Rarity from a Print Run Standpoint
Just as a curiosity, since the topic of "rare" games comes up often on here, if you could somehow know all the print runs for all the games on a console, what would be the threshold amount for you to consider a game rare?
Obviously, rarity doesn't always equal a high price for a game but if you knew there were 50,000 copies released in the US of Game A, 20,000 copies released of Game B, and 10,000 of Game C, are all three "rare", only two of the three, one, or none?
Obviously, rarity doesn't always equal a high price for a game but if you knew there were 50,000 copies released in the US of Game A, 20,000 copies released of Game B, and 10,000 of Game C, are all three "rare", only two of the three, one, or none?
Comments
Beyond that there are things like nfr, variants and misprints that some would consider rare even though 'the game' might have had a rather large print run.
Past that of course there are limited editions which perhaps have artificial scarcity, limited run games types of business models, and even on demand printing/runs whose scarcity may change over time. And speaking of rarity changing there are a number of games that have had significantly late reprints (GameStop?) which might change rarity dramatically after a period of stability.
I guess my answer is: not sure.
Market availability defines rarity. Take the rarest NES game other than SE and determine a print run, 10,000? 50,000? 100,000? That game is still probably less available than some new "limited" homebrew where only 100 copies were made. The recent homebrew will circulate a lot while new market copies of the rarest NES game may be much more spread out. No matter how many were printed long ago, no where near that many are in circulation today.
Sounds like you are describing the difference between pure scarcity vs. marginal supply.
We don't have good sales data from most games of the 80s and 90s so basing it off data that doesn't exist would be hard. To me, something rare requires at least some effort to seek out. If you can throw money at Ebay any given day, it's probably not a rare game.
Yeah what little data we have comes from
- nintendo's minimum order quantity, which I think Howard Philips said was 10,000 ? Its in one of his posts.
- the numbering on Myriads
- the numbering on NWCs.
- million seller variants.
that's about it I think
We don't have good sales data from most games of the 80s and 90s so basing it off data that doesn't exist would be hard. To me, something rare requires at least some effort to seek out. If you can throw money at Ebay any given day, it's probably not a rare game.
Yeah what little data we have comes from
- nintendo's minimum order quantity, which I think Howard Philips said was 10,000 ? Its in one of his posts.
- the numbering on Myriads
- the numbering on NWCs.
- million seller variants.
that's about it I think
The other thing that to me one can look at is comic books from the same time period with known, small, print runs.
For example TMNT 1 (1984) @3250 copies, Cerebus 1 (1977) @1600 copies, Albedo 2 (1986?) 2,000 copies, Spiderman 1 platinum 10,000 copies (1990?), and just compare the market availability of those items, since they have known scarcity numbers, with the market availability of certain games as a reasonability check on guesses.
For example on the comic boards the TMNT 1 owner's club has maybe 75 people in it? On these boards there are what, 50ish SE known owners? 50/75 x 3250 = 2167 as one rough and dirty guess of the Stadium Events that might be in circulation. Something like Little Samson I'd guess is more like 20,000 (and not lower than 10,000 if Howard's info was correct and still valid as of 1992).
Anyways, there is no denying that Myriad is by far the rarest retail NES title that came out during the system's lifetime. Scarcer than SE for sure, and given the numbering is said to go to 888, lines up pretty good with my low 2000's guess for SE as myriad was always 2-3x rarer IMO. Not the most valuable, but definitely the rarest.
Most of the expensive Games for NES, SNES (most systems actually) can be found on eBay on any given day. I never thought that could be considered rare. Yet people throw hundreds of dollars at them.
rare, relative to the rest of the set, is usually what people are talking about as far as I know
You cant compare rarity of a game saying its not rare because this over here where there are only 25 is actually rare. Yes a game you can find on ebay us rare. Thats why it costs a fortune relative to other games in the set.
Its all relative. Gets on my nerves reading" derp no retail game is rare".
