Yeah, SOL was my first real stock, so I was clueless on profit taking, I'll admit that. But when you watch a $1k+ vaporize into $250, you'll learn the lesson. But initially I was down $500 on that stock, so my reason for selling there was "Any profit is a good profit."
It's just so much to learn at once, you really have to take baby steps. I haven't even gotten into option calls and puts yet, which is one direction I'd eventually like to go. Haven't messed with shorting either, I'm still new to the scene.
Personally, I feel like there are enough "regular" plays to be made that shorting can either be avoided entirely, or can be emulated for cheaper with options trading. The idea of literally borrowing money for a high risk investment doesn't sit well with me, at a fundamental level, and the downsides of a short are almost universally more hazardous than the benefits.
I'm pretty sure that most of the options trading though, requires you to have positions in the stocks in question, already. Maybe I'm mistaken, or only have a partial understanding though.
So back on a more technical question, are you actually using preset trailing stops, now? Or are you still winging it and manually triggering your exits?
Both ways can work, depending on your level of personal discipline, but I would think if you're really subscribing to the concept of being a chartist, that having hard numbers would mandate automating your strategy to avoid knee-jerk issues and buys that are get in too early.
Another thing to take into consideration on EK, though, is that they did just lose a lawsuit with Apple/RIM, so their drop is not entirely arbitrary (though may well be too far a fall).
Any thoughts about what the actual damage that news SHOULD cause would be? I gather that the drop occurred because the stock price was formerly predicated on them winning the lawsuit, instead.
Ever since EK stopped paying the juicy dividend it used to pay I won't touch it. I just don't think they are really going to survive? How many people actually use film anymore? I know they do other things but still.
The one thing I was told about shorting stocks that has always stuck with me is... When you buy a stock if it goes down you can only lose the money you put into it. When you short a stock there is no ceiling, it could go up forever and your loses could bankrupt you. Personally I hate the idea of shorting. If everyone is in it to make money I'd sure like to see everyone betting on good outcomes, not betting on bad. I've always had the visual of the short seller as the A**hole at the craps table who ruins everyone's fun by betting the "don't come" line. You know the person you want to just punch in the face while you're rolling.
That's a good point about EK, but Jonas isn't talking about a long-term play, just trying to catch a couple of days worth of action. A week or two, tops.
Personally, I have a bias against EK since my boss' dad used to work for them and they screwed him pretty hard.
ek is NOT a good long term investment. thats like saying blockbuster is a great long term investment. it appears that jone is in it for trading, not holding long term. in that instance, EK does look like it has at least a 10% upside at the 3.55 level. i dont trade anymore. im long in all of the stocks that i invest in, or i have a clear strategy... i may buy something as it goes down and then get out once i am up 15% (whether that comes tomorrow or in 5 months). even on my long holdings, if i am up a ton, i have no problem in selling, letting it pull back, and buying back in. short term gains vs long term gains have a big difference in tax implications, but id much rather have the money in my pocket and realize the gain... on the other hand, if i am long in a stock and it drops, i continue to buy as it falls. it got me in deep trouble with BAC 2 years ago, but eventually, it popped back up and i made a profit on it! okay, enough rambling
Been working from home today so I wasn't following the market that closely. But I've stayed in NXG despite the small pullback, worst case I'll hop out where I got in. I still think it has a decent shot of running back towards $3 though.
As for EK, it was up 5% early this morning, and has done nothing the rest of the day. Looks like it might close only up 3%. I think that's still a bearish move based on the daily chart, so I'm going to wait it out further. Think it has a much better chance of dropping down to $3.55 or so rather than gapping up again tomorrow morning. Should be good to watch.
Well NXG is bouncing back a little, glad I didn't panic sell yesterday.
EK is also continuing down today as I expected, I'm watching for a $3.55-$3.60 entry point. But I'm still going to be cautious, as it could easily blow through that too. Gotta watch the timing here.
