It's been 5-6 months and all this predicted "supply chain" in response to inflated prices has not played out yet. For most of this, there is more demand coming into the market than supply, particularly when considering that high end collectors purchase multiple copies of the same items. I would certainly bet, with recent events (NA sale, ComicLink getting involved, etc.), that trend is likely to continue. NES collectors are also starting to come back in with more time and money, as their kids get older and their income increases.
People are still stuck in the past here imo. Stuff was the same for so long that people have come to accept it as a never-ending reality. What really happened is supply took years to accumulate on Ebay and sat, creating the illusion that a lot of these items were more common than they are. Fifteen new oval sealed SMB are not just going to appear because that many were on Ebay in January. It took many many months for those to get there.
Now there are people lining up to buy these when they appear, and that line is just going to increase. In fact, the biggest threat, imo, is there isn't enough supply and people get bored and quit. But that's where CIB and variants and first print and all of that comes into play to fill those needs for collectors.
I'll end with this. A number of comic behemoths are snatching up stock like there is no tomorrow. That should tell you all you need to know.
It's been 5-6 months and all this predicted "supply chain" in response to inflated prices has not played out yet. For most of this, there is more demand coming into the market than supply, particularly when considering that high end collectors purchase multiple copies of the same items. I would certainly bet, with recent events (NA sale, ComicLink getting involved, etc.), that trend is likely to continue. NES collectors are also starting to come back in with more time and money, as their kids get older and their income increases.
People are still stuck in the past here imo. Stuff was the same for so long that people have come to accept it as a never-ending reality. What really happened is supply took years to accumulate on Ebay and sat, creating the illusion that a lot of these items were more common than they are. Fifteen new oval sealed SMB are not just going to appear because that many were on Ebay in January. It took many many months for those to get there.
Now there are people lining up to buy these when they appear, and that line is just going to increase. In fact, the biggest threat, imo, is there isn't enough supply and people get bored and quit. But that's where CIB and variants and first print and all of that comes into play to fill those needs for collectors.
I'll end with this. A number of comic behemoths are snatching up stock like there is no tomorrow. That should tell you all you need to know.
Were you around or remember the VGA boom from 2011-2013? Same thing happened, NES collecting exploded, lots of active WTB threads and all kinds of crap was getting submitted and selling significantly above raw prices. There was also a whale in the scene paying insane prices. That came back to reality... the cream of the crop continues to rise, and always will over time. But right now lots of mundane stuff is getting graded and selling for higher than it should, and that certainly won't continue.
You also have lots of money just stockpiling into the hobby creating this log jam. 5 to 6 months is nothing, you need to give it at least a year or two for normal buy and sell cycles to play out. Right now all of the new money is on the buy side and they are fighting among themselves to buy. But when they sell who's buying? Not me at these prices. When I say supply I don't mean some unfound troves of CIBs / Sealed games in attics, I mean some of the current buyers (demand signals) turning into sellers (pushing supply). And of course they always want to get back what they paid, so they try to set that as a price and the hot potato stops somewhere... unless you're in that top 1% of truly exceptional games.
You're also driven by nostalgia more than speculating. I don't care if you're a millionaire, if some holy grail comic comes up for $1M that you've wanted for a decade then whats the first things that you try to sell? These rinky dink Marios and sticker seals that you grabbed over the last few months with no attachment. You can't judge how real any of this is until the items being bought at record prices are also being resold to new buyers at record prices, and consistently holding those levels. When you see that happening with regularity, then you can confirm your hypothesis. Until then it's nothing more than a pump / hype game with speculators.
IMO It's all about getting those Instagram likes, Ooo's and Ahh's comments from other peers. If it wasn't for social media, HALF these guys wouldn't be collecting , because there would be no one there to show it off to.
IMO It's all about getting those Instagram likes, Ooo's and Ahh's comments from other peers. If it wasn't for social media, HALF these guys wouldn't be collecting , because there would be no one there to show it off to.
People have been collecting comics, coins, stamps, cards, etc. for millions and millions of dollars since well before social media existed. Maybe social media has added fuel to the fire, like it has for everything else, but it’s about more than that.
It's been 5-6 months and all this predicted "supply chain" in response to inflated prices has not played out yet. For most of this, there is more demand coming into the market than supply, particularly when considering that high end collectors purchase multiple copies of the same items. I would certainly bet, with recent events (NA sale, ComicLink getting involved, etc.), that trend is likely to continue. NES collectors are also starting to come back in with more time and money, as their kids get older and their income increases.
People are still stuck in the past here imo. Stuff was the same for so long that people have come to accept it as a never-ending reality. What really happened is supply took years to accumulate on Ebay and sat, creating the illusion that a lot of these items were more common than they are. Fifteen new oval sealed SMB are not just going to appear because that many were on Ebay in January. It took many many months for those to get there.
Now there are people lining up to buy these when they appear, and that line is just going to increase. In fact, the biggest threat, imo, is there isn't enough supply and people get bored and quit. But that's where CIB and variants and first print and all of that comes into play to fill those needs for collectors.
I'll end with this. A number of comic behemoths are snatching up stock like there is no tomorrow. That should tell you all you need to know.
Were you around or remember the VGA boom from 2011-2013? Same thing happened, NES collecting exploded, lots of active WTB threads and all kinds of crap was getting submitted and selling significantly above raw prices. There was also a whale in the scene paying insane prices. That came back to reality... the cream of the crop continues to rise, and always will over time. But right now lots of mundane stuff is getting graded and selling for higher than it should, and that certainly won't continue.
You also have lots of money just stockpiling into the hobby creating this log jam. 5 to 6 months is nothing, you need to give it at least a year or two for normal buy and sell cycles to play out. Right now all of the new money is on the buy side and they are fighting among themselves to buy. But when they sell who's buying? Not me at these prices. When I say supply I don't mean some unfound troves of CIBs / Sealed games in attics, I mean some of the current buyers (demand signals) turning into sellers (pushing supply). And of course they always want to get back what they paid, so they try to set that as a price and the hot potato stops somewhere... unless you're in that top 1% of truly exceptional games.
You're also driven by nostalgia more than speculating. I don't care if you're a millionaire, if some holy grail comic comes up for $1M that you've wanted for a decade then whats the first things that you try to sell? These rinky dink Marios and sticker seals that you grabbed over the last few months with no attachment. You can't judge how real any of this is until the items being bought at record prices are also being resold to new buyers at record prices, and consistently holding those levels. When you see that happening with regularity, then you can confirm your hypothesis. Until then it's nothing more than a pump / hype game with speculators.
Attachment is precisely the reason I believe this has all been undervalued for years and was due for a big upswing. These higher prices games have gone for the past 5-6 months are still potatoes compared to other collectibles, and what hobby has more attachment potential to people than video games? You can argue comics and toys, but I would guess overall those are dwarfed by emotional and nostalgic connections people have to video games. The closer we get to fully-cloud intrgrated systems, the stronger nostagia for physical older stuff will grow imo.
Is this a large deal of speculation? Of course! Then again, so is pretty much any collectible. I just think when you look at what has and is happening, it just makes a ton of sense. And I think there is a ton of potential to tap where the market is concerned and the gears have started to grind.
It's been 5-6 months and all this predicted "supply chain" in response to inflated prices has not played out yet. For most of this, there is more demand coming into the market than supply, particularly when considering that high end collectors purchase multiple copies of the same items. I would certainly bet, with recent events (NA sale, ComicLink getting involved, etc.), that trend is likely to continue. NES collectors are also starting to come back in with more time and money, as their kids get older and their income increases.
People are still stuck in the past here imo. Stuff was the same for so long that people have come to accept it as a never-ending reality. What really happened is supply took years to accumulate on Ebay and sat, creating the illusion that a lot of these items were more common than they are. Fifteen new oval sealed SMB are not just going to appear because that many were on Ebay in January. It took many many months for those to get there.
Now there are people lining up to buy these when they appear, and that line is just going to increase. In fact, the biggest threat, imo, is there isn't enough supply and people get bored and quit. But that's where CIB and variants and first print and all of that comes into play to fill those needs for collectors.
I'll end with this. A number of comic behemoths are snatching up stock like there is no tomorrow. That should tell you all you need to know.
Were you around or remember the VGA boom from 2011-2013? Same thing happened, NES collecting exploded, lots of active WTB threads and all kinds of crap was getting submitted and selling significantly above raw prices. There was also a whale in the scene paying insane prices. That came back to reality... the cream of the crop continues to rise, and always will over time. But right now lots of mundane stuff is getting graded and selling for higher than it should, and that certainly won't continue.
You also have lots of money just stockpiling into the hobby creating this log jam. 5 to 6 months is nothing, you need to give it at least a year or two for normal buy and sell cycles to play out. Right now all of the new money is on the buy side and they are fighting among themselves to buy. But when they sell who's buying? Not me at these prices. When I say supply I don't mean some unfound troves of CIBs / Sealed games in attics, I mean some of the current buyers (demand signals) turning into sellers (pushing supply). And of course they always want to get back what they paid, so they try to set that as a price and the hot potato stops somewhere... unless you're in that top 1% of truly exceptional games.
You're also driven by nostalgia more than speculating. I don't care if you're a millionaire, if some holy grail comic comes up for $1M that you've wanted for a decade then whats the first things that you try to sell? These rinky dink Marios and sticker seals that you grabbed over the last few months with no attachment. You can't judge how real any of this is until the items being bought at record prices are also being resold to new buyers at record prices, and consistently holding those levels. When you see that happening with regularity, then you can confirm your hypothesis. Until then it's nothing more than a pump / hype game with speculators.
I wasn't around for the 2011-2013 VGA boom. Was there anything selling for higher during that period than today?
