Aw, give ya Johnny some credit. I caught 30c on that PWRD break below 21, and 1 point on the CIB break below 57. That's some damn fine scalping A lot of people pay great money for stock daytrade alerts like that, and I posted them in this very thread.
Jone, read Mark Douglas' books Disciplined Trader and Trading in the Zone.
Unfuckingbelievable. Today is going to be a GREAT day at the gym, I wouldn't be surprised if I set new personal highs. I feel like I could punch through a cement wall right now.
What's so unbelievable about a 2% pop after a 9% drop? I wouldn't be particularly surprised if was red by the end of the day, or at least red, again, tomorrow.
i just bought 1k shares of gldx at $16.50. that is my investment of the week. huuuuuuge pullback in precious metals and the explorers fund has been crushed. time to get in!
Unfuckingbelievable. Today is going to be a GREAT day at the gym, I wouldn't be surprised if I set new personal highs. I feel like I could punch through a cement wall right now.
What's so unbelievable about a 2% pop after a 9% drop? I wouldn't be particularly surprised if was red by the end of the day, or at least red, again, tomorrow.
I drew a lot of lines on there, but basically I thought the support level was going to be the $9 line right above the SMA200 (yellow). Earlier this week, I thought it was $10 (top line). If you look at today's candlestick, it is currently very bullish with a whisker that touches exactly on the middle trendline. I guessed wrong.
But yes, very important to see how the day finishes out of course.
Well, hopefully that at least illustrates that there is "more art than science" to using those charts in the way you describe.
If the concepts you're using were particularly accurate then the market would break as it would get exploited on a massive scale.
ETA: also, as "support" numbers go, I'm pretty sure that most of that gets triggered by automatic buy-orders and sell-orders...and human beings like round numbers like $10 more than $9, when you're trading around the range we're looking at. If that's the way you want to trade, temper your charting with a healthy dose of basic psychology and herd mentality.
The only thing I have to add is that this thread, has more posts by Arch, Jone and Seth then any other thread in the history of NA, and I'd say 90 to 95% of NA has no idea what in the hell you guys are talking about.
My head hurts just reading this sometimes. Can you guys explain this stuff in Simple, dumbed down English?
My head hurts just reading this sometimes. Can you guys explain this stuff in Simple, dumbed down English?
Yes.
(1) Read up on the Boglehead portfolio
(2) Read up on the Permanent Portfolio
(3) After you invest in one, or the other, depending on your preferences, set up a play-money account and see if you're actually capable of beating the benchmarks (the vast majority of people won't)
i just bought 1k shares of gldx at $16.50. that is my investment of the week. huuuuuuge pullback in precious metals and the explorers fund has been crushed. time to get in!
All technicals I look for are there in downtrend analysis - dropped below 20 day accel. band, last hour close below 5hMA, new 3d low today, last price below 20dMA, new 3 wk low (end Jan 22nd), no 3 mo. high/low. I like this one too, though I don't trade anything that's been on the exchange < 1 yr.
i just bought 1k shares of gldx at $16.50. that is my investment of the week. huuuuuuge pullback in precious metals and the explorers fund has been crushed. time to get in!
All technicals I look for are there in downtrend analysis - dropped below 20 day accel. band, last hour close below 5hMA, new 3d low today, last price below 20dMA, new 3 wk low (end Jan 22nd), no 3 mo. high/low. I like this one too, though I don't trade anything that's been on the exchange < 1 yr.
It's also important to draw the strong distinction between investing in mining/exploration and the underlying commodity.
Well, hopefully that at least illustrates that there is "more art than science" to using those charts in the way you describe.
If the concepts you're using were particularly accurate then the market would break as it would get exploited on a massive scale.
ETA: also, as "support" numbers go, I'm pretty sure that most of that gets triggered by automatic buy-orders and sell-orders...and human beings like round numbers like $10 more than $9, when you're trading around the range we're looking at. If that's the way you want to trade, temper your charting with a healthy dose of basic psychology and herd mentality.
Charts are always right, they are just a depiction of facutal data. However, of course you can't expect that a stock will always bounce of support or stop at resistance, but it happens much more often than you think.
Look at Liz Claiborne, a clothing retailer with poor sales and an assload of debt, a company that no one in their right mind would want any part of. But there's a strong support channel dating back to Summer 2009 and look what happened:
A pure swing trader would have caught it there, though the fundamentals will probably carry it to the low 4s almost certainly. But the swing trader doesn't care, he took profits and ran.
