Sixth Mass Extinction
https://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/data-mine/2015/06/19/75-percent-of-animal-species-to-be-wiped-out-in-sixth-mass-extinction
“It’s clear that we are going to lose a lot of things, but it’s also clear that we have the ability to ensure that many of our systems will be different but will continue to have ecological functionality and continue to support many of these species.”
I spoke with Paul Ehrlich about this some years ago, and his honest opinion is that it is "doubtful" if we can fix the problem, let alone will. Let's face it, humans for the most part have the attitude of "Not In My Backyard" and apart from that, don't give a damn. Sad, although I'd like to think there's a way to fix the problem, like Ehrlich, I just don't see a solution...
Comments
We can't even project the weather 5 days in advance so I would take long term studies with a grain of salt. I'd be curious to read the assumptions of the study as wel
Your "argument" is what science deniers, often those who don't believe in climate change, like to point as "evidence" even though it is not evidence nor even logical but rather an appeal to emotion. First off, climate, weather, and of course extinction, are completely separate events. The weather is turbulent, but climate change is not. Climate change slowly happens over years, and is far easier to accurately predict than something so specific as localized weather. Here, you can learn from Neil deGrasse Tyson
Science and scientific outcomes continuously change as more data is absorbed. Naturally, years from now predictions will be modified. However, that does not mean the predictions for extinction are wrong. They are actually on the conservative side, which means the scientists believe in the "best case" scenario, 75% of species are at serious risk and likely will go extinct. Of course, if humans actually try to mitiage this disaster, then that value can (hopefully) be lessened. However, if things keep on track, it is likely that most species on this planet will be extinct thanks to humans.
As for the entire report, it's 1500 pages and will be published later this year. For now, see here:
https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/blog/2019/05/nature-decline-unprecedented-report/
Anyway you look at the science it's pretty bleak. I haven't given up hope yet, but I'm skeptical what and if anything will be done. Hopefully the report will list some concrete steps that can be taken to help protect life.
that's why the Trump Space Force needs to start colonizing Mars.
Thanks for the laugh.
Paul Ehrlich aka the guy whose every prediction has been massively wrong?
He admits that some of his predictions have not occurred, but so what? Other scientists have said part of his "erroneous predictions" may in fact be due to his warnings which have encouraged governments to change their policies. As a scientist, one of the things I was always told is "you will be wrong". You look at the facts, and draw conclusions based upon the limited data you have. You will never be 100% correct. It's "funny" (not really) but when scientists such as Ehrlich are wrong, people love to say "ho ho ho, what a buffoon! it was obvious he was wrong!" but when someone like Ehrlich is right, they say "Well yeah. Why didn't anyone listen to him?!"
While I agree it's changing now, how do we know this isn't a natural change in the climate?
I read reports CO2 is higher now than anytime in the last 3 Millions years, well what was happening 3 million years ago to impact the CO2 levels and ultimately the climate back then?
We keep hearing about CO2 being bad, but then I read studies that show the higher CO2 levels are helping many plants and forests.
I mean didn't Al Gore say 20 something years ago we had less than 10 years before the ice caps would melt?
Ice is the Arctic is plentiful...
I'm not here to say I believe this is true or not true.
I question how we can definitively say it's man made.
The climate has been changing since the earth formed BILLIONS of years ago.
While I agree it's changing now, how do we know this isn't a natural change in the climate?
I read reports CO2 is higher now than anytime in the last 3 Millions years, well what was happening 3 million years ago to impact the CO2 levels and ultimately the climate back then?
We keep hearing about CO2 being bad, but then I read studies that show the higher CO2 levels are helping many plants and forests.
I mean didn't Al Gore say 20 something years ago we had less than 10 years before the ice caps would melt?
Ice is the Arctic is plentiful...
I'm not here to say I believe this is true or not true.
I question how we can definitively say it's man made.
You are right. Earth's climate changes. But you know what, it changes SLOWLY... at least, until now. Human induced climate change is (in comparison to natural climate change) rapidly changing our temperatures. Here is a slightly silly, but actually very good video on WHY climate change is real
and here is a video on why people do not believe in climate change
Here's the thing. Do you trust your doctor? If you go to your doctor, and he/she says "oh, I'm afraid it's cancer" you would be shocked and likely go to get a second opinion. Now, imagine that you go to 100 doctors and let's say 99 of them say "yes, I'm afraid it's definitely cancer". Would you then say, "well I don't know. So many things can look like cancer. I mean, I know you did all these tests and anlysis, but I'm still skeptical...." -- because that is exactly what people are doing with climate change. And, if you don't believe all the scientists, well I don't see why you would believe your doctor, doctors in general, or anyone.
I just don't see a solution...
Unfortunately, the best solution to many of the planet's ills is probably some sort of mass terrorist act or biological attack against ourselves to wipe out a significant amount of the human population. Not that I'm advocating that or anything.
How many centuries before we're capable of colonizing another planet, assuming one is found? I assume we're screwed.
Ice is the Arctic is plentiful...
Arctic ice is declining at a rate of 12.8% per decade on average.
https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/arctic-sea-ice/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/energy-environment/2018/12/11/arctic-is-even-worse-shape-than-you-realize/?utm_term=.53a4cdcb01ae
I just don't see a solution...
Unfortunately, the best solution to many of the planet's ills is probably some sort of mass terrorist act or biological attack against ourselves to wipe out a significant amount of the human population. Not that I'm advocating that or anything.
*SNAP*
(haven't seen the new one yet, but I read they don't really consider the complete and utter economic collapse that would come from 50% of people vanishing instantly)
Even if Team Science somehow wins, makes mass reductions to carbon emissions, and greatly slows down global warming, the inevitable result would be climate deniers saying "See, climate change is slowing down! There was no crisis!" and doubling down on efforts to keep burning rocks for power, or whatever the end goals of climate deniers are.