I got into buying games a little over two years ago and I came into it with a deep experience in comics. When I started buying games I don't think it was a hot buying period so I might be an exception but I wouldn't assume that all or most of the new buyers aren't driven by nostalgia. My buying has been mostly nostalgia driven. It took me a while to dive into sealed game collecting after kicking the can for years and the reason for that was uncertainty. The stuff I wanted was expensive, and I didn't know enough to be able to justify it. There is a whole skill set / knowledge base required in order to collect games. So many box variations and the prices on ebay were all over the place. I've owned every console from the NES through to PS4 and have been playing games since I was 5 years old. But I didn't know the difference between an oval soq and a circle soq until a few years ago. VGA grading took me a while to get used to as well, coming from comics it made no sense to me. 85+ for an item that looks 9.6 and 80 can look like a 6.5. You could only get 3 pop reports a day and that is depending on whether they reply that day or not to your email. Point being, It wasn't/isn't the easiest hobby to jump into.
The hurdles I just mentioned above have been somewhat alleviated with WATA grading now. Not only does the grading scale make more sense, it seems like they are going a long way to educate the hobby and expose the hobby to new people. An example of this was that excellent black box guide they made available on their site. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I've never seen VGA do anything remotely close to that. I feel like that goes a long way, especially with collectors entering a new hobby. WATA has been active at comic shows and seem really approachable. We're also seeing regular public auctions which are great because it inspires confidence in new bidders and we're going to be seeing even more of that soon. As WATA grades more and more games, their census information will be become publicly available and will eventually be extremely important to buyers. Right now a WATA 9.8 is cool and all, but wait until an auction house can pump it as the single highest graded example in the world. I think there is plenty of room for this hobby to grow. We might see some short term corrections on some things as new buyers learn the ropes. One example that comes to mind is SMB left bros CIB. But overall I think the future is pretty bright (or bleak if you still have a lot of unfulfilled collecting goals like I do
The increases in price are on much more solid ground this time than with Omar. That was a joke we all knew would end. This is more thoughtful and more real.
IMO It's all about getting those Instagram likes, Ooo's and Ahh's comments from other peers. If it wasn't for social media, HALF these guys wouldn't be collecting , because there would be no one there to show it off to.
People have been collecting comics, coins, stamps, cards, etc. for millions and millions of dollars since well before social media existed. Maybe social media has added fuel to the fire, like it has for everything else, but it’s about more than that.
well, what online forums and social media have done going on 20 years is to shift value from common items or common condition to extraordinary items.
And that IS all about likes and seeing how big your online penis is and all that . Bragging rights.
The increases in price are on much more solid ground this time than with Omar. That was a joke we all knew would end. This is more thoughtful and more real.
What does "much more solid ground this time than with Omar" mean?
Overall, a super fascinating thread as it weaves together multiple perspectives in regards to where the hobby is today and where it might be going. Thanks for everyone's responses!
The increases in price are on much more solid ground this time than with Omar. That was a joke we all knew would end. This is more thoughtful and more real.
What does "much more solid ground this time than with Omar" mean?
Overall, a super fascinating thread as it weaves together multiple perspectives in regards to where the hobby is today and where it might be going. Thanks for everyone's responses!
He is saying that "this time" the high prices aren't being generated by a single manic buyer.
The increases in price are on much more solid ground this time than with Omar. That was a joke we all knew would end. This is more thoughtful and more real.
What does "much more solid ground this time than with Omar" mean?
Overall, a super fascinating thread as it weaves together multiple perspectives in regards to where the hobby is today and where it might be going. Thanks for everyone's responses!
He is saying that "this time" the high prices aren't being generated by a single manic buyer.
Right, there's so many more people invested from wata to heritage to new collectors , and new publicity etc etc.
Real person. Not a comic collector. Spent a couple mil in a couple months about 7-8 years ago what were then and mostly still are batshit crazy purchases that threw the whole market upside down. 10x FMV type prices on average maybe?
Couple mil doesn't sound like much today to disrupt the whole market in the way that it did, but a couple mil went further then plus that couple mil, people spent some of it buying back shit, etc... so with the knock on effects it was probably double that circulated.
You really can't have seen how stupid it was unless you lived it. People getting in bidding wars over things to flip to him, staying up til 3 in the morning to try and get some of his time and attention because 100 people were doing it at once, his ridiculous decision tree emails, the visits to the notary public to get the bills of sale he wanted, people bidding on the stupidest things (like cool spot) that he liked... people get pissy with each other over who was going to sell to him first etc etc etc.
It was a total and complete shitshow of greed and while it was a great party for those that sold to him it was so ridiculous and such a big display of greed all around that it left a lot of collectors with a bad hangover. Once he stopped buying everybody pulled back like they'd been on a massive bender. Things didn't settle afterwards for a surprisingly long time. Years really.
As far as rising prices: Fighting FOMO is the most stressful part of this hobby for me. I used to be in on the modern limited print releases, then I realized that besides a select few that isn't what I wanted for my collection. I started collecting heavy for Game Boy after that, and then got back into DS and Sega Saturn, only to find out the prices have gone up since I last focused on those systems. Right now I'm on a general 32 bit kick, mostly PS1 but picking up Saturn when I can. Wish I had gotten in on these systems sooner.
As far as rising prices: Fighting FOMO is the most stressful part of this hobby for me. I used to be in on the modern limited print releases, then I realized that besides a select few that isn't what I wanted for my collection. I started collecting heavy for Game Boy after that, and then got back into DS and Sega Saturn, only to find out the prices have gone up since I last focused on those systems. Right now I'm on a general 32 bit kick, mostly PS1 but picking up Saturn when I can. Wish I had gotten in on these systems sooner.
GameCube is high right now too.
The way I avoid FOMO is setting a limit for how much I'm willing to pay for a certain game, controller, system, or game piece. If it goes above that price, then I pretty much only resort to trading to get these pieces. You have to have limits, otherwise you'll go nuts and overspend and it could get out of control quickly. Collect for the systems you love. Hunt for deals, and sometimes, admit defeat and hope you stumble across a magical deal in the future (trust me, it can happen).
GameCube and DS are both awesome systems to collect for btw.
A) I wasn't around for the 2011-2013 VGA boom. Was there anything selling for higher during that period than today?
I got into buying games a little over two years ago and I came into it with a deep experience in comics. When I started buying games I don't think it was a hot buying period so I might be an exception but I wouldn't assume that all or most of the new buyers aren't driven by nostalgia. My buying has been mostly nostalgia driven. It took me a while to dive into sealed game collecting after kicking the can for years and the reason for that was uncertainty. The stuff I wanted was expensive, and I didn't know enough to be able to justify it. There is a whole skill set / knowledge base required in order to collect games. So many box variations and the prices on ebay were all over the place. I've owned every console from the NES through to PS4 and have been playing games since I was 5 years old. But I didn't know the difference between an oval soq and a circle soq until a few years ago. C)VGA grading took me a while to get used to as well, coming from comics it made no sense to me. 85+ for an item that looks 9.6 and 80 can look like a 6.5. You could only get 3 pop reports a day and that is depending on whether they reply that day or not to your email. Point being, It wasn't/isn't the easiest hobby to jump into.
The hurdles I just mentioned above have been somewhat alleviated with WATA grading now. Not only does the grading scale make more sense, it seems like they are going a long way to educate the hobby and expose the hobby to new people. An example of this was that excellent black box guide they made available on their site. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I've never seen VGA do anything remotely close to that. I feel like that goes a long way, especially with collectors entering a new hobby. WATA has been active at comic shows and seem really approachable. We're also seeing regular public auctions which are great because it inspires confidence in new bidders and we're going to be seeing even more of that soon. As WATA grades more and more games, their census information will be become publicly available and will eventually be extremely important to buyers. D) Right now a WATA 9.8 is cool and all, but wait until an auction house can pump it as the single highest graded example in the world. I think there is plenty of room for this hobby to grow. We might see some short term corrections on some things as new buyers learn the ropes. One example that comes to mind is SMB left bros CIB. But overall I think the future is pretty bright (or bleak if you still have a lot of unfulfilled collecting goals like I do
A) Yes - though obviously most items are worth more today than 6-8 years ago. Ones that aren't are niche items that sold for stupid all-time highs as Bronty alluded too... and some of that is also occuring now FYI. On graded / certified stuff, the population reports have also significantly increased over 6-8 years. Thus supply is up and that causes low graded copies that sold for high prices to drop as buyers have more opportunities and demand better grades.
Yes there is a knowledge set, but to be fair, Wata isn't publishing much new. The information has been around on the forums and variants have been discussed for awhile. Wata is just consolidating that information and making it freely available to the masses, and dumbing it down for outsiders to understand. If you truly had a passion for the hobby then yes you had to clear hurdles but it was not unmanagable. The biggest hurdle, which you didn't even mention, was making sure you don't buy fakes if you chasing expensive items. Reproductions are insane these days compared to years ago.
C) That is your opinion, as a comic collector. I don't do comics so the whole 9.0-9.2-9.4 thing didn't make sense to me and I had to overcome a learning curve to figure out that grading system too. I know that I typically like VGA 85+ on NES and VGA 90 on newer. That's usually one or two miniscule flaws. I'm finding that's about A+ / 9.6 or higher, maybe A / 9.4 when the price is right. Lower grades really aren't that good and I'm not sure if everyone really understands the grade translations yet. An A / 9.0 sounds good but it's probably more like an 80+ in the grand scheme. Also, before anyone goes down this rabbit hole, grading is INHERENTLY SUBJECTIVE, and while you should agree with most of the grades (if you have a trained eye), you will still see grades that you don't agree with from time to time, whether it is Wata or VGA. On VGA I agree with about 80% and find myself thinking 10% are graded too high and 10% are too low. I'll have to hold and see more Wata to formulate an opinion there.
As for population reports... asking via email is silly I agree, but Wata still doesn't have population reports either. So that has no bearing on anyone's decision to enter the market.