This isn't a car dealership, whole numbers have little bearing in the market. You are right that most of the buying is triggered automatically, but those numbers are determined off the trend lines and not because of whole values.
Whole numbers have a lot of bearing if traders are setting their own stops, and not using computer algorithms to do it for them.
I really hope you don't take the trend lines as gospel. If they were, chartists would all be filthy rich, and/or computer algorithms would do the same thing faster and better and break the market.
They are useful for having some idea of what MIGHT happen, but in a fundamental sense if they were right more than half the time, and you used them correctly you'd be filthy rich within a year.
That's not the case for anybody I know of that uses chart trends as their primary means of trading.
Let me rephrase that: if it was possible to simply look at charts, and based on previous performance data determine what was going to happen (greater than 50% of the time), you would have a guaranteed system for beating the market, in general.
No such system exists that is known, and doing what chartists do has been around for a LONG time.
Whole numbers have a lot of bearing if traders are setting their own stops, and not using computer algorithms to do it for them.
I really hope you don't take the trend lines as gospel. If they were, chartists would all be filthy rich, and/or computer algorithms would do the same thing faster and better and break the market.
They are useful for having some idea of what MIGHT happen, but in a fundamental sense if they were right more than half the time, and you used them correctly you'd be filthy rich within a year.
That's not the case for anybody I know of that uses chart trends as their primary means of trading.
Well traders don't control the market, corporations do. When you have millions of dollars in your trades, that difference between $9.98 and $10.00 is huge. Of maybe they'll just go with $10 cause it's nice and pretty.... sigh.
Yes trend lines are not gospel, and no "perfect setup" is guaranteed. Like I've said, you make money in the stock market by playing high probability plays, then limiting your losses if it didn't work out.
The reason why "everyone is not rich" is because A) It takes money to make money and The learning curve is quite harsh. Many people can't stomach losses and then get out.
But you've never met a daytrader I guess? Go join a stock market forum and watch them. There are plenty of day traders who trade on charts alone and are indeed "filthy rich", at least by my definition. If it is so easy, hop aboard!
The vast majority of daytraders don't beat the market, though, that's the point. If the system always worked the way you've been made to believe, then the story would be different.
It doesn't take a lot of money to make money, IF you had a system that worked more than 50% of the time. If you had such a system, you could trade a stock reliably in both directions, on every swing, and as long as you started with enough money for gains to wash out the transaction costs for the first few transactions you could be rich by the end of the year.
Also, if the system actually worked, there wouldn't be a learning curve. The whole thing would be documented in nauseating detail, and the process could be fully automated. There wouldn't be losses, because the system would just work. But it doesn't.
ETA: there is an enormous body of research about how poorly market timing actually works, and how poorly day traders typically do, relative to the general market. It's not bullshit, in the least.
this whole thread just highlights many of the reasons why i have never liked jone. he knows everything about everything and will argue his point to death. he will take no advice and just argue. hell, he even argues with points that he made a week earlier, contradicting himself and making a complete 180. it makes no sense. it doesnt take money to make money is right... if you have $1k and are a god like jone, you could turn that 1 into 2, 2 into 4, 4 into 8, 8 into a billion, and then you can retire, post on NA all the time, and finally be as cool as you think you are!
Alright Seth, we get it, you hate me and I'm too smart for my own good. I get tired of reading it over and over so if you have nothing to add to this thread please post elsewhere.
Actually you have hit the nail on the head though, I'm looking to at least double my investments in my first year. And yes, I would like to retire early to mid 40s and be a part time reseller / stock investor in a perfect world.
But Arch is on the sidelines saying technicals don't work when he's never even tried them himself. I'm not arguing with a brick wall.
But Arch is on the sidelines saying technicals don't work when he's never even tried them himself. I'm not arguing with a brick wall.
When you're talking about pure numbers and things that are documented, it doesn't require trying them to know whether they work, or not.
ETA: and since when does not being a day trader equate to being "on the sidelines". [Further comment regarding market exposure redacted...no reason to start an e-penis measuring contest]
Look, if you don't like the things that I post, don't PM me about it and don't start a war in a thread. Just FOE ME so you don't have to read my posts! That's why Dain put it there! Use it!!!
i just bought 1k shares of gldx at $16.50. that is my investment of the week. huuuuuuge pullback in precious metals and the explorers fund has been crushed. time to get in!
All technicals I look for are there in downtrend analysis - dropped below 20 day accel. band, last hour close below 5hMA, new 3d low today, last price below 20dMA, new 3 wk low (end Jan 22nd), no 3 mo. high/low. I like this one too, though I don't trade anything that's been on the exchange < 1 yr.