Ford also presents a nice buying opportunity after this pullback is done. I don't want any part of it until it stabilizes though, it has blown through all support levels today. I might dabble into options here and buy some calls for 3-6 months out, I expect it to move sideways for the next month or so. Feb calls would be too risky.
There is a good chance that market-wide we've peaked for awhile, in a macro sense. There has been an enormous bull run over the last year, or so, and the piper has to get paid.
Any pull-back you're seeing in your stock-specific analysis needs to be tempered by the macro situation.
Yeah, obviously some stocks are more intertwined with the DOW than others. Especially blue chippers.
Ironically enough, 3 of my 4 stocks are actually green for the day, despite about 90% of my watchlist being down. TNK, AMRN and NXG all green right now, even if TNK is still slightly below the $12.00 spot where I entered. Might have jumped the gun on that one, but I still think it'll be a solid $14-$15 come summer, plus the 10% divy will certainly help.
I still have not taken any position in EK yet, just watching that one tick by. We've also watched Ford get slaughtered, where do you think the buy target is for them? It has broken all of the current support levels, and I don't see anything until the SMA200 around $14. It can't possibly drop that far can it?
Either way, gotta let the volume fizzle out before making a move. Definitely should present a ripe buying opportunity though if you are patient.
They are worth grabbing, probably for the medium/long-term, once it shakes out, and not just for a quick-turn-around. The long-term prospect is probably too heavily wedded to oil prices and mideast turmoil, though, to be any kind of safe.
Have you set a new target on EK, or you planning to sit that one out? It seems like they've been wallowing at the same level for awhile now.
Yeah Ford is intertwined closely with the DOW, so if the DOW goes bearish, Ford will most likely stagnate or lose value. Well aware of that.
As for EK, I'm really on the fence. It seems that not only was their most recent quarter bad, but their 2011 guidance is even lower. So even if $3.50 represents a 52 week low, it could be doomed to trade even lower over the next year. I'm really not sure what I'll do there, just have to wait it out and see. Not interested in touching it above $3.55 though, I'm sure about that.
Although this has become almost a day trader's discussion lately I'd like to pull it back to the long-term Buffet styler's like myself for a moment.
Seth I'm curious as to your thoughts on IBM. I bought in at $130.8999 and today's it up over $163. Granted due to the share price I only bought 200 shares but that's still a tidy profit. It pays $2.60 per year in dividends as well and they have consistently been a dividend raiser in the past. With alot of analysts hot on Blue Chip Tech names including my broker I think there is room to run, but I haven't really studied this one enough to see a potential top to that run. I'd like to keep this one long-term but I'm curious to hear other's thoughts on where you see the resistance level on this one, just in case I were to decide to take some profits on it.
I just wanted to say thanks to you guys for this thread. I've always been interested in trading a bit but have always been so busy that never got around to researching what I needed to get started.
I would really like to, at some point, quit the whole "living paycheck to paycheck" deal and put something aside that can hopefully work FOR me eventually.
erik, i still have IBM at $97. it is the only tech stock i own. every time i feel like pulling out, i decide to stay in (and she hasnt gotten pregnant yet). it is a very solid play and i can see it running further. i may take some off the table at some point soon, but i will definitely leave some in there. i would not be a buyer at this level, but i would definitely hold it.
im a liar. i have intel also... i had synaptics a while ago when it dropped to the low 20s on a downgrade, then when it got over 30, i dumped that. i currently only hold ibm and intel
i just bought 1k shares of gldx at $16.50. that is my investment of the week. huuuuuuge pullback in precious metals and the explorers fund has been crushed. time to get in!
All technicals I look for are there in downtrend analysis - dropped below 20 day accel. band, last hour close below 5hMA, new 3d low today, last price below 20dMA, new 3 wk low (end Jan 22nd), no 3 mo. high/low. I like this one too, though I don't trade anything that's been on the exchange < 1 yr.
Aw snap, I misread this. I thought you went short. I think GLDX is due for more pullback. I'm bearish on it and do not recommend a long entry @ 16.5. Sorry to be misleading.