D) That's amibitious and won't ever happen unless VGA goes out of business. I'm not interested in crossing stuff over that is already Gold level and I know plenty of people who feel the same. You can have multiple grading companies exist in a hobby... I collect cards and PSA / BGS both have significant followings and have their own registry chasers. As such, if I'm going after a card, I have to consult both databases to see the population, and you have no idea of knowing which are inaccurate because something was crossed over. You can advertise something as "highest graded" but the buyer has to do the research and really know what else is out there.
“Fear of missing out.” The phrase was coined by boomers who were mad that young people use social media/smart phones. Or at least that’s where I first heard it used.
A) I wasn't around for the 2011-2013 VGA boom. Was there anything selling for higher during that period than today?
I got into buying games a little over two years ago and I came into it with a deep experience in comics. When I started buying games I don't think it was a hot buying period so I might be an exception but I wouldn't assume that all or most of the new buyers aren't driven by nostalgia. My buying has been mostly nostalgia driven. It took me a while to dive into sealed game collecting after kicking the can for years and the reason for that was uncertainty. The stuff I wanted was expensive, and I didn't know enough to be able to justify it. There is a whole skill set / knowledge base required in order to collect games. So many box variations and the prices on ebay were all over the place. I've owned every console from the NES through to PS4 and have been playing games since I was 5 years old. But I didn't know the difference between an oval soq and a circle soq until a few years ago. C)VGA grading took me a while to get used to as well, coming from comics it made no sense to me. 85+ for an item that looks 9.6 and 80 can look like a 6.5. You could only get 3 pop reports a day and that is depending on whether they reply that day or not to your email. Point being, It wasn't/isn't the easiest hobby to jump into.
The hurdles I just mentioned above have been somewhat alleviated with WATA grading now. Not only does the grading scale make more sense, it seems like they are going a long way to educate the hobby and expose the hobby to new people. An example of this was that excellent black box guide they made available on their site. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I've never seen VGA do anything remotely close to that. I feel like that goes a long way, especially with collectors entering a new hobby. WATA has been active at comic shows and seem really approachable. We're also seeing regular public auctions which are great because it inspires confidence in new bidders and we're going to be seeing even more of that soon. As WATA grades more and more games, their census information will be become publicly available and will eventually be extremely important to buyers. D) Right now a WATA 9.8 is cool and all, but wait until an auction house can pump it as the single highest graded example in the world. I think there is plenty of room for this hobby to grow. We might see some short term corrections on some things as new buyers learn the ropes. One example that comes to mind is SMB left bros CIB. But overall I think the future is pretty bright (or bleak if you still have a lot of unfulfilled collecting goals like I do
A) Yes - though obviously most items are worth more today than 6-8 years ago. Ones that aren't are niche items that sold for stupid all-time highs as Bronty alluded too... and some of that is also occuring now FYI. On graded / certified stuff, the population reports have also significantly increased over 6-8 years. Thus supply is up and that causes low graded copies that sold for high prices to drop as buyers have more opportunities and demand better grades.
Yes there is a knowledge set, but to be fair, Wata isn't publishing much new. The information has been around on the forums and variants have been discussed for awhile. Wata is just consolidating that information and making it freely available to the masses, and dumbing it down for outsiders to understand. If you truly had a passion for the hobby then yes you had to clear hurdles but it was not unmanagable. The biggest hurdle, which you didn't even mention, was making sure you don't buy fakes if you chasing expensive items. Reproductions are insane these days compared to years ago.
C) That is your opinion, as a comic collector. I don't do comics so the whole 9.0-9.2-9.4 thing didn't make sense to me and I had to overcome a learning curve to figure out that grading system too. I know that I typically like VGA 85+ on NES and VGA 90 on newer. That's usually one or two miniscule flaws. I'm finding that's about A+ / 9.6 or higher, maybe A / 9.4 when the price is right. Lower grades really aren't that good and I'm not sure if everyone really understands the grade translations yet. An A / 9.0 sounds good but it's probably more like an 80+ in the grand scheme. Also, before anyone goes down this rabbit hole, grading is INHERENTLY SUBJECTIVE, and while you should agree with most of the grades (if you have a trained eye), you will still see grades that you don't agree with from time to time, whether it is Wata or VGA. On VGA I agree with about 80% and find myself thinking 10% are graded too high and 10% are too low. I'll have to hold and see more Wata to formulate an opinion there.
As for population reports... asking via email is silly I agree, but Wata still doesn't have population reports either. So that has no bearing on anyone's decision to enter the market.
D) That's amibitious and won't ever happen unless VGA goes out of business. I'm not interested in crossing stuff over that is already Gold level and I know plenty of people who feel the same. You can have multiple grading companies exist in a hobby... I collect cards and PSA / BGS both have significant followings and have their own registry chasers. As such, if I'm going after a card, I have to consult both databases to see the population, and you have no idea of knowing which are inaccurate because something was crossed over. You can advertise something as "highest graded" but the buyer has to do the research and really know what else is out there.
This is a great post, thanks. The sentence that i bolded/underlined is perhaps the most important of this thread. The optics of a 9.0 looks great and its easy to arbitrage an 80+ to a 9 but really they shouldnt be worth more. Some new collectors should realize this, and im sure they will through time.
A) I wasn't around for the 2011-2013 VGA boom. Was there anything selling for higher during that period than today?
I got into buying games a little over two years ago and I came into it with a deep experience in comics. When I started buying games I don't think it was a hot buying period so I might be an exception but I wouldn't assume that all or most of the new buyers aren't driven by nostalgia. My buying has been mostly nostalgia driven. It took me a while to dive into sealed game collecting after kicking the can for years and the reason for that was uncertainty. The stuff I wanted was expensive, and I didn't know enough to be able to justify it. There is a whole skill set / knowledge base required in order to collect games. So many box variations and the prices on ebay were all over the place. I've owned every console from the NES through to PS4 and have been playing games since I was 5 years old. But I didn't know the difference between an oval soq and a circle soq until a few years ago. C)VGA grading took me a while to get used to as well, coming from comics it made no sense to me. 85+ for an item that looks 9.6 and 80 can look like a 6.5. You could only get 3 pop reports a day and that is depending on whether they reply that day or not to your email. Point being, It wasn't/isn't the easiest hobby to jump into.
The hurdles I just mentioned above have been somewhat alleviated with WATA grading now. Not only does the grading scale make more sense, it seems like they are going a long way to educate the hobby and expose the hobby to new people. An example of this was that excellent black box guide they made available on their site. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I've never seen VGA do anything remotely close to that. I feel like that goes a long way, especially with collectors entering a new hobby. WATA has been active at comic shows and seem really approachable. We're also seeing regular public auctions which are great because it inspires confidence in new bidders and we're going to be seeing even more of that soon. As WATA grades more and more games, their census information will be become publicly available and will eventually be extremely important to buyers. D) Right now a WATA 9.8 is cool and all, but wait until an auction house can pump it as the single highest graded example in the world. I think there is plenty of room for this hobby to grow. We might see some short term corrections on some things as new buyers learn the ropes. One example that comes to mind is SMB left bros CIB. But overall I think the future is pretty bright (or bleak if you still have a lot of unfulfilled collecting goals like I do
A) Yes - though obviously most items are worth more today than 6-8 years ago. Ones that aren't are niche items that sold for stupid all-time highs as Bronty alluded too... and some of that is also occuring now FYI. On graded / certified stuff, the population reports have also significantly increased over 6-8 years. Thus supply is up and that causes low graded copies that sold for high prices to drop as buyers have more opportunities and demand better grades.
Yes there is a knowledge set, but to be fair, Wata isn't publishing much new. The information has been around on the forums and variants have been discussed for awhile. Wata is just consolidating that information and making it freely available to the masses, and dumbing it down for outsiders to understand. If you truly had a passion for the hobby then yes you had to clear hurdles but it was not unmanagable. The biggest hurdle, which you didn't even mention, was making sure you don't buy fakes if you chasing expensive items. Reproductions are insane these days compared to years ago.
C) That is your opinion, as a comic collector. I don't do comics so the whole 9.0-9.2-9.4 thing didn't make sense to me and I had to overcome a learning curve to figure out that grading system too. I know that I typically like VGA 85+ on NES and VGA 90 on newer. That's usually one or two miniscule flaws. I'm finding that's about A+ / 9.6 or higher, maybe A / 9.4 when the price is right. Lower grades really aren't that good and I'm not sure if everyone really understands the grade translations yet. An A / 9.0 sounds good but it's probably more like an 80+ in the grand scheme. Also, before anyone goes down this rabbit hole, grading is INHERENTLY SUBJECTIVE, and while you should agree with most of the grades (if you have a trained eye), you will still see grades that you don't agree with from time to time, whether it is Wata or VGA. On VGA I agree with about 80% and find myself thinking 10% are graded too high and 10% are too low. I'll have to hold and see more Wata to formulate an opinion there.
As for population reports... asking via email is silly I agree, but Wata still doesn't have population reports either. So that has no bearing on anyone's decision to enter the market.
D) That's amibitious and won't ever happen unless VGA goes out of business. I'm not interested in crossing stuff over that is already Gold level and I know plenty of people who feel the same. You can have multiple grading companies exist in a hobby... I collect cards and PSA / BGS both have significant followings and have their own registry chasers. As such, if I'm going after a card, I have to consult both databases to see the population, and you have no idea of knowing which are inaccurate because something was crossed over. You can advertise something as "highest graded" but the buyer has to do the research and really know what else is out there.
To your point, there is way more information available on this forum than being published by WATA, but it's not that easy to find and it's not easy to digest. Obviously, hardcore enthusiasts are going to seek out this information and even uncover new information. That said, that kind of dedication is only going to happen for the most serious collectors (Like yourself and a lot of the members here) and that's one reason that the hobby has been relatively small for so long. There are a lot of potential collectors though, with varying degrees of passion and money. Some will need to be educated on why something is cool before they get it. I hope they continue with more articles. As far as fake detection goes, that's where WATA and VGA should come in. Especially for new collectors.
