as opposed to it's distribution method. My point being that within a generation or 2, I don't think there's going to be anything physical to actually collect.
1) Large production numbers, agreed. But Chrono Trigger and Earthbound aren't "rare" either, and have stupidly high values due to being in demand.
2) I'd argue that digital downloads increase the demand for the original. Downloads are infinite, if 20 million people want to download Castlevania on PS3 then they can. At a price of $10, they are likely to attract gamers who never played the game, while a $100 hard-copy disk will deter many people from giving it a chance. If a lot of these newcomers like the game then they could very well grab the hard-copy as well. Not saying this would happen, just providing an alternate perspective... but the hard-copy games are finite.
3) I don't think Sega or Atari will ever have values comparable to NES on the whole, i.e. the average value. Every system is bound to have some rare games worth a premium, but on the whole Nintendo is leading the way due to their stability, sort of how Hondas and Toyotas hold value better than Ford / GM (especially now). However, I do believe that certain Sega exclusives have a good potential to gain value because many are not emulated on the virtual console and were actually fun games.
4) SNES will be a huge collectible system, I expect it to mirror NES. I disagree about N64. I think N64 will be a very collectible system since A) It's the last cartridge based one
5) "Not sure if PS1 will take off?", well it already did. PS1 values have already begun their climb, and no telling where they will stop. PS1 is the NES of Sony, the first in their line of systems and believe me there are a LOT of dedicated Sony fanboys out there, just look at all of the 360 vs. PS3 debates. One thing against Sony is that they have lost a TON of money this generation and could legitimately go bankrupt if they bomb next generation too. Nintendo was hurting from the gamecube but bounced back with the Wii, it will be interesting to see what Sony drops after the PS3.
6) Last but not least, I seriously doubt digital downloads will ever replace the market. MP3s and iTunes have been around for awhile but people still buy CDs (although probably not as much as they used to, but many still go Gold or Platnum). People can download movies directly from their cable provider, or even record them, but yet we still buy DVDs or Blu-Rays. We'll just agree to disagree on this point, because you really could argue either way.
Thanks for taking the time to type out your thoughts, you provide very interesting arguments that should pave the way for a good debate.
1) While Chrono Trigger and Earthbound aren't truly rare numbers wise, their numbers are far less than say Marvel Vs Capcom 2 for ps2, hence why demand can out pace the supply. I don't know if current generation demand can ever out number the supply. Look at things like Paper Mario for the N64 or any other N64 game that once held a high value, like snowboard kids 2. These games have all gone down in value as more copies have shown up and exceeded demand.
2)Atari and Sega already DID have comparable values to NES, Atari2600 games were even crazier than NES ever was in the last 90's, there were several games that were worth upwards of $300 and that have crashed down to $100 or $75. Things like Phantasy Star 4 and Pirate's Gold for genesis routinely used to push $100 years ago. Now both systems do have their true rares which have held or increased in value, but both systems have declined overall in recent years. Nes is NOT stable. It has seen a rapid increase in the last 2 years, and if history has tought us anything, it's do for a deflation of some sort. Hell, I think you've already seen it with some titles.
3)SNES has already seen some increase, but I haven't seen the entire library take off like NES has yet, so I think this is still a possibility. I still disagree about N64, Maybe Clay fighter: Sculpter's cut and ISS 2000 have some potential, but nothing really is rare for N64, and despite being a nintendo system, the N64 didn't have the install base that the Nes and SNES had. Also any of the games that would be collected because they were good, were produced in huge numbers. Combine that with virtual console release and I don't see enough demand to drive high prices with n64.
5)PS1 has not taken off, it has declined. Games like Valkyrie profile(which actually had a lower print run)have gone down in value. It used to bring close to $200 complete and can be had now around $100-$125. Sukoden 2 another good example. Overall for a system that has 1200+ games, very few can hold a $100 price tag. Now, it does have potential to rebound and become a collectible system, but it may be a few years till the kids who grew up with the system get nostalgic and have some money to drive the market, but digital download may also play a roll here.