Aw snap, I misread this. I thought you went short. I think GLDX is due for more pullback. I'm bearish on it and do not recommend a long entry @ 16.5. Sorry to be misleading.
I wasn't going to add anything else (said that before), but since I needed to correct myself, I do want to say that one can get filthy rich by learning to read charts. If it was easy, everyone would do it. Obviously that's not the case. But the reality is, it is possible--there is a success rate.
I'm out for real now. Best of luck to all you gentlemen.
i just bought 1k shares of gldx at $16.50. that is my investment of the week. huuuuuuge pullback in precious metals and the explorers fund has been crushed. time to get in!
All technicals I look for are there in downtrend analysis - dropped below 20 day accel. band, last hour close below 5hMA, new 3d low today, last price below 20dMA, new 3 wk low (end Jan 22nd), no 3 mo. high/low. I like this one too, though I don't trade anything that's been on the exchange < 1 yr.
Aw snap, I misread this. I think it's due for more pullback. Sorry to be misleading.
I wasn't going to add anything else (said that before), but since I needed to correct myself, I do want to say that you can get filthy rich by learning to read charts. If it was easy, everyone would do it. But the reality is, it is possible--there is a success rate.
I'm out for real now. Best of luck to all you gentlemen.
The problem is that you're attributing failing at being a chartist to some flaw with the user rather than the underlying system. I don't believe that to be the case, since there should be nothing subjective about it (and thus it would be "easy" if it's purely objective), at all, if you could trade successfully, more often than not, with charts alone, and not have luck involved.
But Arch is on the sidelines saying technicals don't work when he's never even tried them himself. I'm not arguing with a brick wall.
YOU have been the brick wall that people have argued against for the past __________ (insert the time that you have been a member on here)! you dont agree with anyone's points, EVER. no matter what they say. whatever you think is always right. good luck doubling your money year over year. you never cease to amaze me!
But Arch is on the sidelines saying technicals don't work when he's never even tried them himself. I'm not arguing with a brick wall.
YOU have been the brick wall that people have argued against for the past __________ (insert the time that you have been a member on here)! you dont agree with anyone's points, EVER. no matter what they say. whatever you think is always right. good luck doubling your money year over year. you never cease to amaze me!
Missed alot of the runup, but got some of AMRN today. Looking for a near-term target of around $10, then might just hop out. Figured it was a good time to buy after a 5 day profit taking pullback on low volume.
Looks like they've had excellent results from a MARINE study, where the drug did what it was supposed to do, without raising LDLs (Bad Cholesterols). Stock should run from that news alone (and buy out rumors) until the ANCHOR study results are reported, tentatively late first quarter 2011. That's when good results would send this one even higher, or bad results would drop it off a cliff.
It was about $10.82 off the top of my head. I'm honest... not gonna say I got it at the lowest back in March 09 but I did buy in at around march month end 2009 after I saw it popping up. I'm certainly happy with the move up to current $19.45. But I'm all about the Warren Buffet on that stock so I have no plans of selling it.
Comments
this entire thread is a bunch of horseshit, dude
Aw, give ya Johnny some credit. I caught 30c on that PWRD break below 21, and 1 point on the CIB break below 57. That's some damn fine scalping
Jone, read Mark Douglas' books Disciplined Trader and Trading in the Zone.
Unfuckingbelievable. Today is going to be a GREAT day at the gym, I wouldn't be surprised if I set new personal highs. I feel like I could punch through a cement wall right now.
What's so unbelievable about a 2% pop after a 9% drop? I wouldn't be particularly surprised if was red by the end of the day, or at least red, again, tomorrow.
Unfuckingbelievable. Today is going to be a GREAT day at the gym, I wouldn't be surprised if I set new personal highs. I feel like I could punch through a cement wall right now.
What's so unbelievable about a 2% pop after a 9% drop? I wouldn't be particularly surprised if was red by the end of the day, or at least red, again, tomorrow.
I drew a lot of lines on there, but basically I thought the support level was going to be the $9 line right above the SMA200 (yellow). Earlier this week, I thought it was $10 (top line). If you look at today's candlestick, it is currently very bullish with a whisker that touches exactly on the middle trendline. I guessed wrong.
But yes, very important to see how the day finishes out of course.
If the concepts you're using were particularly accurate then the market would break as it would get exploited on a massive scale.