Good point on the VGA grades. It's all very much dependant on what you are used to. I think overall having two grading companies is great for the hobby. If both companies stay around for a while, I think we'll see a more advanced crossover market between the two. I do think that most of the new entries to the hobby are going to be more comfortable with a 10 point scale style of grading though. Comics, Cards, Movie Posters, most Olympic sports. Even if you aren't familiar with grading standards at all, rating something on a scale from 1 to 10 is pretty intuitive and understandable. The vast majority of VGA graded games fall in the 80 to 90 range (maybe even 80 to 85) and the difference in quality from 80 to 90 is pretty damn drastic. I think that's tougher to wrap your head around then a 10 point scale, even with the 9.0, 9.2, 9.4, 9.6, 9.8, 9.9, 10 scale on the high end.
I'm looking down the road. The Pop reports at WATA are going to be available at some point. When it comes to comic books and cards, the census is hugely important to demand and price. Both have 3 grading companies each. Yes it gets more complicated with multiple grading companies involved but it remains important nonetheless. CGC's census is also inaccurate from years of resubmissions of the same comic. Even if the information isn't perfect because of cross overs and resubmissions (without returning the labels, etc) the information is still useful in gauging rarity in grade. Once that population information becomes publicly available it will be used to promote listings without a doubt.
I don't think a set translation/crossover metric works.
VGA has always been tough on wrap. Wata is more interested in the box.
A vga 85 could be an 8.0 and it could be a 9.6, and I've seen that happen with games I've sold. Depending on what made it an 85 was box wear or wrap wear, and depending on how tight or loose the 85 was too I guess.
In other words, 80+ = 9.0 is, in my opinion, really inaccurate because that 80+ could be a 9.6 or it could be 7.5.
I have an 80+ in my collection right now that I have zero doubt is a 9.4 or 9.6 and I have 85+s that might be 8.0s.
A) I wasn't around for the 2011-2013 VGA boom. Was there anything selling for higher during that period than today?
I got into buying games a little over two years ago and I came into it with a deep experience in comics. When I started buying games I don't think it was a hot buying period so I might be an exception but I wouldn't assume that all or most of the new buyers aren't driven by nostalgia. My buying has been mostly nostalgia driven. It took me a while to dive into sealed game collecting after kicking the can for years and the reason for that was uncertainty. The stuff I wanted was expensive, and I didn't know enough to be able to justify it. There is a whole skill set / knowledge base required in order to collect games. So many box variations and the prices on ebay were all over the place. I've owned every console from the NES through to PS4 and have been playing games since I was 5 years old. But I didn't know the difference between an oval soq and a circle soq until a few years ago. C)VGA grading took me a while to get used to as well, coming from comics it made no sense to me. 85+ for an item that looks 9.6 and 80 can look like a 6.5. You could only get 3 pop reports a day and that is depending on whether they reply that day or not to your email. Point being, It wasn't/isn't the easiest hobby to jump into.
The hurdles I just mentioned above have been somewhat alleviated with WATA grading now. Not only does the grading scale make more sense, it seems like they are going a long way to educate the hobby and expose the hobby to new people. An example of this was that excellent black box guide they made available on their site. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I've never seen VGA do anything remotely close to that. I feel like that goes a long way, especially with collectors entering a new hobby. WATA has been active at comic shows and seem really approachable. We're also seeing regular public auctions which are great because it inspires confidence in new bidders and we're going to be seeing even more of that soon. As WATA grades more and more games, their census information will be become publicly available and will eventually be extremely important to buyers. D) Right now a WATA 9.8 is cool and all, but wait until an auction house can pump it as the single highest graded example in the world. I think there is plenty of room for this hobby to grow. We might see some short term corrections on some things as new buyers learn the ropes. One example that comes to mind is SMB left bros CIB. But overall I think the future is pretty bright (or bleak if you still have a lot of unfulfilled collecting goals like I do
A) Yes - though obviously most items are worth more today than 6-8 years ago. Ones that aren't are niche items that sold for stupid all-time highs as Bronty alluded too... and some of that is also occuring now FYI. On graded / certified stuff, the population reports have also significantly increased over 6-8 years. Thus supply is up and that causes low graded copies that sold for high prices to drop as buyers have more opportunities and demand better grades.
Yes there is a knowledge set, but to be fair, Wata isn't publishing much new. The information has been around on the forums and variants have been discussed for awhile. Wata is just consolidating that information and making it freely available to the masses, and dumbing it down for outsiders to understand. If you truly had a passion for the hobby then yes you had to clear hurdles but it was not unmanagable. The biggest hurdle, which you didn't even mention, was making sure you don't buy fakes if you chasing expensive items. Reproductions are insane these days compared to years ago.
C) That is your opinion, as a comic collector. I don't do comics so the whole 9.0-9.2-9.4 thing didn't make sense to me and I had to overcome a learning curve to figure out that grading system too. I know that I typically like VGA 85+ on NES and VGA 90 on newer. That's usually one or two miniscule flaws. I'm finding that's about A+ / 9.6 or higher, maybe A / 9.4 when the price is right. Lower grades really aren't that good and I'm not sure if everyone really understands the grade translations yet. An A / 9.0 sounds good but it's probably more like an 80+ in the grand scheme. Also, before anyone goes down this rabbit hole, grading is INHERENTLY SUBJECTIVE, and while you should agree with most of the grades (if you have a trained eye), you will still see grades that you don't agree with from time to time, whether it is Wata or VGA. On VGA I agree with about 80% and find myself thinking 10% are graded too high and 10% are too low. I'll have to hold and see more Wata to formulate an opinion there.
As for population reports... asking via email is silly I agree, but Wata still doesn't have population reports either. So that has no bearing on anyone's decision to enter the market.
D) That's amibitious and won't ever happen unless VGA goes out of business. I'm not interested in crossing stuff over that is already Gold level and I know plenty of people who feel the same. You can have multiple grading companies exist in a hobby... I collect cards and PSA / BGS both have significant followings and have their own registry chasers. As such, if I'm going after a card, I have to consult both databases to see the population, and you have no idea of knowing which are inaccurate because something was crossed over. You can advertise something as "highest graded" but the buyer has to do the research and really know what else is out there.
This is a great post, thanks. The sentence that i bolded/underlined is perhaps the most important of this thread. The optics of a 9.0 looks great and its easy to arbitrage an 80+ to a 9 but really they shouldnt be worth more. Some new collectors should realize this, and im sure they will through time.
Isn't it more complicated then that though? The way WATA grades is so drastically different than VGA it almost seems like there is no general standard between the two. For example, I have a VGA 85 with a near perfect box. It has a seam tear on the shrink on one of the edges. With VGA grading the box and shrink seal together, you can find 9.4 boxes with bad shrink seals and cross them over to much higher grades. I'm pretty sure a VGA 80+ Sonic was crossed to WATA 9.4 IIRC. On the flip side, you can probably take a WATA 7.0 A++ seal and cross it over to VGA and get a more appealing grade as well.
Edit - sorry Dan, I didn't see your post when I was typing this.
I don't think a set translation/crossover metric works.
VGA has always been tough on wrap. Wata is more interested in the box.
A vga 85 could be an 8.0 and it could be a 9.6, and I've seen that happen with games I've sold. Depending on what made it an 85 was box wear or wrap wear, and depending on how tight or loose the 85 was too I guess.
In other words, 80+ = 9.0 is, in my opinion, really inaccurate because that 80+ could be a 9.6 or it could be 7.5.
I have an 80+ in my collection right now that I have zero doubt is a 9.4 or 9.6 and I have 85+s that might be 8.0s.
It works as much as a rule of thumb can, like saying a NES CIB price is roughly = 2.5x loose cart. Does it work the majority of the time, yes, does it work all the time, of course not. It's no more than a rule of thumb to baseline your thoughts, then you do your detailed analysis and revise. Is it a hangtab box, then CIB is going to be more than 2.5. Is this a sealed game with a mint box and just shrink tears / corner pokes? Then maybe it's a VGA 80+/85 that crosses over to a B/A seal and 9.4 or so.
The jump can only go so far though. If a VGA 80+ went to 9.6 then it either got overgraded by Wata or under by VGA, hopefully you could agree on that. An 80+ should have some type of severe flaw holding it back. At best it could have been VGA 80+/85 borderline, just missed 85, and then it was 9.4/9.6 borderline and just made 9.6. You'd hope that was a 1 in a 1000 (1 in 10,000?) type shot though and extreme luck (or unluck) on both ends.
Also, you have a lot more insight if you graded the game yourself and knew what you were doing. I trust your opinion on your own VGA 80+ if it was subbed first hand over anyone else. When you send the game in for grading you set your own expectations. As I said, the vast majority of the time they fall-in line, but I've gotten 85+ on a game I thought was 85 and vice versa. So if you got 80+ on a game that you really thought was 80+/85 borderline, then you have "insider knowledge" that it could be crossed over to Wata and do better than an outside eye would think.
Isn't it more complicated then that though? The way WATA grades is so drastically different than VGA it almost seems like there is no general standard between the two. For example, I have a VGA 85 with a near perfect box. It has a seam tear on the shrink on one of the edges. With VGA grading the box and shrink seal together, you can find 9.4 boxes with bad shrink seals and cross them over to much higher grades. I'm pretty sure a VGA 80+ Sonic was crossed to WATA 9.4 IIRC. On the flip side, you can probably take a WATA 7.0 A++ seal and cross it over to VGA and get a more appealing grade as well.
Edit - sorry Dan, I didn't see your post when I was typing this.