Rare is defined as still having a sufficient amount of myoglobin left in the meat, leaving the center of the meat with a redish or pinkish tint.
This site doesn't deserve you
Most of the expensive Games for NES, SNES (most systems actually) can be found on eBay on any given day. I never thought that could be considered rare. Yet people throw hundreds of dollars at them.
rare, relative to the rest of the set, is usually what people are talking about as far as I know
True, makes sense when put that way
Gerber 8 is no more than 20 known copies
Gerber 9 is no more than 10 known copies
Gerber 10 is 5 or fewer known copies.
You have to go over to Atari collecting to use anything close to this sort of scale.
As much as collectors would like to think Nintendo games are rare they really aren't when compared to other hobbies.
Rarity in comic books is usually measured using a scale developed by Ernst Gerber and published in his Photo-Journal Guide To Comics volumes.
Gerber's scale is as follows:
(1) Very Common (new comics)
(2) Common (80's books)
(3) More Than Average (70's, some 60's)
(4) Average Scarcity (1,000-2,000 existing copies)
(5) Less Than Average (200-1,000 existing copies)
(6) Uncommon (50-200 existing copies)
(7) Scarce (21-50 known copies)
(8) Rare (11-20 known copies)
(9) Very Rare (6-10 known copies)
(10) Unique (less than 5 known copies)
(11) Nonexistent (but known to have been printed)
Comics has what is called the Gerber scale for the super rare.
Gerber 8 is no more than 20 known copies
Gerber 9 is no more than 10 known copies
Gerber 10 is 5 or fewer known copies.
You have to go over to Atari collecting to use anything close to this sort of scale.
As much as collectors would like to think Nintendo games are rare they really aren't when compared to other hobbies.
I really wanted to make a joke about baby food, but this is super interesting. Is there any "production" game from nintendo that would even be a Gerber 8 or higher? I guess the NWC gold is a Gerber 7. The only other thing I can think of outside of the Atari carts are Kizuna Encounter and NBA Elite 11. Also, I'm sure fcgamer could chime in with some Chinese bootlegs, but not as many collectors are into those.
Comics has what is called the Gerber scale for the super rare.
Gerber 8 is no more than 20 known copies
Gerber 9 is no more than 10 known copies
Gerber 10 is 5 or fewer known copies.
You have to go over to Atari collecting to use anything close to this sort of scale.
As much as collectors would like to think Nintendo games are rare they really aren't when compared to other hobbies.
I really wanted to make a joke about baby food, but this is super interesting. Is there any "production" game from nintendo that would even be a Gerber 8 or higher? I guess the NWC gold is a Gerber 7. The only other thing I can think of outside of the Atari carts are Kizuna Encounter and NBA Elite 11. Also, I'm sure fcgamer could chime in with some Chinese bootlegs, but not as many collectors are into those.
If you are only concerned with unique US licensed titles that were released and sold at retail during the lifespan of the system then no.
There are some hard to find variants and unlicensed oddities.
Comics has what is called the Gerber scale for the super rare.
Gerber 8 is no more than 20 known copies
Gerber 9 is no more than 10 known copies
Gerber 10 is 5 or fewer known copies.
You have to go over to Atari collecting to use anything close to this sort of scale.
As much as collectors would like to think Nintendo games are rare they really aren't when compared to other hobbies.
There are plenty of Nintendo items thare would be Gerber 10, they just aren't retail carts. It would have to be specific variants, high end sealed, rare promo merchandise, etc.
And rare is relative, the holy grail of all baseball cards, the Wagner T206 shows as 31 graded copies on the PSA website. Doesn't include other graded brands (SGC, etc.), but may include resubs (i.e. someone who had a PSA11 and resubbed hoping for PSA 2 would show up as 2 of 31 copies). Even with the regrades, it's going to be above 5 confirmed.
Comics has what is called the Gerber scale for the super rare.