6) Game companies may not give you a choice. If they decide to go digital download only, that's it. You can choose not to play games, and I'm sure many gamers will say that. If it does come to this, I doubt gamers will give up gaming completely if they are still good games being made. they will give in because they want to play games. CD's have been killed by piracy and itunes. DVD's and Blu-rays same thing. Companies have noticed that people are willing to have downloads and they're looking a ways to make that benefit them as oppose to hurt them.
Now to address some of your points again:
2) No kidding, NES is due for a deflation, and it's already occuring. I've been preaching this since I registered, but I was shrugged as a new collector who knew nothing. I mean just look at the site, how many new big collectors have we seen recently? Aaronshea, MRN are the only names that comes to mind, although I'm sure there are some lurkers out there as well. The pace of new collectors coming into the market has slowed a lot, while people like Ant / Langenfield / Justabum / etc. are leaving the market. When people come out faster than they come in, prices will fall. I'm not here to fear-monger about what will happen, but like you said I do expect a deflation of some sorts. Especially considering the downturn in the economy as well.
6) If you are scared of digital downloading ruining the market, then what are your thoughts on emulation? I can get any NES / SNES / N64 / etc game I want, and anyone with any google skills whatsoever can do the same exact thing. You say piracy killed CDs and DVDs, why has emulation not killed video games? The answer is that it should have, but it didn't. The fact that it didn't should show that people will always care about consoles and actual hardware rather than being able to have a bunch of computer files that allows them to play games. Another argument against digital download only is that console sales / hardware make up a huge portion of a company's profits. Only recently did Xbox and Sony get the "genius" ideas of making a system that actually costs more money to make than it's selling price, which is directly related to why Nintendo has destroyed the market with the Wii. Of course, over time, the cost of making a system comes down so they eventually get to a break-even or even profitability point, but that's still a bad business approach to say the least.
As far as video games, I think they will for the most part keep their collectibility. Some are going to fluctuate but most will stay around the same. Anyone have any ideas why SE and mega man x3 dropped and why earthbound has shot up? The SE was sudden and may be because of the economy. But x3 dropped uber fast. And earthbound has shot up over the past couple of years. But why?
Seth - I just assummed so because he tried to sell his Caltron CIB for $850 and caved to $700 pretty quick. He also tried to sell his CIB Panesians for like $3.4k combined, and reduced to $3k pretty quick. I think BellaBlack also bought his CIB Bubble Bobble 2 (price unknown), so those seem to be the acts of someone selling off, or at least changing his collection goals. I honestly have no idea what he's doing.
To Joe: you are dead on with the sports cards. As I've said before the "insert" cards and grading KILLED sports cards PERIOD. Never being able to collect all the cards of your favorite player is death nell. Also towards the end of collecting I noticed what you were saying all the $1 each bins were full of crappy inserts that were out of favor as last years inserts that were already worth nothing. Not to mention all the confusing parallel sets... is this an atomic refractor or a regular refractor or a limited auto refractor or or or or...??????????
SmokinJoe - I haven't noticed a price drop on MMX3, but I can't say I've actively been watching it either. I'd say there has been a small price drop across the board in NES Mega Man CIBs, because I was trying to get them 8-9 months ago and I was hard pressed to find MM1 or MM5 CIB for under $100. Took a lot of patience but I finally got em. I think Mega Man's were just over-inflated in general due to the release of Mega Man 9, both the game and the Press Kit. It bought a lot of attention back to the series. I think Mega Man prices will definitely go up in the long haul, but right now they are more or less stabilizing from that MM9 spike.
Seth - I just assummed so because he tried to sell his Caltron CIB for $850 and caved to $700 pretty quick. He also tried to sell his CIB Panesians for like $3.4k combined, and reduced to $3k pretty quick. I think BellaBlack also bought his CIB Bubble Bobble 2 (price unknown), so those seem to be the acts of someone selling off, or at least changing his collection goals. I honestly have no idea what he's doing.