ETA: also, as "support" numbers go, I'm pretty sure that most of that gets triggered by automatic buy-orders and sell-orders...and human beings like round numbers like $10 more than $9, when you're trading around the range we're looking at. If that's the way you want to trade, temper your charting with a healthy dose of basic psychology and herd mentality.
My head hurts just reading this sometimes. Can you guys explain this stuff in Simple, dumbed down English?
My head hurts just reading this sometimes. Can you guys explain this stuff in Simple, dumbed down English?
Yes.
(1) Read up on the Boglehead portfolio
(2) Read up on the Permanent Portfolio
(3) After you invest in one, or the other, depending on your preferences, set up a play-money account and see if you're actually capable of beating the benchmarks (the vast majority of people won't)
i just bought 1k shares of gldx at $16.50. that is my investment of the week. huuuuuuge pullback in precious metals and the explorers fund has been crushed. time to get in!
All technicals I look for are there in downtrend analysis - dropped below 20 day accel. band, last hour close below 5hMA, new 3d low today, last price below 20dMA, new 3 wk low (end Jan 22nd), no 3 mo. high/low. I like this one too, though I don't trade anything that's been on the exchange < 1 yr.
i just bought 1k shares of gldx at $16.50. that is my investment of the week. huuuuuuge pullback in precious metals and the explorers fund has been crushed. time to get in!
All technicals I look for are there in downtrend analysis - dropped below 20 day accel. band, last hour close below 5hMA, new 3d low today, last price below 20dMA, new 3 wk low (end Jan 22nd), no 3 mo. high/low. I like this one too, though I don't trade anything that's been on the exchange < 1 yr.
It's also important to draw the strong distinction between investing in mining/exploration and the underlying commodity.
Well, hopefully that at least illustrates that there is "more art than science" to using those charts in the way you describe.
If the concepts you're using were particularly accurate then the market would break as it would get exploited on a massive scale.
ETA: also, as "support" numbers go, I'm pretty sure that most of that gets triggered by automatic buy-orders and sell-orders...and human beings like round numbers like $10 more than $9, when you're trading around the range we're looking at. If that's the way you want to trade, temper your charting with a healthy dose of basic psychology and herd mentality.
Charts are always right, they are just a depiction of facutal data. However, of course you can't expect that a stock will always bounce of support or stop at resistance, but it happens much more often than you think.
Look at Liz Claiborne, a clothing retailer with poor sales and an assload of debt, a company that no one in their right mind would want any part of. But there's a strong support channel dating back to Summer 2009 and look what happened:
A pure swing trader would have caught it there, though the fundamentals will probably carry it to the low 4s almost certainly. But the swing trader doesn't care, he took profits and ran.
This isn't a car dealership, whole numbers have little bearing in the market. You are right that most of the buying is triggered automatically, but those numbers are determined off the trend lines and not because of whole values.
I really hope you don't take the trend lines as gospel. If they were, chartists would all be filthy rich, and/or computer algorithms would do the same thing faster and better and break the market.
They are useful for having some idea of what MIGHT happen, but in a fundamental sense if they were right more than half the time, and you used them correctly you'd be filthy rich within a year.
That's not the case for anybody I know of that uses chart trends as their primary means of trading.
No such system exists that is known, and doing what chartists do has been around for a LONG time.
Whole numbers have a lot of bearing if traders are setting their own stops, and not using computer algorithms to do it for them.
I really hope you don't take the trend lines as gospel. If they were, chartists would all be filthy rich, and/or computer algorithms would do the same thing faster and better and break the market.
They are useful for having some idea of what MIGHT happen, but in a fundamental sense if they were right more than half the time, and you used them correctly you'd be filthy rich within a year.
That's not the case for anybody I know of that uses chart trends as their primary means of trading.
Well traders don't control the market, corporations do. When you have millions of dollars in your trades, that difference between $9.98 and $10.00 is huge. Of maybe they'll just go with $10 cause it's nice and pretty.... sigh.
Yes trend lines are not gospel, and no "perfect setup" is guaranteed. Like I've said, you make money in the stock market by playing high probability plays, then limiting your losses if it didn't work out.
The reason why "everyone is not rich" is because A) It takes money to make money and
But you've never met a daytrader I guess? Go join a stock market forum and watch them. There are plenty of day traders who trade on charts alone and are indeed "filthy rich", at least by my definition. If it is so easy, hop aboard!