I responded to Dan, but realize that you are generalizing from the outliers / exceptions and not the norm. Most games have similar wear in terms of box and wrap. Finding a Mint Box with poor wrap is unusual (for the wrap to get that much wear, you'd think the corners would get wear too... unless it is just a wrap tear from an improperly removed price sticker / razor blade / etc., still flukey) and finding Mint wrap on a poor box is even more unusual. I'm having a hard time coming up with an example of a pristine wrap that has a poor box... maybe opening a sealed case and dropping the game directly on a corner? Once again though, not the norm for a 30 year old game.
I totally agree with Dan and Jason here. There is no hard rule of conversion because of the box/shrinkwrap focus that is different for both companies. This just goes to show that you should buy the game and not the grade.
But the point i was trying to make is that « transforming » an 80-85% in a 9/10 or 9.4/10 optically looks really good and thats the arbitrage we are seeing right now i believe as new collectors are getting into these items.
So if i take Bronty's example where two of the same games are graded vga80+ and get crossed over: one gets a 9.6 B rating and the other 7.5 A++ rating or 8 A++ (doesnt really matter). One is probably expected to sell much higher with the new grading scale even though they both came from the same vga box, which arguably were worth very similar prices before they crossed over.
This example may be a bit extreme but it illustrates the arbitrage point (quite frankly i dont think such a big discrepancy in grades from the same vga box is probable, but i am not experienced enough to know.)
I have yet to see a gold rated game crossover and doubt we will see much of them as its entirely possible the huge difference between 85 and 85+ is way, way smaller under the wata scale (like do people care between an A or A++ deal to this day? My GUESS is not really, but that may change in the future as the market adjusts.)
I don't think a set translation/crossover metric works.
VGA has always been tough on wrap. Wata is more interested in the box.
A vga 85 could be an 8.0 and it could be a 9.6, and I've seen that happen with games I've sold. Depending on what made it an 85 was box wear or wrap wear, and depending on how tight or loose the 85 was too I guess.
In other words, 80+ = 9.0 is, in my opinion, really inaccurate because that 80+ could be a 9.6 or it could be 7.5.
I have an 80+ in my collection right now that I have zero doubt is a 9.4 or 9.6 and I have 85+s that might be 8.0s.
It works as much as a rule of thumb can, like saying a NES CIB price is roughly = 2.5x loose cart.
well, I know where you're going with that, but from my POV those types of rules of thumb just introduce inaccuracies.
As we all know, what is a VGA 85 varies greatly. And I'm sure that what is a wata 9.0 will vary greatly over time if it doesn't already.
So we are going to take one loosely defined variable based on one set of criteria, and compare to another loosely defined variable based on a completely different set of criteria, and expect to extract meaningful results?
Much better IMO to ditch the rules of thumb and take a fresh look at the actual game in question before crossing over.
Comments
People are still stuck in the past here imo. Stuff was the same for so long that people have come to accept it as a never-ending reality. What really happened is supply took years to accumulate on Ebay and sat, creating the illusion that a lot of these items were more common than they are. Fifteen new oval sealed SMB are not just going to appear because that many were on Ebay in January. It took many many months for those to get there.
Now there are people lining up to buy these when they appear, and that line is just going to increase. In fact, the biggest threat, imo, is there isn't enough supply and people get bored and quit. But that's where CIB and variants and first print and all of that comes into play to fill those needs for collectors.
I'll end with this. A number of comic behemoths are snatching up stock like there is no tomorrow. That should tell you all you need to know.
It's been 5-6 months and all this predicted "supply chain" in response to inflated prices has not played out yet. For most of this, there is more demand coming into the market than supply, particularly when considering that high end collectors purchase multiple copies of the same items. I would certainly bet, with recent events (NA sale, ComicLink getting involved, etc.), that trend is likely to continue. NES collectors are also starting to come back in with more time and money, as their kids get older and their income increases.
People are still stuck in the past here imo. Stuff was the same for so long that people have come to accept it as a never-ending reality. What really happened is supply took years to accumulate on Ebay and sat, creating the illusion that a lot of these items were more common than they are. Fifteen new oval sealed SMB are not just going to appear because that many were on Ebay in January. It took many many months for those to get there.
Now there are people lining up to buy these when they appear, and that line is just going to increase. In fact, the biggest threat, imo, is there isn't enough supply and people get bored and quit. But that's where CIB and variants and first print and all of that comes into play to fill those needs for collectors.
I'll end with this. A number of comic behemoths are snatching up stock like there is no tomorrow. That should tell you all you need to know.
Were you around or remember the VGA boom from 2011-2013? Same thing happened, NES collecting exploded, lots of active WTB threads and all kinds of crap was getting submitted and selling significantly above raw prices. There was also a whale in the scene paying insane prices. That came back to reality... the cream of the crop continues to rise, and always will over time. But right now lots of mundane stuff is getting graded and selling for higher than it should, and that certainly won't continue.
You also have lots of money just stockpiling into the hobby creating this log jam. 5 to 6 months is nothing, you need to give it at least a year or two for normal buy and sell cycles to play out. Right now all of the new money is on the buy side and they are fighting among themselves to buy. But when they sell who's buying? Not me at these prices. When I say supply I don't mean some unfound troves of CIBs / Sealed games in attics, I mean some of the current buyers (demand signals) turning into sellers (pushing supply). And of course they always want to get back what they paid, so they try to set that as a price and the hot potato stops somewhere... unless you're in that top 1% of truly exceptional games.
You're also driven by nostalgia more than speculating. I don't care if you're a millionaire, if some holy grail comic comes up for $1M that you've wanted for a decade then whats the first things that you try to sell? These rinky dink Marios and sticker seals that you grabbed over the last few months with no attachment. You can't judge how real any of this is until the items being bought at record prices are also being resold to new buyers at record prices, and consistently holding those levels. When you see that happening with regularity, then you can confirm your hypothesis. Until then it's nothing more than a pump / hype game with speculators.
IMO It's all about getting those Instagram likes, Ooo's and Ahh's comments from other peers. If it wasn't for social media, HALF these guys wouldn't be collecting , because there would be no one there to show it off to.
People have been collecting comics, coins, stamps, cards, etc. for millions and millions of dollars since well before social media existed. Maybe social media has added fuel to the fire, like it has for everything else, but it’s about more than that.
It's been 5-6 months and all this predicted "supply chain" in response to inflated prices has not played out yet. For most of this, there is more demand coming into the market than supply, particularly when considering that high end collectors purchase multiple copies of the same items. I would certainly bet, with recent events (NA sale, ComicLink getting involved, etc.), that trend is likely to continue. NES collectors are also starting to come back in with more time and money, as their kids get older and their income increases.
People are still stuck in the past here imo. Stuff was the same for so long that people have come to accept it as a never-ending reality. What really happened is supply took years to accumulate on Ebay and sat, creating the illusion that a lot of these items were more common than they are. Fifteen new oval sealed SMB are not just going to appear because that many were on Ebay in January. It took many many months for those to get there.
Now there are people lining up to buy these when they appear, and that line is just going to increase. In fact, the biggest threat, imo, is there isn't enough supply and people get bored and quit. But that's where CIB and variants and first print and all of that comes into play to fill those needs for collectors.
I'll end with this. A number of comic behemoths are snatching up stock like there is no tomorrow. That should tell you all you need to know.
Were you around or remember the VGA boom from 2011-2013? Same thing happened, NES collecting exploded, lots of active WTB threads and all kinds of crap was getting submitted and selling significantly above raw prices. There was also a whale in the scene paying insane prices. That came back to reality... the cream of the crop continues to rise, and always will over time. But right now lots of mundane stuff is getting graded and selling for higher than it should, and that certainly won't continue.
You also have lots of money just stockpiling into the hobby creating this log jam. 5 to 6 months is nothing, you need to give it at least a year or two for normal buy and sell cycles to play out. Right now all of the new money is on the buy side and they are fighting among themselves to buy. But when they sell who's buying? Not me at these prices. When I say supply I don't mean some unfound troves of CIBs / Sealed games in attics, I mean some of the current buyers (demand signals) turning into sellers (pushing supply). And of course they always want to get back what they paid, so they try to set that as a price and the hot potato stops somewhere... unless you're in that top 1% of truly exceptional games.
You're also driven by nostalgia more than speculating. I don't care if you're a millionaire, if some holy grail comic comes up for $1M that you've wanted for a decade then whats the first things that you try to sell? These rinky dink Marios and sticker seals that you grabbed over the last few months with no attachment. You can't judge how real any of this is until the items being bought at record prices are also being resold to new buyers at record prices, and consistently holding those levels. When you see that happening with regularity, then you can confirm your hypothesis. Until then it's nothing more than a pump / hype game with speculators.
Attachment is precisely the reason I believe this has all been undervalued for years and was due for a big upswing. These higher prices games have gone for the past 5-6 months are still potatoes compared to other collectibles, and what hobby has more attachment potential to people than video games? You can argue comics and toys, but I would guess overall those are dwarfed by emotional and nostalgic connections people have to video games. The closer we get to fully-cloud intrgrated systems, the stronger nostagia for physical older stuff will grow imo.
Is this a large deal of speculation? Of course! Then again, so is pretty much any collectible. I just think when you look at what has and is happening, it just makes a ton of sense. And I think there is a ton of potential to tap where the market is concerned and the gears have started to grind.
It's been 5-6 months and all this predicted "supply chain" in response to inflated prices has not played out yet. For most of this, there is more demand coming into the market than supply, particularly when considering that high end collectors purchase multiple copies of the same items. I would certainly bet, with recent events (NA sale, ComicLink getting involved, etc.), that trend is likely to continue. NES collectors are also starting to come back in with more time and money, as their kids get older and their income increases.
People are still stuck in the past here imo. Stuff was the same for so long that people have come to accept it as a never-ending reality. What really happened is supply took years to accumulate on Ebay and sat, creating the illusion that a lot of these items were more common than they are. Fifteen new oval sealed SMB are not just going to appear because that many were on Ebay in January. It took many many months for those to get there.