Gerber 8 is no more than 20 known copies
Gerber 9 is no more than 10 known copies
Gerber 10 is 5 or fewer known copies.
You have to go over to Atari collecting to use anything close to this sort of scale.
As much as collectors would like to think Nintendo games are rare they really aren't when compared to other hobbies.
There are plenty of Nintendo items thare would be Gerber 10, they just aren't retail carts. It would have to be specific variants, high end sealed, rare promo merchandise, etc.
And rare is relative, the holy grail of all baseball cards, the Wagner T206 shows as 31 graded copies on the PSA website. Doesn't include other graded brands (SGC, etc.), but may include resubs (i.e. someone who had a PSA11 and resubbed hoping for PSA 2 would show up as 2 of 31 copies). Even with the regrades, it's going to be above 5 confirmed.
I think we need to disregard things like sealed games here. Just about every (US) game started out as a sealed game, so from the orginal author's point of view, in regards to print runs and rarities, sealed just doesn't have anything to do with it. Now of course it could be assumed that games with smaller print runs would also have fewer sealed copies remaining. Also, technically sealed was retail. I guess the real question would be if the Gerber scale takes into account condition, or do all Stadium Events, for example (sealed or otherwise) equally count?
But if I was to chuck a number for actual rarity, then I'd say anything below 500 copies would be rare (~ 5 copies available per country worldwide). Serious rare grails below 100 copies (~ 1 copy available per country worldwide). "Holy grails" below 10 copies (~ 1 copy per continent).
Comics has what is called the Gerber scale for the super rare.
Gerber 8 is no more than 20 known copies
Gerber 9 is no more than 10 known copies
Gerber 10 is 5 or fewer known copies.
You have to go over to Atari collecting to use anything close to this sort of scale.
As much as collectors would like to think Nintendo games are rare they really aren't when compared to other hobbies.
There are plenty of Nintendo items thare would be Gerber 10, they just aren't retail carts. It would have to be specific variants, high end sealed, rare promo merchandise, etc.
And rare is relative, the holy grail of all baseball cards, the Wagner T206 shows as 31 graded copies on the PSA website. Doesn't include other graded brands (SGC, etc.), but may include resubs (i.e. someone who had a PSA11 and resubbed hoping for PSA 2 would show up as 2 of 31 copies). Even with the regrades, it's going to be above 5 confirmed.
I think we need to disregard things like sealed games here. Just about every (US) game started out as a sealed game, so from the orginal author's point of view, in regards to print runs and rarities, sealed just doesn't have anything to do with it. Now of course it could be assumed that games with smaller print runs would also have fewer sealed copies remaining. Also, technically sealed was retail. I guess the real question would be if the Gerber scale takes into account condition, or do all Stadium Events, for example (sealed or otherwise) equally count?
Well, when he mentions the Gerber scale as having "X or fewer known copies", I assume they are talking about confirmed copies known in collector's hands. Not number of copies produced because no manufacturing company is going to start a manufacturing line for less than 5 items.
Comics has what is called the Gerber scale for the super rare.
Gerber 8 is no more than 20 known copies
Gerber 9 is no more than 10 known copies
Gerber 10 is 5 or fewer known copies.
You have to go over to Atari collecting to use anything close to this sort of scale.
As much as collectors would like to think Nintendo games are rare they really aren't when compared to other hobbies.
There are plenty of Nintendo items thare would be Gerber 10, they just aren't retail carts. It would have to be specific variants, high end sealed, rare promo merchandise, etc.
And rare is relative, the holy grail of all baseball cards, the Wagner T206 shows as 31 graded copies on the PSA website. Doesn't include other graded brands (SGC, etc.), but may include resubs (i.e. someone who had a PSA11 and resubbed hoping for PSA 2 would show up as 2 of 31 copies). Even with the regrades, it's going to be above 5 confirmed.