I wasn't going to add anything else (said that before), but since I needed to correct myself, I do want to say that one can get filthy rich by learning to read charts. If it was easy, everyone would do it. Obviously that's not the case. But the reality is, it is possible--there is a success rate.
I'm out for real now. Best of luck to all you gentlemen.
i did not short this. however, i did pull 500 shares out at 17.85 a minute ago.
I'm guessing that your GLDX run is just closely tied to the spot value of gold? I noticed my NXG shares went up today at the same exact time as your GLDX did. And it looks like Gold shot up from $1,332 to $1,352 within a couple of minutes which caused all of this.
Grabbed 500 shares of TLAB @ $5.45 today. Would have liked to get them around $5.40, but pulled the trigger after it touched $5.45 for the second time this morning.
Excellent potential in a company with zero debt, a ton of cash and trading near book value. Sell-off was based on slightly missing earnings, and loss of revenue stream from a contract with AT&T. Definitely like the upward potential here, while the downside potential is minimal.
Grabbed some shares of Ford this morning at $16.15. Not looking to day trade this one, just was waiting for a good entry point on the long term play. I bought into the strength rather than guessing the bottom, let's see how it goes.
This is the greatest thread idea..truely, how did I miss this...great Idea Jone!...What about an option on vz for the feb 10th iphone release and monthly sales report and they sold out on preorders the first day feb(3rd) 36.10 current with a flucutation between 35 and 37...maybe there arn't a lot of options traders?
Other note...does anyone listen to or heard of Harry Dent Jr.?
This is the greatest thread idea..truely, how did I miss this...great Idea Jone!...What about an option on vz for the feb 10th iphone release and monthly sales report and they sold out on preorders the first day feb(3rd) 36.10 current with a flucutation between 35 and 37...maybe there arn't a lot of options traders?
Other note...does anyone listen to or heard of Harry Dent Jr.?
If EVO didn't move Sprint, I'm not counting on iPhone to move Verizon. Especially since who knows what kind of subsidy money they're going to hemorrhage to offer that product. Great for Apple, of course, so-so for Vz.
Comments
It's just so much to learn at once, you really have to take baby steps. I haven't even gotten into option calls and puts yet, which is one direction I'd eventually like to go. Haven't messed with shorting either, I'm still new to the scene.
I'm pretty sure that most of the options trading though, requires you to have positions in the stocks in question, already. Maybe I'm mistaken, or only have a partial understanding though.
So back on a more technical question, are you actually using preset trailing stops, now? Or are you still winging it and manually triggering your exits?
Both ways can work, depending on your level of personal discipline, but I would think if you're really subscribing to the concept of being a chartist, that having hard numbers would mandate automating your strategy to avoid knee-jerk issues and buys that are get in too early.
Any thoughts about what the actual damage that news SHOULD cause would be? I gather that the drop occurred because the stock price was formerly predicated on them winning the lawsuit, instead.
The one thing I was told about shorting stocks that has always stuck with me is... When you buy a stock if it goes down you can only lose the money you put into it. When you short a stock there is no ceiling, it could go up forever and your loses could bankrupt you. Personally I hate the idea of shorting. If everyone is in it to make money I'd sure like to see everyone betting on good outcomes, not betting on bad. I've always had the visual of the short seller as the A**hole at the craps table who ruins everyone's fun by betting the "don't come" line. You know the person you want to just punch in the face while you're rolling.
Personally, I have a bias against EK since my boss' dad used to work for them and they screwed him pretty hard.
As for EK, it was up 5% early this morning, and has done nothing the rest of the day. Looks like it might close only up 3%. I think that's still a bearish move based on the daily chart, so I'm going to wait it out further. Think it has a much better chance of dropping down to $3.55 or so rather than gapping up again tomorrow morning. Should be good to watch.
EK is also continuing down today as I expected, I'm watching for a $3.55-$3.60 entry point. But I'm still going to be cautious, as it could easily blow through that too. Gotta watch the timing here.