Now there are people lining up to buy these when they appear, and that line is just going to increase. In fact, the biggest threat, imo, is there isn't enough supply and people get bored and quit. But that's where CIB and variants and first print and all of that comes into play to fill those needs for collectors.
I'll end with this. A number of comic behemoths are snatching up stock like there is no tomorrow. That should tell you all you need to know.
Were you around or remember the VGA boom from 2011-2013? Same thing happened, NES collecting exploded, lots of active WTB threads and all kinds of crap was getting submitted and selling significantly above raw prices. There was also a whale in the scene paying insane prices. That came back to reality... the cream of the crop continues to rise, and always will over time. But right now lots of mundane stuff is getting graded and selling for higher than it should, and that certainly won't continue.
You also have lots of money just stockpiling into the hobby creating this log jam. 5 to 6 months is nothing, you need to give it at least a year or two for normal buy and sell cycles to play out. Right now all of the new money is on the buy side and they are fighting among themselves to buy. But when they sell who's buying? Not me at these prices. When I say supply I don't mean some unfound troves of CIBs / Sealed games in attics, I mean some of the current buyers (demand signals) turning into sellers (pushing supply). And of course they always want to get back what they paid, so they try to set that as a price and the hot potato stops somewhere... unless you're in that top 1% of truly exceptional games.
You're also driven by nostalgia more than speculating. I don't care if you're a millionaire, if some holy grail comic comes up for $1M that you've wanted for a decade then whats the first things that you try to sell? These rinky dink Marios and sticker seals that you grabbed over the last few months with no attachment. You can't judge how real any of this is until the items being bought at record prices are also being resold to new buyers at record prices, and consistently holding those levels. When you see that happening with regularity, then you can confirm your hypothesis. Until then it's nothing more than a pump / hype game with speculators.
I wasn't around for the 2011-2013 VGA boom. Was there anything selling for higher during that period than today?
I got into buying games a little over two years ago and I came into it with a deep experience in comics. When I started buying games I don't think it was a hot buying period so I might be an exception but I wouldn't assume that all or most of the new buyers aren't driven by nostalgia. My buying has been mostly nostalgia driven. It took me a while to dive into sealed game collecting after kicking the can for years and the reason for that was uncertainty. The stuff I wanted was expensive, and I didn't know enough to be able to justify it. There is a whole skill set / knowledge base required in order to collect games. So many box variations and the prices on ebay were all over the place. I've owned every console from the NES through to PS4 and have been playing games since I was 5 years old. But I didn't know the difference between an oval soq and a circle soq until a few years ago. VGA grading took me a while to get used to as well, coming from comics it made no sense to me. 85+ for an item that looks 9.6 and 80 can look like a 6.5. You could only get 3 pop reports a day and that is depending on whether they reply that day or not to your email. Point being, It wasn't/isn't the easiest hobby to jump into.
The hurdles I just mentioned above have been somewhat alleviated with WATA grading now. Not only does the grading scale make more sense, it seems like they are going a long way to educate the hobby and expose the hobby to new people. An example of this was that excellent black box guide they made available on their site. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I've never seen VGA do anything remotely close to that. I feel like that goes a long way, especially with collectors entering a new hobby. WATA has been active at comic shows and seem really approachable. We're also seeing regular public auctions which are great because it inspires confidence in new bidders and we're going to be seeing even more of that soon. As WATA grades more and more games, their census information will be become publicly available and will eventually be extremely important to buyers. Right now a WATA 9.8 is cool and all, but wait until an auction house can pump it as the single highest graded example in the world. I think there is plenty of room for this hobby to grow. We might see some short term corrections on some things as new buyers learn the ropes. One example that comes to mind is SMB left bros CIB. But overall I think the future is pretty bright (or bleak if you still have a lot of unfulfilled collecting goals like I do
IMO It's all about getting those Instagram likes, Ooo's and Ahh's comments from other peers. If it wasn't for social media, HALF these guys wouldn't be collecting , because there would be no one there to show it off to.
People have been collecting comics, coins, stamps, cards, etc. for millions and millions of dollars since well before social media existed. Maybe social media has added fuel to the fire, like it has for everything else, but it’s about more than that.
well, what online forums and social media have done going on 20 years is to shift value from common items or common condition to extraordinary items.
And that IS all about likes and seeing how big your online penis is and all that . Bragging rights.
The increases in price are on much more solid ground this time than with Omar. That was a joke we all knew would end. This is more thoughtful and more real.
What does "much more solid ground this time than with Omar" mean?
Overall, a super fascinating thread as it weaves together multiple perspectives in regards to where the hobby is today and where it might be going. Thanks for everyone's responses!
The increases in price are on much more solid ground this time than with Omar. That was a joke we all knew would end. This is more thoughtful and more real.
What does "much more solid ground this time than with Omar" mean?
Overall, a super fascinating thread as it weaves together multiple perspectives in regards to where the hobby is today and where it might be going. Thanks for everyone's responses!
He is saying that "this time" the high prices aren't being generated by a single manic buyer.
The increases in price are on much more solid ground this time than with Omar. That was a joke we all knew would end. This is more thoughtful and more real.
What does "much more solid ground this time than with Omar" mean?
Overall, a super fascinating thread as it weaves together multiple perspectives in regards to where the hobby is today and where it might be going. Thanks for everyone's responses!
He is saying that "this time" the high prices aren't being generated by a single manic buyer.
Right, there's so many more people invested from wata to heritage to new collectors , and new publicity etc etc.
Way more repeatable results than last time.
Couple mil doesn't sound like much today to disrupt the whole market in the way that it did, but a couple mil went further then plus that couple mil, people spent some of it buying back shit, etc... so with the knock on effects it was probably double that circulated.
You really can't have seen how stupid it was unless you lived it. People getting in bidding wars over things to flip to him, staying up til 3 in the morning to try and get some of his time and attention because 100 people were doing it at once, his ridiculous decision tree emails, the visits to the notary public to get the bills of sale he wanted, people bidding on the stupidest things (like cool spot) that he liked... people get pissy with each other over who was going to sell to him first etc etc etc.
It was a total and complete shitshow of greed and while it was a great party for those that sold to him it was so ridiculous and such a big display of greed all around that it left a lot of collectors with a bad hangover. Once he stopped buying everybody pulled back like they'd been on a massive bender. Things didn't settle afterwards for a surprisingly long time. Years really.
GameCube is high right now too.
As far as rising prices: Fighting FOMO is the most stressful part of this hobby for me. I used to be in on the modern limited print releases, then I realized that besides a select few that isn't what I wanted for my collection. I started collecting heavy for Game Boy after that, and then got back into DS and Sega Saturn, only to find out the prices have gone up since I last focused on those systems. Right now I'm on a general 32 bit kick, mostly PS1 but picking up Saturn when I can. Wish I had gotten in on these systems sooner.
GameCube is high right now too.
The way I avoid FOMO is setting a limit for how much I'm willing to pay for a certain game, controller, system, or game piece. If it goes above that price, then I pretty much only resort to trading to get these pieces. You have to have limits, otherwise you'll go nuts and overspend and it could get out of control quickly. Collect for the systems you love. Hunt for deals, and sometimes, admit defeat and hope you stumble across a magical deal in the future (trust me, it can happen).
GameCube and DS are both awesome systems to collect for btw.
Wtf is FOMO
Fear of missing out
Wtf is FOMO
Fear of missing out
Someone isn't invested in crypto... *Rolls eyes*
Wtf is FOMO
Don’t worry you’re not alone..... I had to google it
A) I wasn't around for the 2011-2013 VGA boom. Was there anything selling for higher during that period than today?
I got into buying games a little over two years ago and I came into it with a deep experience in comics. When I started buying games I don't think it was a hot buying period so I might be an exception but I wouldn't assume that all or most of the new buyers aren't driven by nostalgia. My buying has been mostly nostalgia driven. It took me a while to dive into sealed game collecting after kicking the can for years and the reason for that was uncertainty. The stuff I wanted was expensive, and I didn't know enough to be able to justify it.
The hurdles I just mentioned above have been somewhat alleviated with WATA grading now. Not only does the grading scale make more sense, it seems like they are going a long way to educate the hobby and expose the hobby to new people. An example of this was that excellent black box guide they made available on their site. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I've never seen VGA do anything remotely close to that. I feel like that goes a long way, especially with collectors entering a new hobby. WATA has been active at comic shows and seem really approachable. We're also seeing regular public auctions which are great because it inspires confidence in new bidders and we're going to be seeing even more of that soon. As WATA grades more and more games, their census information will be become publicly available and will eventually be extremely important to buyers. D) Right now a WATA 9.8 is cool and all, but wait until an auction house can pump it as the single highest graded example in the world. I think there is plenty of room for this hobby to grow. We might see some short term corrections on some things as new buyers learn the ropes. One example that comes to mind is SMB left bros CIB. But overall I think the future is pretty bright (or bleak if you still have a lot of unfulfilled collecting goals like I do
A) Yes - though obviously most items are worth more today than 6-8 years ago. Ones that aren't are niche items that sold for stupid all-time highs as Bronty alluded too... and some of that is also occuring now FYI. On graded / certified stuff, the population reports have also significantly increased over 6-8 years. Thus supply is up and that causes low graded copies that sold for high prices to drop as buyers have more opportunities and demand better grades.
C) That is your opinion, as a comic collector. I don't do comics so the whole 9.0-9.2-9.4 thing didn't make sense to me and I had to overcome a learning curve to figure out that grading system too. I know that I typically like VGA 85+ on NES and VGA 90 on newer. That's usually one or two miniscule flaws. I'm finding that's about A+ / 9.6 or higher, maybe A / 9.4 when the price is right. Lower grades really aren't that good and I'm not sure if everyone really understands the grade translations yet. An A / 9.0 sounds good but it's probably more like an 80+ in the grand scheme. Also, before anyone goes down this rabbit hole, grading is INHERENTLY SUBJECTIVE, and while you should agree with most of the grades (if you have a trained eye), you will still see grades that you don't agree with from time to time, whether it is Wata or VGA. On VGA I agree with about 80% and find myself thinking 10% are graded too high and 10% are too low. I'll have to hold and see more Wata to formulate an opinion there.