Nah, about 3 years ago, you could easily get $100 for a loose x3. I did it several times. You could even get about $50 for an x2. They used to be much more valuable but its nothing to snag an x3 for $35 now.
Langenfeld posted and he's told me that he's gone all sealed now on NES or as sealed as he can get. This, much to Bronty's delite I'm sure, seems to be the biggest change I've seen lately on NES. The cart guys are still cart guys and some slowly convert to CIB. However SOOOOOOO many of the CIB guys are now going Sealed. I myself have about 400 of my NES collection "upgraded" to sealed at the present time as well. I never plan to collect only sealed, but stuff that isn't an inside the box variant only type thing on games I won't ever play I will certainly pick up sealed if they are priced right. It's just been interesting to me to see how many people are almost skipping past CIB to sealed nowadays. I don't think I could ever do this unless I collected a cart/book only copy as well as sealed copy for everything cause there are too many titles I like to play.
To Joe: you are dead on with the sports cards. As I've said before the "insert" cards and grading KILLED sports cards PERIOD. Never being able to collect all the cards of your favorite player is death nell. Also towards the end of collecting I noticed what you were saying all the $1 each bins were full of crappy inserts that were out of favor as last years inserts that were already worth nothing. Not to mention all the confusing parallel sets... is this an atomic refractor or a regular refractor or a limited auto refractor or or or or...??????????
Yeah, its a shame too. i remember when it was fun to pull a refractor or a numbered insert but now you can pull a jersey card and the pack costs more than what the jersey is worth. I sold out a good portion of my collection but there were a few bat card sets I kept because I busted my A tracking them down. Actually there are 2 cards I would still buy if I could find them but one of them I have only seen once and the other I would be shocked if it ever surfaces. I also kept my babe ruth bat card because it is probably the one card that will maintain its value.
Udisi - I think you are confusing collectibility with value. Call me crazy, but I think most people collect something because they like it, not because they want to make boo-koo bucks by selling it. I think the latter is merely a side effect of the whole collecting process. If you look at the forum members with ridiculously large collections, many of them have been around for several years and bought their collections when everything was cheap. Many have admitted that they cannot believe how high the prices have gone. If I can get an entire N64 CIB library without paying more than $100 for a game, GREAT!!! If they never go up in value, GREAT!! I'd be collecting them cause I want them...
Now to address some of your points again:
2) No kidding, NES is due for a deflation, and it's already occuring. I've been preaching this since I registered, but I was shrugged as a new collector who knew nothing. I mean just look at the site, how many new big collectors have we seen recently? Aaronshea, MRN are the only names that comes to mind, although I'm sure there are some lurkers out there as well. The pace of new collectors coming into the market has slowed a lot, while people like Ant / Langenfield / Justabum / etc. are leaving the market. When people come out faster than they come in, prices will fall. I'm not here to fear-monger about what will happen, but like you said I do expect a deflation of some sorts. Especially considering the downturn in the economy as well.
6) If you are scared of digital downloading ruining the market, then what are your thoughts on emulation? I can get any NES / SNES / N64 / etc game I want, and anyone with any google skills whatsoever can do the same exact thing. You say piracy killed CDs and DVDs, why has emulation not killed video games? The answer is that it should have, but it didn't. The fact that it didn't should show that people will always care about consoles and actual hardware rather than being able to have a bunch of computer files that allows them to play games. Another argument against digital download only is that console sales / hardware make up a huge portion of a company's profits. Only recently did Xbox and Sony get the "genius" ideas of making a system that actually costs more money to make than it's selling price, which is directly related to why Nintendo has destroyed the market with the Wii. Of course, over time, the cost of making a system comes down so they eventually get to a break-even or even profitability point, but that's still a bad business approach to say the least.