I just don't see a solution...
Unfortunately, the best solution to many of the planet's ills is probably some sort of mass terrorist act or biological attack against ourselves to wipe out a significant amount of the human population. Not that I'm advocating that or anything.
*SNAP*
(haven't seen the new one yet, but I read they don't really consider the complete and utter economic collapse that would come from 50% of people vanishing instantly)
They do have support groups, though. (Seriously, there's a scene involving that. And it's played straight.)
I just don't see a solution...
Unfortunately, the best solution to many of the planet's ills is probably some sort of mass terrorist act or biological attack against ourselves to wipe out a significant amount of the human population. Not that I'm advocating that or anything.
How many centuries before we're capable of colonizing another planet, assuming one is found? I assume we're screwed.
With food and water shortages that are likely to occur as the population of the Earth increases, yeah, I wonder if we're eventually going to have a population crash?
In terms of colonizing another planet, at this point in time, it seems not possible. Notice I didn't say not "probable" I said not possible. The Moon does not have enough water, although it may be possible to extract water and produce both water and oxygen. However, this entails living underground your entire life. Well, okay you can have trips to the surface but strikes are likely to destroy any external structure or at any rate damage it severly. Also, it's not clear it's viable to produce water and oxygen and electricity. If it is, then the Moon might in principle be habitable, but not at this stage. As for Mars, the biggest problem is that it lacks a magnetosphere. Currently, there is no technology that we know of that could produce a magnetic field strong and large enough to protect Mars from solar radiation. Maybe in the future, but certainly not now. As for planets outside our solar system, well the nearest is over 4 light-years away, and if you hopped on a rocket to get there, it would take you around 100,000 years.
With food and water shortages that are likely to occur as the population of the Earth increases, yeah, I wonder if we're eventually going to have a population crash?
Food I'm not as worried about, as we've made incredible strides in increasing food yields. We may have to get a bit unconventional in the future (like more people eating insects), but we can produce food for some time, more if we cut down on wasting it.
Water will be a challenge. Not so much the consumption, but the contamination of potable supply.
Humans themselves are a resource, and an increase in and of itself is not a bad thing. We just need to be smart about it.
Paul Ehrlich aka the guy whose every prediction has been massively wrong?
He admits that some of his predictions have not occurred, but so what? Other scientists have said part of his "erroneous predictions" may in fact be due to his warnings which have encouraged governments to change their policies. As a scientist, one of the things I was always told is "you will be wrong". You look at the facts, and draw conclusions based upon the limited data you have. You will never be 100% correct. It's "funny" (not really) but when scientists such as Ehrlich are wrong, people love to say "ho ho ho, what a buffoon! it was obvious he was wrong!" but when someone like Ehrlich is right, they say "Well yeah. Why didn't anyone listen to him?!"
"so what" you do is, given his past track record of predictions, is assign his future preductions a credibility factor of about 0.01, and treat them thusly. Then, monitor his future predictions compared to reality, and change the credibility factor up or down in light of new data.
Paul Ehrlich aka the guy whose every prediction has been massively wrong?
He admits that some of his predictions have not occurred, but so what? Other scientists have said part of his "erroneous predictions" may in fact be due to his warnings which have encouraged governments to change their policies. As a scientist, one of the things I was always told is "you will be wrong". You look at the facts, and draw conclusions based upon the limited data you have. You will never be 100% correct. It's "funny" (not really) but when scientists such as Ehrlich are wrong, people love to say "ho ho ho, what a buffoon! it was obvious he was wrong!" but when someone like Ehrlich is right, they say "Well yeah. Why didn't anyone listen to him?!"
"so what" you do is, given his past track record of predictions, is assign his future preductions a credibility factor of about 0.01, and treat them thusly. Then, monitor his future predictions compared to reality, and change the credibility factor up or down in light of new data.
I don't think you understand how science works to be honest, and no offense, most people don't. Regardless, it's a moot point since he was only one author out of some 150 scientists from 50 nations.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2019/05/06/one-million-species-face-extinction-un-panel-says-humans-will-suffer-result/?utm_term=.844a16df62c2
Ice is the Arctic is plentiful...
Arctic ice is declining at a rate of 12.8% per decade on average.
https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/arctic-sea-ice/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/energy-environment/2018/12/11...
I want the ice to stay. Its already too dam hot and its only May.
I just don't see a solution...
Unfortunately, the best solution to many of the planet's ills is probably some sort of mass terrorist act or biological attack against ourselves to wipe out a significant amount of the human population. Not that I'm advocating that or anything.
*SNAP*
(haven't seen the new one yet, but I read they don't really consider the complete and utter economic collapse that would come from 50% of people vanishing instantly)
I guess I was speaking for what would be best for the planet. I imagine most of the human population (the ones that lived) would be returning to the dark ages in this scenario
You need WAY fewer than half the current population for subsistence farming to be better for the planet that large scale commercial farming.
And likely fewer than that to avoid seasonal smog issues from a population that would need to derive 100% of their heat from wood burning.
Where'd you guys graduate from just out of curiosity?
Lots of fuckin scientists in here, had no idea.
Where'd you guys graduate from just out of curiosity?
Well facebook had these quizzes you can take
Lots of fuckin scientists in here, had no idea.
Where'd you guys graduate from just out of curiosity?
Breh...i get my educatianz from daily youtube recommends and ocasional facebook random assigned viral videos in my timeline.
I get mine from breitbart's reddit page
Ill have to check it out. Sounds like some good, down to earth reasonable folks.
Where'd you guys graduate from just out of curiosity?
Bovine University.
or of course this favorite
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/moon-landing-celebrates-47th-anniversary-8446862
So, yeah, I'm not surprised people don't accept science.