As for population reports... asking via email is silly I agree, but Wata still doesn't have population reports either. So that has no bearing on anyone's decision to enter the market.
D) That's amibitious and won't ever happen unless VGA goes out of business. I'm not interested in crossing stuff over that is already Gold level and I know plenty of people who feel the same. You can have multiple grading companies exist in a hobby... I collect cards and PSA / BGS both have significant followings and have their own registry chasers. As such, if I'm going after a card, I have to consult both databases to see the population, and you have no idea of knowing which are inaccurate because something was crossed over. You can advertise something as "highest graded" but the buyer has to do the research and really know what else is out there.
Wtf is FOMO
“Fear of missing out.” The phrase was coined by boomers who were mad that young people use social media/smart phones. Or at least that’s where I first heard it used.
A) I wasn't around for the 2011-2013 VGA boom. Was there anything selling for higher during that period than today?
I got into buying games a little over two years ago and I came into it with a deep experience in comics. When I started buying games I don't think it was a hot buying period so I might be an exception but I wouldn't assume that all or most of the new buyers aren't driven by nostalgia. My buying has been mostly nostalgia driven. It took me a while to dive into sealed game collecting after kicking the can for years and the reason for that was uncertainty. The stuff I wanted was expensive, and I didn't know enough to be able to justify it.
The hurdles I just mentioned above have been somewhat alleviated with WATA grading now. Not only does the grading scale make more sense, it seems like they are going a long way to educate the hobby and expose the hobby to new people. An example of this was that excellent black box guide they made available on their site. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I've never seen VGA do anything remotely close to that. I feel like that goes a long way, especially with collectors entering a new hobby. WATA has been active at comic shows and seem really approachable. We're also seeing regular public auctions which are great because it inspires confidence in new bidders and we're going to be seeing even more of that soon. As WATA grades more and more games, their census information will be become publicly available and will eventually be extremely important to buyers. D) Right now a WATA 9.8 is cool and all, but wait until an auction house can pump it as the single highest graded example in the world. I think there is plenty of room for this hobby to grow. We might see some short term corrections on some things as new buyers learn the ropes. One example that comes to mind is SMB left bros CIB. But overall I think the future is pretty bright (or bleak if you still have a lot of unfulfilled collecting goals like I do
A) Yes - though obviously most items are worth more today than 6-8 years ago. Ones that aren't are niche items that sold for stupid all-time highs as Bronty alluded too... and some of that is also occuring now FYI. On graded / certified stuff, the population reports have also significantly increased over 6-8 years. Thus supply is up and that causes low graded copies that sold for high prices to drop as buyers have more opportunities and demand better grades.
C) That is your opinion, as a comic collector. I don't do comics so the whole 9.0-9.2-9.4 thing didn't make sense to me and I had to overcome a learning curve to figure out that grading system too. I know that I typically like VGA 85+ on NES and VGA 90 on newer. That's usually one or two miniscule flaws. I'm finding that's about A+ / 9.6 or higher, maybe A / 9.4 when the price is right. Lower grades really aren't that good and I'm not sure if everyone really understands the grade translations yet. An A / 9.0 sounds good but it's probably more like an 80+ in the grand scheme. Also, before anyone goes down this rabbit hole, grading is INHERENTLY SUBJECTIVE, and while you should agree with most of the grades (if you have a trained eye), you will still see grades that you don't agree with from time to time, whether it is Wata or VGA. On VGA I agree with about 80% and find myself thinking 10% are graded too high and 10% are too low. I'll have to hold and see more Wata to formulate an opinion there.
As for population reports... asking via email is silly I agree, but Wata still doesn't have population reports either. So that has no bearing on anyone's decision to enter the market.
D) That's amibitious and won't ever happen unless VGA goes out of business. I'm not interested in crossing stuff over that is already Gold level and I know plenty of people who feel the same. You can have multiple grading companies exist in a hobby... I collect cards and PSA / BGS both have significant followings and have their own registry chasers. As such, if I'm going after a card, I have to consult both databases to see the population, and you have no idea of knowing which are inaccurate because something was crossed over. You can advertise something as "highest graded" but the buyer has to do the research and really know what else is out there.
This is a great post, thanks. The sentence that i bolded/underlined is perhaps the most important of this thread. The optics of a 9.0 looks great and its easy to arbitrage an 80+ to a 9 but really they shouldnt be worth more. Some new collectors should realize this, and im sure they will through time.
A) I wasn't around for the 2011-2013 VGA boom. Was there anything selling for higher during that period than today?
I got into buying games a little over two years ago and I came into it with a deep experience in comics. When I started buying games I don't think it was a hot buying period so I might be an exception but I wouldn't assume that all or most of the new buyers aren't driven by nostalgia. My buying has been mostly nostalgia driven. It took me a while to dive into sealed game collecting after kicking the can for years and the reason for that was uncertainty. The stuff I wanted was expensive, and I didn't know enough to be able to justify it.
The hurdles I just mentioned above have been somewhat alleviated with WATA grading now. Not only does the grading scale make more sense, it seems like they are going a long way to educate the hobby and expose the hobby to new people. An example of this was that excellent black box guide they made available on their site. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I've never seen VGA do anything remotely close to that. I feel like that goes a long way, especially with collectors entering a new hobby. WATA has been active at comic shows and seem really approachable. We're also seeing regular public auctions which are great because it inspires confidence in new bidders and we're going to be seeing even more of that soon. As WATA grades more and more games, their census information will be become publicly available and will eventually be extremely important to buyers. D) Right now a WATA 9.8 is cool and all, but wait until an auction house can pump it as the single highest graded example in the world. I think there is plenty of room for this hobby to grow. We might see some short term corrections on some things as new buyers learn the ropes. One example that comes to mind is SMB left bros CIB. But overall I think the future is pretty bright (or bleak if you still have a lot of unfulfilled collecting goals like I do
A) Yes - though obviously most items are worth more today than 6-8 years ago. Ones that aren't are niche items that sold for stupid all-time highs as Bronty alluded too... and some of that is also occuring now FYI. On graded / certified stuff, the population reports have also significantly increased over 6-8 years. Thus supply is up and that causes low graded copies that sold for high prices to drop as buyers have more opportunities and demand better grades.
C) That is your opinion, as a comic collector. I don't do comics so the whole 9.0-9.2-9.4 thing didn't make sense to me and I had to overcome a learning curve to figure out that grading system too. I know that I typically like VGA 85+ on NES and VGA 90 on newer. That's usually one or two miniscule flaws. I'm finding that's about A+ / 9.6 or higher, maybe A / 9.4 when the price is right. Lower grades really aren't that good and I'm not sure if everyone really understands the grade translations yet. An A / 9.0 sounds good but it's probably more like an 80+ in the grand scheme. Also, before anyone goes down this rabbit hole, grading is INHERENTLY SUBJECTIVE, and while you should agree with most of the grades (if you have a trained eye), you will still see grades that you don't agree with from time to time, whether it is Wata or VGA. On VGA I agree with about 80% and find myself thinking 10% are graded too high and 10% are too low. I'll have to hold and see more Wata to formulate an opinion there.
As for population reports... asking via email is silly I agree, but Wata still doesn't have population reports either. So that has no bearing on anyone's decision to enter the market.
D) That's amibitious and won't ever happen unless VGA goes out of business. I'm not interested in crossing stuff over that is already Gold level and I know plenty of people who feel the same. You can have multiple grading companies exist in a hobby... I collect cards and PSA / BGS both have significant followings and have their own registry chasers. As such, if I'm going after a card, I have to consult both databases to see the population, and you have no idea of knowing which are inaccurate because something was crossed over. You can advertise something as "highest graded" but the buyer has to do the research and really know what else is out there.
To your point, there is way more information available on this forum than being published by WATA, but it's not that easy to find and it's not easy to digest. Obviously, hardcore enthusiasts are going to seek out this information and even uncover new information. That said, that kind of dedication is only going to happen for the most serious collectors (Like yourself and a lot of the members here) and that's one reason that the hobby has been relatively small for so long. There are a lot of potential collectors though, with varying degrees of passion and money. Some will need to be educated on why something is cool before they get it. I hope they continue with more articles. As far as fake detection goes, that's where WATA and VGA should come in. Especially for new collectors.
Good point on the VGA grades. It's all very much dependant on what you are used to. I think overall having two grading companies is great for the hobby. If both companies stay around for a while, I think we'll see a more advanced crossover market between the two. I do think that most of the new entries to the hobby are going to be more comfortable with a 10 point scale style of grading though. Comics, Cards, Movie Posters, most Olympic sports. Even if you aren't familiar with grading standards at all, rating something on a scale from 1 to 10 is pretty intuitive and understandable. The vast majority of VGA graded games fall in the 80 to 90 range (maybe even 80 to 85) and the difference in quality from 80 to 90 is pretty damn drastic. I think that's tougher to wrap your head around then a 10 point scale, even with the 9.0, 9.2, 9.4, 9.6, 9.8, 9.9, 10 scale on the high end.
I'm looking down the road. The Pop reports at WATA are going to be available at some point. When it comes to comic books and cards, the census is hugely important to demand and price. Both have 3 grading companies each. Yes it gets more complicated with multiple grading companies involved but it remains important nonetheless. CGC's census is also inaccurate from years of resubmissions of the same comic. Even if the information isn't perfect because of cross overs and resubmissions (without returning the labels, etc) the information is still useful in gauging rarity in grade. Once that population information becomes publicly available it will be used to promote listings without a doubt.