I think we need to disregard things like sealed games here. Just about every (US) game started out as a sealed game, so from the orginal author's point of view, in regards to print runs and rarities, sealed just doesn't have anything to do with it. Now of course it could be assumed that games with smaller print runs would also have fewer sealed copies remaining. Also, technically sealed was retail. I guess the real question would be if the Gerber scale takes into account condition, or do all Stadium Events, for example (sealed or otherwise) equally count?
Well, when he mentions the Gerber scale as having "X or fewer known copies", I assume they are talking about confirmed copies known in collector's hands. Not number of copies produced because no manufacturing company is going to start a manufacturing line for less than 5 items.
With most games print runs aren't very important. What is important is how many survived today. Now there were some Atari games produced in very limited numbers. Red Sea Crossing etc were Gerber 9 or Gerber 10 games right out of the gate. With modern games where the vast majority of the print run is suspected to be surviving the print run is also important.
While the Wally Bear in the AGCI case is (supposed to be) an earlier build, I have no idea the reason so many ignore the Chiller published by Share Data, complete with different label and everything. It would be on the list as a unique release, equal to Caltron vs Myriad, if I were making the list.
Not here to debate Wally Bear but that Wally Bear in the picture does not have an earlier build. Someone else owns a WallyBear prototype with no label that has an early build.
Comics has what is called the Gerber scale for the super rare.
Gerber 8 is no more than 20 known copies
Gerber 9 is no more than 10 known copies
Gerber 10 is 5 or fewer known copies.
You have to go over to Atari collecting to use anything close to this sort of scale.
As much as collectors would like to think Nintendo games are rare they really aren't when compared to other hobbies.
There are plenty of Nintendo items thare would be Gerber 10, they just aren't retail carts. It would have to be specific variants, high end sealed, rare promo merchandise, etc.
And rare is relative, the holy grail of all baseball cards, the Wagner T206 shows as 31 graded copies on the PSA website. Doesn't include other graded brands (SGC, etc.), but may include resubs (i.e. someone who had a PSA11 and resubbed hoping for PSA 2 would show up as 2 of 31 copies). Even with the regrades, it's going to be above 5 confirmed.
I think we need to disregard things like sealed games here. Just about every (US) game started out as a sealed game, so from the orginal author's point of view, in regards to print runs and rarities, sealed just doesn't have anything to do with it. Now of course it could be assumed that games with smaller print runs would also have fewer sealed copies remaining. Also, technically sealed was retail. I guess the real question would be if the Gerber scale takes into account condition, or do all Stadium Events, for example (sealed or otherwise) equally count?
Well, when he mentions the Gerber scale as having "X or fewer known copies", I assume they are talking about confirmed copies known in collector's hands. Not number of copies produced because no manufacturing company is going to start a manufacturing line for less than 5 items.
Right, I totally agree. But considering virtually all (US) Nintendo games started out sealed, and the fact that (unless I am missing something) the Gerber scale marks the number of known copies in collectors' hands, a game sealed would count equally as a game trashed to hell and back.
Comics has what is called the Gerber scale for the super rare.
Gerber 8 is no more than 20 known copies
Gerber 9 is no more than 10 known copies
Gerber 10 is 5 or fewer known copies.
You have to go over to Atari collecting to use anything close to this sort of scale.
As much as collectors would like to think Nintendo games are rare they really aren't when compared to other hobbies.
There are plenty of Nintendo items thare would be Gerber 10, they just aren't retail carts. It would have to be specific variants, high end sealed, rare promo merchandise, etc.
And rare is relative, the holy grail of all baseball cards, the Wagner T206 shows as 31 graded copies on the PSA website. Doesn't include other graded brands (SGC, etc.), but may include resubs (i.e. someone who had a PSA11 and resubbed hoping for PSA 2 would show up as 2 of 31 copies). Even with the regrades, it's going to be above 5 confirmed.