It doesn't take a lot of money to make money, IF you had a system that worked more than 50% of the time. If you had such a system, you could trade a stock reliably in both directions, on every swing, and as long as you started with enough money for gains to wash out the transaction costs for the first few transactions you could be rich by the end of the year.
Also, if the system actually worked, there wouldn't be a learning curve. The whole thing would be documented in nauseating detail, and the process could be fully automated. There wouldn't be losses, because the system would just work. But it doesn't.
ETA: there is an enormous body of research about how poorly market timing actually works, and how poorly day traders typically do, relative to the general market. It's not bullshit, in the least.
Actually you have hit the nail on the head though, I'm looking to at least double my investments in my first year. And yes, I would like to retire early to mid 40s and be a part time reseller / stock investor in a perfect world.
But Arch is on the sidelines saying technicals don't work when he's never even tried them himself. I'm not arguing with a brick wall.
But Arch is on the sidelines saying technicals don't work when he's never even tried them himself. I'm not arguing with a brick wall.
When you're talking about pure numbers and things that are documented, it doesn't require trying them to know whether they work, or not.
ETA: and since when does not being a day trader equate to being "on the sidelines".
[Further comment regarding market exposure redacted...no reason to start an e-penis measuring contest]
i just bought 1k shares of gldx at $16.50. that is my investment of the week. huuuuuuge pullback in precious metals and the explorers fund has been crushed. time to get in!
All technicals I look for are there in downtrend analysis - dropped below 20 day accel. band, last hour close below 5hMA, new 3d low today, last price below 20dMA, new 3 wk low (end Jan 22nd), no 3 mo. high/low. I like this one too, though I don't trade anything that's been on the exchange < 1 yr.
Aw snap, I misread this. I thought you went short. I think GLDX is due for more pullback. I'm bearish on it and do not recommend a long entry @ 16.5. Sorry to be misleading.
I wasn't going to add anything else (said that before), but since I needed to correct myself, I do want to say that one can get filthy rich by learning to read charts. If it was easy, everyone would do it. Obviously that's not the case. But the reality is, it is possible--there is a success rate.
I'm out for real now. Best of luck to all you gentlemen.
i just bought 1k shares of gldx at $16.50. that is my investment of the week. huuuuuuge pullback in precious metals and the explorers fund has been crushed. time to get in!
All technicals I look for are there in downtrend analysis - dropped below 20 day accel. band, last hour close below 5hMA, new 3d low today, last price below 20dMA, new 3 wk low (end Jan 22nd), no 3 mo. high/low. I like this one too, though I don't trade anything that's been on the exchange < 1 yr.
Aw snap, I misread this. I think it's due for more pullback. Sorry to be misleading.
I wasn't going to add anything else (said that before), but since I needed to correct myself, I do want to say that you can get filthy rich by learning to read charts. If it was easy, everyone would do it. But the reality is, it is possible--there is a success rate.
I'm out for real now. Best of luck to all you gentlemen.
The problem is that you're attributing failing at being a chartist to some flaw with the user rather than the underlying system. I don't believe that to be the case, since there should be nothing subjective about it (and thus it would be "easy" if it's purely objective), at all, if you could trade successfully, more often than not, with charts alone, and not have luck involved.
But Arch is on the sidelines saying technicals don't work when he's never even tried them himself. I'm not arguing with a brick wall.
YOU have been the brick wall that people have argued against for the past __________ (insert the time that you have been a member on here)! you dont agree with anyone's points, EVER. no matter what they say. whatever you think is always right. good luck doubling your money year over year. you never cease to amaze me!
But Arch is on the sidelines saying technicals don't work when he's never even tried them himself. I'm not arguing with a brick wall.
YOU have been the brick wall that people have argued against for the past __________ (insert the time that you have been a member on here)! you dont agree with anyone's points, EVER. no matter what they say. whatever you think is always right. good luck doubling your money year over year. you never cease to amaze me!
Even Madoff only offered 25% APY
Looks like they've had excellent results from a MARINE study, where the drug did what it was supposed to do, without raising LDLs (Bad Cholesterols). Stock should run from that news alone (and buy out rumors) until the ANCHOR study results are reported, tentatively late first quarter 2011. That's when good results would send this one even higher, or bad results would drop it off a cliff.
WOW I'm loving my GE today. I bought in around 1.5 years ago at $11ish X 1,000. Once they get the ok to pop that dividend later in the year whoo yeah!
I'm really surprised your GE buy-in didn't happen down around $7.
Out of curiosity, what kind of allocation do you have? Are you purely invested in individual stocks/bonds? And if so, how many make up the portfolio?