Yes, many people here collect because they love games and would do so whatever value does. The same can be said of those who still collect for Genesis and any other console, but collectability as a whole embodies more than those wh just love gaming. My responses are to the original poster's idea. "do we have a responsibility to keep game collecting from tanking" My answer is essentially we don't have much control over it. If you wanna say that value has nothing to do with collecting, then Baseball cards and comic books are just as much alive today as they were in the past. those who still love them still buy them and trade them and "collect" them.
Value pulled a lot of collectors into the market and if value "crashes" many collectors will leave, just as they did baseball cards and comic books. The tried and true gamers will remain, but collectability will crash.
I'm personally not a fan of emulation. As much as I don't like being sold a bunch of crap games, I feel most of emulation leads to piracy which in turns hurts developers , which hurts the gamer in the long run. I'm probably stronger in this view because I personally perfer playing games on their actual hardware. Just a personal preference. I don't think emulation has hurt "Classic" systems to badly because I think the majority of classic gamers like original hardware too.They don't want to play the game on a computer . No one had emulators when the SNES was still a retail system. I think this trend is changing, and today's generation has grow up with emulation and digital distribution. They will be more concerned of just playing the game rather than the medium it's ditributed through. I think that trend is what will hurt collectability of PS2-current gen games. you'll be able to download that ps2 classic straight to your ps4, and if the trend continues the way it is, you'll be downloading your new ps4 game on your ps4 too.
Also selling systems for a loss is not a NEW idea, sony has always lost money on making/selling systems. same with xbox, 3do, etc. they usually get close to break even or make profit later in the system's lifespan, as parts get cheaper and hardware revisions are made. Nintendo has historically always MADE money on each system they make. The N64 was a popularity failure, but was quite profitable for nintendo commerically.
I'm gonna throw this out there because I spent every f'n penny I had on baseball cards up until I was 22. They started making the "rare" and "high priced" stuff common as sweat on my nuts. Back in the day, you could pull a Rey Ordonez jersey fron 1997 UD and it was $200. Now, you can get a pujols jersey and it is $15. They mass produced every card that people were wanting so now it just isn't fun to collect anymore. On top of that, card that are post 1985 are basically worthless other than the "hot rookies" out right now. And they will drop because the demand is so high once they first come out. I could go on about this forever because I lost so much money. Thank God the companies did mass produce that crap or I probably would still be collecting.
Totally agree with the baseball card's demise. I collected hockey cards from when I was 5 to almost 18 or so. These are the things that really killed it for me. My goal was to get every Mario Lemieux card and variation. I even tried to keep up when they were making ##/66 cards and such. But, things got crazy. Too many variations. Too many ##/10, ##/1, etc. cards were being produced. Too many game jerseys, game used sticks, game used boards (seriously?), signitures, etc.. Made it absoluetly impossible to get every card of his. So, I went to Pokemon cards... but, that's another story.
I agree with most of the other statments about NES collecting in this thread as well. Though, I should say, the number of people on this site has been growing almost exponentially (not quite, but increasing at a rapid rate). Seems to me, that there are still quite a few people getting into the scene (even if they aren't out there to buy every rare game in site).
I've personally considered jumping to the sealed market for NES games, but there are just too many games are at inaccessible prices (or just plain don't exist other than in Bronty's hands
As for our responsibility, I think I'm with udisi here. We have little to no control over how the market reacts. If next week, Silent Service carts are worth $600, everyone here will be selling the 50 copies they own, the market on them will tank, and it's back to business as usual.
This also seems like a pretty bad time to examine the sales numbers of games. The economy is still recovering so I think it will be some time untill we get some stable values again.
And I like what nesguy said
"I also like trying out games I've never played before"
this is pretty much the whole reason I collect, to play through all these games that are so good that I have never played through. Like Crystalis or Illusion of Gaia.
When im old and retired I will still be collecting cause you know what i'll be doing "relaxing and playing some old video games"..