I think we need to disregard things like sealed games here. Just about every (US) game started out as a sealed game, so from the orginal author's point of view, in regards to print runs and rarities, sealed just doesn't have anything to do with it. Now of course it could be assumed that games with smaller print runs would also have fewer sealed copies remaining. Also, technically sealed was retail. I guess the real question would be if the Gerber scale takes into account condition, or do all Stadium Events, for example (sealed or otherwise) equally count?
Well, when he mentions the Gerber scale as having "X or fewer known copies", I assume they are talking about confirmed copies known in collector's hands. Not number of copies produced because no manufacturing company is going to start a manufacturing line for less than 5 items.
With most games print runs aren't very important. What is important is how many survived today. Now there were some Atari games produced in very limited numbers. Red Sea Crossing etc were Gerber 9 or Gerber 10 games right out of the gate. With modern games where the vast majority of the print run is suspected to be surviving the print run is also important.
While the Wally Bear in the AGCI case is (supposed to be) an earlier build, I have no idea the reason so many ignore the Chiller published by Share Data, complete with different label and everything. It would be on the list as a unique release, equal to Caltron vs Myriad, if I were making the list.
Not here to debate Wally Bear but that Wally Bear in the picture does not have an earlier build. Someone else owns a WallyBear prototype with no label that has an early build.
So that Wally Bear of yours is retail, no different from the AVE release? I don't like the fact that the label doesn't exactly fit the cart, but if it is retail code, it would be on my list for sure as well.
Comics has what is called the Gerber scale for the super rare.
Gerber 8 is no more than 20 known copies
Gerber 9 is no more than 10 known copies
Gerber 10 is 5 or fewer known copies.
You have to go over to Atari collecting to use anything close to this sort of scale.
As much as collectors would like to think Nintendo games are rare they really aren't when compared to other hobbies.
Everyone knows that already though. When using the term rare its relative to the set of games. It doesnt matter what other hobbies deem is rare or not. Its comparing things that make no sense to compare. Saying well my dino peak isnt rare because 1 spiderman comic exists or 1 atari cartridge exists doesnt make any sense st all
Comics has what is called the Gerber scale for the super rare.
Gerber 8 is no more than 20 known copies
Gerber 9 is no more than 10 known copies
Gerber 10 is 5 or fewer known copies.
You have to go over to Atari collecting to use anything close to this sort of scale.
As much as collectors would like to think Nintendo games are rare they really aren't when compared to other hobbies.
Everyone knows that already though. When using the term rare its relative to the set of games. It doesnt matter what other hobbies deem is rare or not. Its comparing things that make no sense to compare. Saying well my dino peak isnt rare because 1 spiderman comic exists or 1 atari cartridge exists doesnt make any sense st all
But saying, "Wow, Little Samson is so rare" when 20000 copies exist, comared to one known South African version Soccer, is rediculous too. Print numbers to matter a lot, and I think what has been confirmed to exist should be implemented into a rarity scale. Rarity does not equate to value, but half the stuff that is passed off as rare on here is uncommon at best.
Comics has what is called the Gerber scale for the super rare.
Gerber 8 is no more than 20 known copies
Gerber 9 is no more than 10 known copies
Gerber 10 is 5 or fewer known copies.
You have to go over to Atari collecting to use anything close to this sort of scale.
As much as collectors would like to think Nintendo games are rare they really aren't when compared to other hobbies.
I really wanted to make a joke about baby food, but this is super interesting. Is there any "production" game from nintendo that would even be a Gerber 8 or higher? I guess the NWC gold is a Gerber 7. The only other thing I can think of outside of the Atari carts are Kizuna Encounter and NBA Elite 11. Also, I'm sure fcgamer could chime in with some Chinese bootlegs, but not as many collectors are into those.
If you are only concerned with unique US licensed titles that were released and sold at retail during the lifespan of the system then no.
There are some hard to find variants and unlicensed oddities.
Man that Share Data Chiller is wicked!