VGA has always been tough on wrap. Wata is more interested in the box.
A vga 85 could be an 8.0 and it could be a 9.6, and I've seen that happen with games I've sold. Depending on what made it an 85 was box wear or wrap wear, and depending on how tight or loose the 85 was too I guess.
In other words, 80+ = 9.0 is, in my opinion, really inaccurate because that 80+ could be a 9.6 or it could be 7.5.
I have an 80+ in my collection right now that I have zero doubt is a 9.4 or 9.6 and I have 85+s that might be 8.0s.
A) I wasn't around for the 2011-2013 VGA boom. Was there anything selling for higher during that period than today?
I got into buying games a little over two years ago and I came into it with a deep experience in comics. When I started buying games I don't think it was a hot buying period so I might be an exception but I wouldn't assume that all or most of the new buyers aren't driven by nostalgia. My buying has been mostly nostalgia driven. It took me a while to dive into sealed game collecting after kicking the can for years and the reason for that was uncertainty. The stuff I wanted was expensive, and I didn't know enough to be able to justify it.
The hurdles I just mentioned above have been somewhat alleviated with WATA grading now. Not only does the grading scale make more sense, it seems like they are going a long way to educate the hobby and expose the hobby to new people. An example of this was that excellent black box guide they made available on their site. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I've never seen VGA do anything remotely close to that. I feel like that goes a long way, especially with collectors entering a new hobby. WATA has been active at comic shows and seem really approachable. We're also seeing regular public auctions which are great because it inspires confidence in new bidders and we're going to be seeing even more of that soon. As WATA grades more and more games, their census information will be become publicly available and will eventually be extremely important to buyers. D) Right now a WATA 9.8 is cool and all, but wait until an auction house can pump it as the single highest graded example in the world. I think there is plenty of room for this hobby to grow. We might see some short term corrections on some things as new buyers learn the ropes. One example that comes to mind is SMB left bros CIB. But overall I think the future is pretty bright (or bleak if you still have a lot of unfulfilled collecting goals like I do
A) Yes - though obviously most items are worth more today than 6-8 years ago. Ones that aren't are niche items that sold for stupid all-time highs as Bronty alluded too... and some of that is also occuring now FYI. On graded / certified stuff, the population reports have also significantly increased over 6-8 years. Thus supply is up and that causes low graded copies that sold for high prices to drop as buyers have more opportunities and demand better grades.
C) That is your opinion, as a comic collector. I don't do comics so the whole 9.0-9.2-9.4 thing didn't make sense to me and I had to overcome a learning curve to figure out that grading system too. I know that I typically like VGA 85+ on NES and VGA 90 on newer. That's usually one or two miniscule flaws. I'm finding that's about A+ / 9.6 or higher, maybe A / 9.4 when the price is right. Lower grades really aren't that good and I'm not sure if everyone really understands the grade translations yet. An A / 9.0 sounds good but it's probably more like an 80+ in the grand scheme. Also, before anyone goes down this rabbit hole, grading is INHERENTLY SUBJECTIVE, and while you should agree with most of the grades (if you have a trained eye), you will still see grades that you don't agree with from time to time, whether it is Wata or VGA. On VGA I agree with about 80% and find myself thinking 10% are graded too high and 10% are too low. I'll have to hold and see more Wata to formulate an opinion there.
As for population reports... asking via email is silly I agree, but Wata still doesn't have population reports either. So that has no bearing on anyone's decision to enter the market.
D) That's amibitious and won't ever happen unless VGA goes out of business. I'm not interested in crossing stuff over that is already Gold level and I know plenty of people who feel the same. You can have multiple grading companies exist in a hobby... I collect cards and PSA / BGS both have significant followings and have their own registry chasers. As such, if I'm going after a card, I have to consult both databases to see the population, and you have no idea of knowing which are inaccurate because something was crossed over. You can advertise something as "highest graded" but the buyer has to do the research and really know what else is out there.
This is a great post, thanks. The sentence that i bolded/underlined is perhaps the most important of this thread. The optics of a 9.0 looks great and its easy to arbitrage an 80+ to a 9 but really they shouldnt be worth more. Some new collectors should realize this, and im sure they will through time.
Isn't it more complicated then that though? The way WATA grades is so drastically different than VGA it almost seems like there is no general standard between the two. For example, I have a VGA 85 with a near perfect box. It has a seam tear on the shrink on one of the edges. With VGA grading the box and shrink seal together, you can find 9.4 boxes with bad shrink seals and cross them over to much higher grades. I'm pretty sure a VGA 80+ Sonic was crossed to WATA 9.4 IIRC. On the flip side, you can probably take a WATA 7.0 A++ seal and cross it over to VGA and get a more appealing grade as well.
Edit - sorry Dan, I didn't see your post when I was typing this.
I don't think a set translation/crossover metric works.
VGA has always been tough on wrap. Wata is more interested in the box.
A vga 85 could be an 8.0 and it could be a 9.6, and I've seen that happen with games I've sold. Depending on what made it an 85 was box wear or wrap wear, and depending on how tight or loose the 85 was too I guess.
In other words, 80+ = 9.0 is, in my opinion, really inaccurate because that 80+ could be a 9.6 or it could be 7.5.
I have an 80+ in my collection right now that I have zero doubt is a 9.4 or 9.6 and I have 85+s that might be 8.0s.
It works as much as a rule of thumb can, like saying a NES CIB price is roughly = 2.5x loose cart. Does it work the majority of the time, yes, does it work all the time, of course not. It's no more than a rule of thumb to baseline your thoughts, then you do your detailed analysis and revise. Is it a hangtab box, then CIB is going to be more than 2.5. Is this a sealed game with a mint box and just shrink tears / corner pokes? Then maybe it's a VGA 80+/85 that crosses over to a B/A seal and 9.4 or so.
The jump can only go so far though. If a VGA 80+ went to 9.6 then it either got overgraded by Wata or under by VGA, hopefully you could agree on that. An 80+ should have some type of severe flaw holding it back. At best it could have been VGA 80+/85 borderline, just missed 85, and then it was 9.4/9.6 borderline and just made 9.6. You'd hope that was a 1 in a 1000 (1 in 10,000?) type shot though and extreme luck (or unluck) on both ends.
Also, you have a lot more insight if you graded the game yourself and knew what you were doing. I trust your opinion on your own VGA 80+ if it was subbed first hand over anyone else. When you send the game in for grading you set your own expectations. As I said, the vast majority of the time they fall-in line, but I've gotten 85+ on a game I thought was 85 and vice versa. So if you got 80+ on a game that you really thought was 80+/85 borderline, then you have "insider knowledge" that it could be crossed over to Wata and do better than an outside eye would think.
Isn't it more complicated then that though? The way WATA grades is so drastically different than VGA it almost seems like there is no general standard between the two. For example, I have a VGA 85 with a near perfect box. It has a seam tear on the shrink on one of the edges. With VGA grading the box and shrink seal together, you can find 9.4 boxes with bad shrink seals and cross them over to much higher grades. I'm pretty sure a VGA 80+ Sonic was crossed to WATA 9.4 IIRC. On the flip side, you can probably take a WATA 7.0 A++ seal and cross it over to VGA and get a more appealing grade as well.
Edit - sorry Dan, I didn't see your post when I was typing this.
I responded to Dan, but realize that you are generalizing from the outliers / exceptions and not the norm. Most games have similar wear in terms of box and wrap. Finding a Mint Box with poor wrap is unusual (for the wrap to get that much wear, you'd think the corners would get wear too... unless it is just a wrap tear from an improperly removed price sticker / razor blade / etc., still flukey) and finding Mint wrap on a poor box is even more unusual. I'm having a hard time coming up with an example of a pristine wrap that has a poor box... maybe opening a sealed case and dropping the game directly on a corner? Once again though, not the norm for a 30 year old game.
But the point i was trying to make is that « transforming » an 80-85% in a 9/10 or 9.4/10 optically looks really good and thats the arbitrage we are seeing right now i believe as new collectors are getting into these items.
So if i take Bronty's example where two of the same games are graded vga80+ and get crossed over: one gets a 9.6 B rating and the other 7.5 A++ rating or 8 A++ (doesnt really matter). One is probably expected to sell much higher with the new grading scale even though they both came from the same vga box, which arguably were worth very similar prices before they crossed over.
This example may be a bit extreme but it illustrates the arbitrage point (quite frankly i dont think such a big discrepancy in grades from the same vga box is probable, but i am not experienced enough to know.)
I have yet to see a gold rated game crossover and doubt we will see much of them as its entirely possible the huge difference between 85 and 85+ is way, way smaller under the wata scale (like do people care between an A or A++ deal to this day? My GUESS is not really, but that may change in the future as the market adjusts.)
I don't think a set translation/crossover metric works.
VGA has always been tough on wrap. Wata is more interested in the box.
A vga 85 could be an 8.0 and it could be a 9.6, and I've seen that happen with games I've sold. Depending on what made it an 85 was box wear or wrap wear, and depending on how tight or loose the 85 was too I guess.
In other words, 80+ = 9.0 is, in my opinion, really inaccurate because that 80+ could be a 9.6 or it could be 7.5.
I have an 80+ in my collection right now that I have zero doubt is a 9.4 or 9.6 and I have 85+s that might be 8.0s.
It works as much as a rule of thumb can, like saying a NES CIB price is roughly = 2.5x loose cart.
well, I know where you're going with that, but from my POV those types of rules of thumb just introduce inaccuracies.
As we all know, what is a VGA 85 varies greatly. And I'm sure that what is a wata 9.0 will vary greatly over time if it doesn't already.
So we are going to take one loosely defined variable based on one set of criteria, and compare to another loosely defined variable based on a completely different set of criteria, and expect to extract meaningful results?
Much better IMO to ditch the rules of thumb and take a fresh look at the actual game in question before crossing over.