Ford also presents a nice buying opportunity after this pullback is done. I don't want any part of it until it stabilizes though, it has blown through all support levels today. I might dabble into options here and buy some calls for 3-6 months out, I expect it to move sideways for the next month or so. Feb calls would be too risky.
Any pull-back you're seeing in your stock-specific analysis needs to be tempered by the macro situation.
Ironically enough, 3 of my 4 stocks are actually green for the day, despite about 90% of my watchlist being down. TNK, AMRN and NXG all green right now, even if TNK is still slightly below the $12.00 spot where I entered. Might have jumped the gun on that one, but I still think it'll be a solid $14-$15 come summer, plus the 10% divy will certainly help.
Either way, gotta let the volume fizzle out before making a move. Definitely should present a ripe buying opportunity though if you are patient.
Have you set a new target on EK, or you planning to sit that one out? It seems like they've been wallowing at the same level for awhile now.
As for EK, I'm really on the fence. It seems that not only was their most recent quarter bad, but their 2011 guidance is even lower. So even if $3.50 represents a 52 week low, it could be doomed to trade even lower over the next year. I'm really not sure what I'll do there, just have to wait it out and see. Not interested in touching it above $3.55 though, I'm sure about that.
Seth I'm curious as to your thoughts on IBM. I bought in at $130.8999 and today's it up over $163. Granted due to the share price I only bought 200 shares but that's still a tidy profit. It pays $2.60 per year in dividends as well and they have consistently been a dividend raiser in the past. With alot of analysts hot on Blue Chip Tech names including my broker I think there is room to run, but I haven't really studied this one enough to see a potential top to that run. I'd like to keep this one long-term but I'm curious to hear other's thoughts on where you see the resistance level on this one, just in case I were to decide to take some profits on it.
But in terms of companies that continue to make money hand-over-fist, they're definitely up there.
I would really like to, at some point, quit the whole "living paycheck to paycheck" deal and put something aside that can hopefully work FOR me eventually.
It looks like I've got a lot of reading to do...
i just bought 1k shares of gldx at $16.50. that is my investment of the week. huuuuuuge pullback in precious metals and the explorers fund has been crushed. time to get in!
All technicals I look for are there in downtrend analysis - dropped below 20 day accel. band, last hour close below 5hMA, new 3d low today, last price below 20dMA, new 3 wk low (end Jan 22nd), no 3 mo. high/low. I like this one too, though I don't trade anything that's been on the exchange < 1 yr.
Aw snap, I misread this. I thought you went short. I think GLDX is due for more pullback. I'm bearish on it and do not recommend a long entry @ 16.5. Sorry to be misleading.
I wasn't going to add anything else (said that before), but since I needed to correct myself, I do want to say that one can get filthy rich by learning to read charts. If it was easy, everyone would do it. Obviously that's not the case. But the reality is, it is possible--there is a success rate.
I'm out for real now. Best of luck to all you gentlemen.
i did not short this. however, i did pull 500 shares out at 17.85 a minute ago.
Excellent potential in a company with zero debt, a ton of cash and trading near book value. Sell-off was based on slightly missing earnings, and loss of revenue stream from a contract with AT&T. Definitely like the upward potential here, while the downside potential is minimal.
This is the greatest thread idea..truely, how did I miss this...great Idea Jone!...What about an option on vz for the feb 10th iphone release and monthly sales report and they sold out on preorders the first day feb(3rd) 36.10 current with a flucutation between 35 and 37...maybe there arn't a lot of options traders?
Other note...does anyone listen to or heard of Harry Dent Jr.?
This is the greatest thread idea..truely, how did I miss this...great Idea Jone!...What about an option on vz for the feb 10th iphone release and monthly sales report and they sold out on preorders the first day feb(3rd) 36.10 current with a flucutation between 35 and 37...maybe there arn't a lot of options traders?
Other note...does anyone listen to or heard of Harry Dent Jr.?
If EVO didn't move Sprint, I'm not counting on iPhone to move Verizon. Especially since who knows what kind of subsidy money they're going to hemorrhage to offer that product. Great for Apple, of course, so-so for Vz.