I don't think video game collecting it self will ever die down, personally I don't think NES collecting will die either. Think about it. If Mario is still around in 25 years people are still going to want to put in there 2 cents and play Super Mario Bros. 1, 2 or 3. And people are always going to want to play good games, that never got reproduced.
Everything dies down eventually, it's just a question as to the extent. The same way that music has gone almost totally digital, so will gaming. The mentality and desire to actually own physical software will decrease to the point that only the hardcore will be retaining their stuff to the extent that they are now. If people want to play Super Mario 1-3, they'll simply play on their PC or download it on their Super Wii Dolphin 64, or whatever system Nintendo has out in 2030. Since we grew up with the system, we care a lot about the physical hardware. Each subsequent generation will care less and less.
The reason for the increase in prices right now is from the glut of casual gamers/collectors, including those that discovered retro games via the Wii. They're the last collectors into the market, and they'll be the first ones that will leave it. But collecting will stay popular with the few and the proud no matter what, and it will probably return to the the way it was before the retro gaming fad went into full effect.
So I pose my question to you guys..
The question I as people is: " If all the retro games prices tanked to .50 each regardless of title would you still try to collect them?" I say yes, cause I just like collecting things. They give me a personal satisfaction seeing them on my shelf in my game room. Would I like them to retain their value? I sure do, but in the end it wouldn't matter. I doubt I would sell them as I saw the value drop. Stupid? Of course. But I have too many memories trading and hunting them down. I know I could sell them and wait and re-buy them, but it wouldn't be the same copy.
So I pose my question to you guys..
Great post, Mason. I started collecting when these games were mostly worthless, and I'll be there when they're worth dirt again.
My satisfaction has mostly been from the hunt itself. Going to hundreds of flea markets/garage sales and finding these pieces of plastic is a very enjoyable aspect to me, hence why I do not like dealing through ebay unless necessary. It's the discovery that makes it worth it.
The question I as people is: " If all the retro games prices tanked to .50 each regardless of title would you still try to collect them?" I say yes, cause I just like collecting things. They give me a personal satisfaction seeing them on my shelf in my game room. Would I like them to retain their value? I sure do, but in the end it wouldn't matter. I doubt I would sell them as I saw the value drop. Stupid? Of course. But I have too many memories trading and hunting them down. I know I could sell them and wait and re-buy them, but it wouldn't be the same copy.
So I pose my question to you guys..
Great post, Mason. I started collecting when these games were mostly worthless, and I'll be there when they're worth dirt again.
My satisfaction has mostly been from the hunt itself. Going to hundreds of flea markets/garage sales and finding these pieces of plastic is a very enjoyable aspect to me, hence why I do not like dealing through ebay unless necessary. It's the discovery that makes it worth it.
I agree. The hunt is what is so fun about them. Its probably the reason I still hunt even though I don't collect. Its a blast to go out and find a super rare game for crackhead prices. When I was collecting, I hunted in the wild until about the last 50 games I needed. Then I got raped on ebay. But sometimes you gotta do what you gotta do. And back when I was finishing off the set, I already had BB2 and F2 which I bought before both shot up. I got them for about $70 each. This was the time when SE was selling for $600 loose and Bronty snagged his sealed one for $3000+. I had to pay like $25 for uncharted waters and Faria each. It got annoying but you just don't see those lying around.
I personally think this question shows what kind of collectors are out there. If you answer yes to collecting them when they are worthless, you are a fan of the product and don't care what its worth is. If you answer no, you are more a fan of the value. The product doesn't really matter. You could switch to another collectible.
However, every time this debate comes up, I remember how BuyAtari always says that when NES/SNES/whatever was being released, he was collecting Atari. And he thought that there was 'no way' these new NES games would ever be collectible.
I do think it's safe to say that there won't be any SE comparable games on future platforms, but who really knows. $500+ games though? Sure why not.